Direct commercial access to the web through a brain link by 2030 ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-12; known on 2030-01-01.

I predict that humans will land on mars by 2030 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Bacon1001 on 2018-01-25; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2030, there will be commercial and/or free applications/overlays that will present the user with lie/truth probabilities of a talking person – useful e.g. for politicians in TV debates. It could be video analysis, augmented reality overlays or somethin ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by silacoid on 2015-07-16; known on 2030-01-01.

Meat and/or dairy products from cellular agriculture will be commercially available by January 1st, 2030. ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.

Assuming such services are still in demand, by 2030, more than 99% of court reporters, captioners, and CAT and CART providers in the U.S. will be replaced by automatic machines. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by quintopia on 2015-05-11; known on 2030-01-01.

Turing Testable AIs will be publicly available by 2030. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Prickman on 2020-01-07; known on 2030-01-01.

“A nuclear explosive weapon will be used in war or terrorism.” ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2030-01-01.

United States imports at least 500,000 physicians before 2030 ( 70% confidence )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-06-14; known on 2030-01-01.

By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ( 93% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-24; known on 2030-01-01.

Level 5 self-driving air vehicles will be available by 2030. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.

Péter Nádas will win a Nobel Literature prize before 2030. ( 10% confidence )

Created by korakos on 2020-11-28; known on 2030-01-01.

At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ( 23% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-22; known on 2030-01-01.

A company with its main activity being cultured meat and/or dairy products will be valued at >= 1bn 2020USD by January 1st, 2030. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.

People in the West will be largely “living in 15-minute prison camps, eating bugs, and living in pods.” ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-08; known on 2030-01-01.

Covid vaccines will be recognized as causing ongoing health issues of at least 3 months duration in from 1 in 500 and 1 in 5000 vaccinated individuals ( 22% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by jasticE on 2021-12-26; known on 2030-01-01.

SpaceX Starship to not have any crewed launches before 2030. ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-15; known on 2030-01-01.

The Sl4.org email archives will not be publicly available as text/HTML at sl4.org by 2030. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-11; known on 2030-01-01.

“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.” ( 35% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2030, at least 70% of jobs existing in 2015 will be replaced with automation. ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-20; known on 2030-01-01.

The Russian Federation will disintegrate in the next 15 years, defined by either the current amount of land broadly recognized as Russia reducing by 20% or a clear state of anarchy and general collapse. ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-19; known on 2030-01-01.

Robots able to clean a whole bathroom will be commercially available by 2030 ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jasticE on 2015-04-19; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2030, the consensus in the United States will be that 9/11 was an inside job with US government involvement. Consensus to be determined by at least 60% of the US believing it, or it to be widely accepted in some other fashion if the situation has broke ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-13; known on 2030-01-01.

Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ( 41% confidence; 20 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-13; known on 2030-01-01.

In no less than ten years, there will be a new “dotcom bubble” Uber either will change drastically their business model or fail in this timeline. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Athosvcc on 2020-07-10; known on 2030-01-01.

6th edition of Dungeons and Dragons to come out by January 1, 2030. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-06; known on 2030-01-01.

Artificial Superintelligence Emerges before 1st of January 2030 ( 52% confidence )

Created by rudyon on 2023-04-01; known on 2030-01-01.

Avi gets a bachelor's degree from UW ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-04-08; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2030, Taiwan will be a part of China, without being a war. ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by danpop on 2016-02-11; known on 2030-01-01.

The rest of the European countries will introduce visa för Sweden by 2030 ( 95% confidence )

Created by d8e8fca2dc0f896fd7cb4cb0031ba249@mailinator.com on 2018-06-23; known on 2030-01-01.

I will lose my virginity before the Turing test is passed (operationalized as the $25,000 Loebner Prize) ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known on 2030-01-01.

A peace treaty ends the arab-israeli conflict before 2030. ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-08; known on 2030-01-01.

'By 2030, we are likely to have developed no-frills brain-machine interfaces, allowing the paralysed to dance in their thought-controlled exoskeleton suits.' —David Eagleman ( 32% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2030, there will be fewer than 3.5 million people employed in the US as truck drivers, as autonomous vehicles penetrate the market. ( 82% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by pkfalu92 on 2016-07-26; known on 2030-01-01.

Övriga Europeiska länder kommer att införa visum för Sverige före år 2030 ( 95% confidence )

Created by d8e8fca2dc0f896fd7cb4cb0031ba249@mailinator.com on 2018-06-23; known on 2030-01-01.

P vs. NP will be still unsolved at the end of this decade. ( 96% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Leifa on 2022-07-11; known on 2030-01-01.

The U.S. will re-institute the draft during this decade. ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2020-01-05; known on 2030-01-01.

SpinLaunch launches no payloads (test or otherwise, suborbital or other) by 2030. ( 85% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.

Before 2030, more than 35% of US-Americans will have no religious identity (not counting babies). ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2030-01-01.

An hyperloop will be in use before 2030. ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-01-26; known on 2030-01-01.

“SaskPower plans to reduce emissions by 40 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030. By that year, it wants to have added an additional 1,600 megawatts of wind power over 2017 levels.” ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by saskboy on 2017-08-31; known on 2030-01-01.

“China will break apart by 2030” ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2030-01-01.

Above 45°C temperature record in germany as of 2030 ( 20% confidence )

Created by atzeje on 2023-06-23; known on 2030-01-01.

Implanted RFIDs and similar cybernetics will be mainstream (popular?) by 2030 ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2030-01-01.

We will discover alien biosignatures via advanced telescopes investigating alien atmospheres ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Leo on 2021-05-14; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2030, Elon Musk sells Twitter or allows it to declare bankruptcy ( 75% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-11-02; known on 2030-01-01.

A room temperature, ambient pressure superconductor is used in household appliances by 2030 ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-08-12; known on 2030-01-01.

J is no longer Christian. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-12-24; known on 2030-01-01.

[2020s scientific advances:] a universal flu vaccine available to the general public in at least one country ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2030-01-01.

[2020s scientific advances:] functional brain implants made of brain tissue (not electronic) ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2030-01-01.