https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/ will be resolved as ambiguous or cancelled before resolution ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sortega on 2021-09-07; known on 2036-01-01.

At least one of the Apollo astronauts will become a centenarian ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2036-01-01.

In the United States, manual labor will make up a larger percentage of the total workforce in 2035 than it does in 2015. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-14; known on 2036-01-01.

“That the average level of innovation between 2025 and 2035 exceeds the average level of innovation of the past 5 years (2002-2007.) I suggest using metrics as determined and published by the US Dept of Commerce, Economics & Statistics Administration as d ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2036-01-01.

The increasing popularity of drinking water in the developed world is due to a biological adaptation, rather than a cultural one. This statement will be the conclusion of a study published in a credible scientific journal before 2036. ( 3% confidence )

Created by Philip_W on 2014-11-04; known on 2036-01-01.

By the end 2035, a major mathematical conjecture will be made by a computer with no substantial input from humans. ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-09; known on 2036-01-01.

On my 45th birthday, I still won't have any child. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-06; known on 2036-01-05.

Computer Scientists obsolete ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-27; known on 2036-04-27.

Ted Cruz will be linked to a sex scandal. ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-16; known on 2036-07-17.

A state will try to secede from the US in the next 25 years ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-29; known on 2036-08-29.

Within twenty (20) years there will be an option of grouping predictions on PredictionBook, and finding the average right to wrong ratio of them ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-10-07; known on 2036-10-07.

Consensus will be that Koomey's Law no longer applies in 25 years. ( 56% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-10; known on 2036-10-10.

d309242507b92a022ce20a1f0079b8c3 paying 5000$/mo in property tax ( 3% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-01; known on 2036-11-28.

d309242507b92a022ce20a1f0079b8c3 paying < 300$/mo property tax ( 1% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-01; known on 2036-11-28.

d309242507b92a022ce20a1f0079b8c3 is still alive ( 33% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-01; known on 2036-11-28.

d309242507b92a022ce20a1f0079b8c3 is still in same house ( 5% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-01; known on 2036-11-28.

Openly atheist POTUS ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-06; known on 2036-12-31.

Humanity still a thing in 2036 ( 89% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-13; known on 2036-12-31.

“Alzheimer's disease is fully curable” by 2037 ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-27; known on 2037-01-01.

At least one commercial fusion reactor adding power to the grid by 2036. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-26; known on 2037-01-01.

by 2037, a devastating earthquake has hit the west coast of the United States ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2037-01-01.

MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next twenty years. ( 47% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-03; known on 2037-01-01.

“[In 2036] The great top-down nation-state will be only cosmetically alive… The pre-modernist robust model of city-states… will prevail” — Nassim Taleb ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2010-11-26; known on 2037-01-01.

Predictionbook gets taken over by prediction market fetishists(rule 34), most new predictions are of a sexual nature ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-13; known on 2037-01-01.

1.5 trillion $ in war tribute extracted from Iraq in oil “profit sharing” agreement to the US ( 22% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-25; known on 2037-01-01.

“[In 2036, most] Companies that are currently large, debt-laden, listed on an exchange… and paying bonuses will be gone.” – Nassim Taleb (I interpret this less literally to large cap companies as usually structured now, 2010, based on context – NS) ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2010-11-28; known on 2037-01-01.

Debian outlives Ubuntu as a project. Ubuntu 'ceases to exist' or 'gets bought out and no longer offers FLOSS OS' or 'ceases all development' while Debian remains active ( 53% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-08; known on 2037-01-02.

Polygamy is legal in the UK (ie. Marriages between more than two people are permitted to take place within the country) ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by penten on 2017-01-03; known on 2037-01-03.

I will not smoke a (tobacco containing) cigarette for the next 25 years. ( 92% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-07; known on 2037-09-07.

I will not smoke a tobacco product for the next 25 years. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2037-09-07.

I am extradited to serve time in a US prison/black site ( 3% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-06; known on 2037-10-05.

Within twenty (20) years there will be an option of seeing whether a Prediction Book user is banned or not ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-10-21; known on 2037-10-21.

Until the end of 2037, at no point in time will the Republican and Democratic parties combined have less than 96% of members of each of the House, Senate, governors and control of legislative chambers (non-partisan ones excluded). ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-04-09; known on 2037-12-31.

Until the end of 2037, at no point in time will a person elected or otherwise selected by a political party, other than the Republican and Democratic parties, hold the office of President of the United States. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-04-09; known on 2037-12-31.

At least one large website (alexa 10k) or fortune-500 company's services will be disrupted by the Y38 problem ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-09-22; known on 2038-01-21.

In 25 years, infanticide will be legal in at least one U.S. state. ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RobertLumley on 2013-04-04; known on 2038-04-04.

It will be generally agreed that a meeting occurred between Trump and the Secret Service during 2016 August regarding his comments on the second amendment. ( 90% confidence; 5 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-08-11; known on 2038-08-11.

Runaway methane release from permafrost and other sources to result in near extinction or imminent extinction of humanity by August 15, 2038 ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-08-02; known on 2038-08-15.

Todas las pwrsonas usaremos IA al menos una vez en su vida en Peru, segun Marcos ( 60% confidence )

Created by jhairguz.t@gmail.com on 2018-09-23; known on 2038-09-23.

By 2038 stunting for under 5 children will be under 7.8% globally. ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-21; known on 2038-12-25.

By 2038 0% of children will be underweight in Bharat. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-16; known on 2038-12-25.

By 2038 less than 3.6% children under 5 will be underweight globally. ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-21; known on 2038-12-25.

At least one current core researcher at MIRI will turn to terrorism in order to buy more time for MIRI/others to save humanity ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-05; known on 2039-01-01.

Humans will land on mars between 2030 and 2038. ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2039-01-01.

In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug ( 9% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Konkvistador on 2011-10-24; known on 2039-01-01.

Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored. ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-25; known on 2039-08-25.

Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 20 years. ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by krazemon on 2019-09-15; known on 2039-09-15.

oil consumption will remain at or above current levels for at least 20 years ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by kjaques on 2019-11-30; known on 2039-11-30.