Superintelligence will be created within 30 years from 7th May 2015

Created by AlexLundborg on 2015-05-07; known on 2045-05-08

• AlexLundborg estimated 33% on 2015-05-07
• WilliamKiely estimated 4% and said “I’ve read Nick Bostrom’s book “Superintelligence”. I think unfriendly AI is a serious concern, but don’t think it or any other kind of general superintelligence will arrive this soon.” on 2015-05-08
• timujin estimated 10% on 2015-05-08
• JoshuaZ said “For our purposes what does superintelligence mean? Do genetically modified people with more intelligence than any prior human count or do we mean only superintelligent AI? ” on 2015-05-08
• Unknowns estimated 25% on 2015-05-09
• earfluffy estimated 3% on 2015-05-11
• PseudonymousUser estimated 33% on 2016-01-12
• themusicgod1 estimated 92% on 2016-06-24
• pranomostro estimated 40% and said “That’s around 10 years below expert estimates.” on 2019-03-15