Kea (Nestor Notabilis) to go extinct in the wild by 2030 ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.

Kakapo will go extinct by 2030 ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.

Solar Energy to reach 25% of total world energy generation by 2030 ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.

LSD to no longer be a Schedule I drug by 2030 ( 40% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.

There will be more Scarlet Macaws in 2030 than 2010 ( 20% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.

There to be more kakapo in 2030 than 2010 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.

There to be more orcas in 2030 than 2010 ( 10% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.

Portland, OR to have higher population in 2030 than 2010 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.

At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030 ( 28% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.

At least 10% of 18-year olds in the US will be unschooled by 2030 ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.

Bitcoin will collapse as a currency by 2030 ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2031-01-01.

The three “Deep South” states — Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul – to secede from Brazil sometime before 2030 ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2031-01-01.

“China will be 1/3rd desert before the 2030s and running out of water in many places” – Alex Lightman ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2031-01-01.

North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030 ( 19% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2031-01-01.

Global warming: warming of 2 C in under 15 years. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by pkfalu92 on 2016-12-04; known on 2031-01-01.

The European Union will start raising Union-level taxes (similar to US' federal taxation) by 2030 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-19; known on 2031-01-01.

By January 1, 2031, known that there is no odd perfect number less than 10^2500 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-06-11; known on 2031-01-01.

Oil will account for a lower raw amount of energy consumption in 2030 than in 2020 ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2031-01-01.

The Riemann Hypothesis will be proven before 2031 ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-20; known on 2031-01-01.

Trump to be diagnosed with dementia sometime by 2030 ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-02; known on 2031-01-01.

Minnesota to break the longest Democrat-voting streak by 2030 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-03; known on 2031-01-01.

There will be more kakapo in 2030 than in 2020 ( 80% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2031-01-01.

Will Sirocco the kakapo die before 2030? ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2031-01-01.

Will Issa Rice become a wizard? ( 60% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2031-01-01.

Chen Ning Yang will die before Tsung Dao Lee ( 55% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.

There will be a magnitude 7+ earthquake in SF bay area between 2020 and 2030 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.

[The next interstellar object will be discovered] before 2031 ( 95% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2031-01-01.

[The next interstellar object will be discovered] before 2024 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2031-01-01.

[The next interstellar object will be discovered] before 2023 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2031-01-01.

[The next interstellar object will be discovered] before 2022 ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2031-01-01.

By 2030 consensus will be that low Earth orbit is undergoing Kessler syndrome. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2031-01-01.

Rich Sutton: AI by 'roughly 2030' ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-10; known on 2031-01-01.

Mass casaulties (>3000) from bioterrorism by 2030 ( 51% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-30; known on 2031-01-01.

By January 1, 2031, large-language models combined with automated proof checking systems like Lean and Coq will have contributed to proofs which have appeared in major math journals. ( 53% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-21; known on 2031-01-01.

Acemoglu wins a Nobel Prize by 2030 ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2031-01-01.

A “New Keynesian” economist wins a Nobel Prize by 2030, e.g. Summers, Mankiw, Yellen, Woodford, etc. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2031-01-01.

United States institutes price controls on physicians before 2030 ( 30% confidence )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-06-14; known on 2031-01-01.

A human has set foot on Mars ( 9% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-11; known on 2031-01-01.

US obesity rate above 31.6% in 2030 ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-26; known on 2031-01-01.

Climate change catastrophes cause more property damage over than 2020-2030 period than the purported $300bn USD (as reported by Time via Bloomberg, october 24, 2019) that would need to be invested to limit the worst of the effects. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by kallman on 2020-01-02; known on 2031-01-01.

US will ally with Iran by 2030 – Alex Lightman ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2031-01-01.

Cascadia megathrust earthquake (of magnitude 8+) to hit Seattle before 2030 ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2031-01-01.

There will be a Second US civil war before 2031 ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2031-01-02.

4% of my 2031 savings (including rental property value) will be greater than my 2031 expenses ( 65% confidence )

Created by trishume on 2016-04-07; known on 2031-01-16.

At 30, I will have never been married. ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by ejh3141 on 2020-02-20; known on 2031-02-04.

I will be awesome in 20 years. ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by zwsaz1 on 2011-03-22; known on 2031-03-22.

Either mean, median or mode truck drivers in either globally or US will make <= .027 BTC/hr or equivalent ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-26; known on 2031-04-26.

Will there be at least another 3 episodes of the Hello Internet podcast? The Podcast had a rather irregular schedule, but there hasn't been another episode since the 28th February 2020. ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Morpheus on 2021-05-14; known on 2031-05-15.