Upcoming Predictions
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2020s to be warmer than the 2010s ( 83% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-18; known on 2031-01-01.
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reocities (or some other backup of geocities websites as comprehensive as reocities) to last to 2030 ( 51% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2031-01-01.
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Sirocco the kakapo to die before 2030 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2031-01-01.
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Phoenix, AZ population higher in 2030 than 2010 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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Minneapolis population higher in 2030 than 2010 ( 80% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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Seattle population to be higher in 2030 than 2010 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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San Francisco population to be higher in 2030 than 2010 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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Miami population to be higher in 2030 than 2010 ( 30% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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Harvard to make tuition free for all undergraduates (at least once) by 2030 ( 25% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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Bisphenol A to be classified as a IARC Group 2A/2B carcinogen by 2030 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Alzheimer's to be a curable illness by 2030 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Gorillas will go extinct in the wild by 2030 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Bonobos to go extinct in the wild by 2030 ( 30% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Kea (Nestor Notabilis) to go extinct in the wild by 2030 ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Kakapo will go extinct by 2030 ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Solar Energy to reach 25% of total world energy generation by 2030 ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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LSD to no longer be a Schedule I drug by 2030 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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By January 1, 2031, large-language models combined with automated proof checking systems like Lean and Coq will have contributed to proofs which have appeared in major math journals. ( 53% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-21; known on 2031-01-01.
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The Riemann Hypothesis will be proven before 2031 ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-20; known on 2031-01-01.
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There will be more Scarlet Macaws in 2030 than 2010 ( 20% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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There to be more kakapo in 2030 than 2010 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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There to be more orcas in 2030 than 2010 ( 10% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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A human has set foot on Mars ( 9% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Portland, OR to have higher population in 2030 than 2010 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030 ( 28% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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At least 10% of 18-year olds in the US will be unschooled by 2030 ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Rich Sutton: AI by 'roughly 2030' ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-10; known on 2031-01-01.
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United States institutes price controls on physicians before 2030 ( 30% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-06-14; known on 2031-01-01.
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Global warming: warming of 2 C in under 15 years. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2016-12-04; known on 2031-01-01.
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US obesity rate above 31.6% in 2030 ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-26; known on 2031-01-01.
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Climate change catastrophes cause more property damage over than 2020-2030 period than the purported $300bn USD (as reported by Time via Bloomberg, october 24, 2019) that would need to be invested to limit the worst of the effects. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kallman on 2020-01-02; known on 2031-01-01.
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Cuba to become the fastest growing world economy during the 2020s – Alex Lightman ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2031-01-01; judged unknown by InquilineKea on 2015-08-03.
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“by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system” ( 5% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-26; known on 2031-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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Cascadia megathrust earthquake (of magnitude 8+) to hit Seattle before 2030 ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2031-01-01.
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US will ally with Iran by 2030 – Alex Lightman ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2031-01-01.
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There will be a Second US civil war before 2031 ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2031-01-02.
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4% of my 2031 savings (including rental property value) will be greater than my 2031 expenses ( 65% confidence )
Created by trishume on 2016-04-07; known on 2031-01-16.
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At 30, I will have never been married. ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ejh3141 on 2020-02-20; known on 2031-02-04.
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I will be awesome in 20 years. ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by zwsaz1 on 2011-03-22; known on 2031-03-22.
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Either mean, median or mode truck drivers in either globally or US will make <= .027 BTC/hr or equivalent ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-26; known on 2031-04-26.
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Will there be at least another 3 episodes of the Hello Internet podcast? The Podcast had a rather irregular schedule, but there hasn't been another episode since the 28th February 2020. ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Morpheus on 2021-05-14; known on 2031-05-15.
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Created by krazemon on 2021-06-27; known on 2031-06-27.
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Created by krazemon on 2021-06-27; known on 2031-06-27.
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Created by krazemon on 2021-06-27; known on 2031-06-27.
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The appearance of complex numbers in quantum mechanics has something to do with information propagating backwards through time regarding constraints on which possible world(s) may obtain. This is related to getting bits of Chaitin's omega by observing app ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-24; known on 2031-09-24.
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S identifies as vegetarian by 15 ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by penten on 2016-10-31; known on 2031-10-31.
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The cure for cancer will be released to the world. ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by amandopando805 on 2021-11-06; known on 2031-11-06.
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I will successfully commit suicide in the next 10 years ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tuxedage on 2021-11-02; known on 2031-11-16.
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Caffeine will not be the primary stimulant (measured by daily users) ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2016-12-13; known on 2031-12-13.
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In 20 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA. ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2031-12-28.