Surgeries for 95% of the worlds medical problems will be drastically cost-reduced and available by 2028. ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2028-12-27.

Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 10 years. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2028-12-31.

Alexei Navalny becomes president or prime minister of Russia by the year 2028. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-07-26; known on 2028-12-31.

My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028 ( 8% confidence; 18 wagers; 14 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-12; known on 2028-12-31.

There will be a US military program to use AI in order to reduce exposure of US soldiers (pilots, analysts) to shocking Drone video footage so that their mental health is preserved. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by technophil on 2023-03-06; known on 2028-12-31.

Q.I. abandons its “one letter a season” concept. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-31; known on 2028-12-31.

Q.I. makes it up to “Z”. ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-31; known on 2028-12-31.

Half of more than 4,000 universities in the U.S. (that existed in 2013) to be in bankruptcy by 2028 – Clayton Christensen ( 65% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2029-01-01.

Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-21; known on 2029-01-01.

Kanye West will win the presidency in 2024 or 2028 ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by sty.silver on 2020-11-24; known on 2029-01-01.

The largest operating system/platform by marketshare will have been completely built from first principles by DeepMind/AGI, not building on existing OS before 2017 ( 44% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-03; known on 2029-01-01.

The largest operating system/platform by marketshare will be recognizable as being built off of Curtis Yarvin's ideas ( 5% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-03; known on 2029-01-01.

By 2028 there will be a biological catastrophe worse than COVID ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-13; known on 2029-01-01.

'The International Space Station is decommissioned' by 2029 ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2029-01-01.

World record for marathon <2 hours —François Péronnet ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-17; known on 2029-01-01.

Milestone 4 as discussed at http://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=2155 will be achieved by 2028. ( 65% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-20; known on 2029-01-01.

Noam Chomsky to become a centenarian ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2029-01-01.

By 2029 no computer – or “machine intelligence” – will have passed the Turing Test. ( 48% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2029-01-01.

Clay Christensen: In 15 Years From Now Half of US Universities May Be in Bankruptcy ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-14; known on 2029-01-01.

Open Philanthropy Project considers its December 2016 grant to Harvard University's Solar Geoengineering Research Program a success on 2027-01-01 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2029-01-01.

Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, “How to create a mind”) ( 25% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-02-08; known on 2029-01-02.

The Third World War (WW III) death toll will exceed 2.5 billion people, with another 2 billion to follow 15 years after the war has ended. ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-01-16.

I will still be a NEET (including retired early) on my 30th birthday ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known on 2029-03-01.

The cost of one TFLOPS will be more than $0.9375 by 2029. ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-02; known on 2029-03-02.

Donald Trump Jr. (Donald John Trump Jr.) (born December 31, 1977) has more than five children that he admits paternity of within ten (10) years ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2019-03-06; known on 2029-03-06.

Within 14 years new carbon structures will enable the ability of producing in lab environments pressures of at least 3.6 * 10^13 Pa and many pure carbon substances will have near zero cost due. ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-01; known on 2029-05-01.

Starcraft III or Warcraft IV to be released by May 18, 2029 ( 65% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-17; known on 2029-05-18.

Edward O. Wilson to become a centenarian ( 20% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2029-06-16.

the Earth will be hit by a less than a mile wide asteroid by 2029. Two will be seen and one will hit. Impact will be in the Pacific Ocean south of Guam. ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-07-29.

Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 10 years. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2019-09-15; known on 2029-09-15.

Professor Trevor Gaunt follows up or causes someone else to follow up with a proposal to widely effect positive policy change in this area [potential risks that geomagnetic storms] by 2027-10-01 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2029-10-01.

Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry. ( 77% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2029-10-14.

Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029. ( 7% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-01.

Sluggish cognitive tempo to be recognized as a disorder independent of ADHD in the DSM-6 ( 40% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2029-12-16.

Global CO² emissions peak at 15.3Gt in 2029 —Bloomberg New Energy Finance ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-06; known on 2029-12-25.

Computers will become truely self-aware by 2029. ( 31% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-27.

Bharat will pass the USA and EU in electricity production by 2029. 2nd largest oil importer in 2020. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-14; known on 2029-12-31.

I will be an inventor. ( 15% confidence )

Created by account on 2023-01-16; known on 2029-12-31.

By 2029, the “worldwide classroom” (WC) will be a standard in education in over 190 countries worldwide. ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-31.

C still widely in use in the 2020s ( 93% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-16; known on 2029-12-31.

The Third World War (WW III) will occur within 20 years from 2012. ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-31.

Brasil will reduce 43% of its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 from 2005 levels. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-17; known on 2029-12-31.

Poland will legalize gay marriage by 2030, see https://www.unz.com/akarlin/poland-will-legalize-gay-marriage-within-10-years/ ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by akarlin on 2020-06-17; known on 2030-01-01.

Before 2030, Shunji Iwai will direct another movie that I will rate 95/100 or higher ( 3% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-05; known on 2030-01-01.

Human drivers will be illegal on some Australian roads by 2030 ( 40% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2013-09-14; known on 2030-01-01.

Human drivers will be illegal on some USA roads by 2030 ( 44% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2013-09-14; known on 2030-01-01.

USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China. ( 41% confidence; 17 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-04; known on 2030-01-01.

There is a base on the surface of the Moon and there is always someone there. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.