Texas will secede by 31 December 2030. ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by najdorf on 2020-09-10; known on 2030-12-31.

California will secede by 31 December 2030. ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by najdorf on 2020-09-10; known on 2030-12-31.

There will be a Robotaxi available somewhere ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.

Someone sells a hoverboard by 2030 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.

Joe Rogan will host a presidential debate in the next ten years ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.

Some car company will sell SAE level 3 cars in the next 10 years. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.

Waymo still uses safety drivers in 10 years or closes down ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.

Javascript is still the dominant programming language in browsers by 2030 ( 78% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.

Google still has more than 66% market share for search by 2030 ( 73% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.

At least one war breaks out between countries due to (perceived) inaction / exacerbation of climate change before 2030 ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by predoindk on 2019-08-25; known on 2030-12-31.

Bharat will cut under 5 mortality rate to 25 deaths or fewer per 1000 live births in 15 years. Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-10; known on 2030-12-31.

jason scott still alive, running a javascript emulator ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-30; known on 2030-12-31.

github still exists ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-30; known on 2030-12-31.

Bharat will reduce emission intensity of the economy by 35% from its 2005 level by 2030 ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-02; known on 2030-12-31.

Nuclear power in Bharat will be 16 Gw by 2030. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-06; known on 2030-12-31.

Rate of violent crime in Pakistan will start dropping around 2020, correlated with lead exposure 20 years earlier ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jasticE on 2015-05-24; known on 2030-12-31.

250 GW of solar and 100 GW wind power by 2030. 40 % of Bharat's total power capacity(850 GW estimate) will come from renewable sources by 2030. Official Climate change pledge. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-06; known on 2030-12-31.

I am diagnosed with Parkinson's disease ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-13; known on 2030-12-31.

Globish(a minimalistic dialect of English used for international buisness) will be the de facto language of Europe by 2030 ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Keller on 2011-12-16; known on 2030-12-31.

Only 21 LRS-Bs will actually be built. The Pentagon is planning to procure 80-100 LRS-Bs to replace the Air Force’s B-1 and B-52 bombers. The Pentagon won't achieve even 25% of its planned target. ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-08; known on 2030-12-31.

A large quantum computer capable of breaking 163-bit Elliptic Curve Cryptography WON'T be built before 2030. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by niconiconi on 2021-02-26; known on 2031-01-01.

Emotion-reading wearable device commercially available (may need prescription or license) by 2031, or obtainable by publicly available plans (eg open-source project, Make magazine article, Instructable how-to, etc) ( 72% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-07-23; known on 2031-01-01.

China sequences 100 million people's genomes between 2026 and 2030 ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2031-01-01.

In 2030, global greenhouse gas emissions have been at most 50% of those in 2018. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2031-01-01.

BRIC will rank in the top 5 of military spenders by 2030. Zhongguo 2,Bharat 3,Rossiya 4,Brasil 5 This in USD at current prices. Data source is Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-10; known on 2031-01-01.

Bicycling mortality rate in US will be above 0.12 in 2030 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-24; known on 2031-01-01.

2020s to be warmer than the 2010s ( 83% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-18; known on 2031-01-01.

The European Union will start raising Union-level taxes (similar to US' federal taxation) by 2030 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-19; known on 2031-01-01.

The Riemann Hypothesis will be proven before 2031 ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-20; known on 2031-01-01.

Seattle population to be higher in 2030 than 2010 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.

There will be a magnitude 7+ earthquake in SF bay area between 2020 and 2030 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.

reocities (or some other backup of geocities websites as comprehensive as reocities) to last to 2030 ( 51% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2031-01-01.

Acemoglu wins a Nobel Prize by 2030 ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2031-01-01.

Phoenix, AZ population higher in 2030 than 2010 ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.

Sirocco the kakapo to die before 2030 ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2031-01-01.

Chen Ning Yang will die before Tsung Dao Lee ( 55% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.

A “New Keynesian” economist wins a Nobel Prize by 2030, e.g. Summers, Mankiw, Yellen, Woodford, etc. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2031-01-01.

Global warming: warming of 2 C in under 15 years. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by pkfalu92 on 2016-12-04; known on 2031-01-01.

Miami population to be higher in 2030 than 2010 ( 30% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.

“China will be 1/3rd desert before the 2030s and running out of water in many places” – Alex Lightman ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2031-01-01.

Mass casaulties (>3000) from bioterrorism by 2030 ( 51% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-30; known on 2031-01-01.

By January 1, 2031, known that there is no odd perfect number less than 10^2500 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-06-11; known on 2031-01-01.

[The next interstellar object will be discovered] before 2022 ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2031-01-01.

By 2030 consensus will be that low Earth orbit is undergoing Kessler syndrome. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2031-01-01.

San Francisco population to be higher in 2030 than 2010 ( 60% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.

[The next interstellar object will be discovered] before 2023 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2031-01-01.

By January 1, 2031, large-language models combined with automated proof checking systems like Lean and Coq will have contributed to proofs which have appeared in major math journals. ( 53% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-21; known on 2031-01-01.

The three “Deep South” states — Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul – to secede from Brazil sometime before 2030 ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2031-01-01.

Trump to be diagnosed with dementia sometime by 2030 ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-02; known on 2031-01-01.