Level 3 autonomous cars will be commercially available by 2030. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.

A male birth control pill will be commercially available in the US or EU by 2045. ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.

6th edition of Dungeons and Dragons to come out by January 1, 2030. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-06; known on 2030-01-01.

The U.S. will re-institute the draft during this decade. ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2020-01-05; known on 2030-01-01.

Norway will stop regular postal delivery to private houses of regular people by 2030 ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by silacoid on 2016-03-31; known on 2030-01-01.

Critical failure of the Three Gorges Dam by 2030 ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jamesrom on 2020-09-29; known on 2030-01-01.

We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion, of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2030. ( 78% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-22; known on 2030-01-01.

A room temperature, ambient pressure superconductor is used in household appliances by 2030 ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-08-12; known on 2030-01-01.

“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-05-19; known on 2030-01-01.

A substance will be found with a melting point of at least 7,520 F by 2030. ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-28; known on 2030-01-01.

Between 2019 and 2030 the price of bitcoin will rise above 15000$ per bitcoin ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-08; known on 2030-01-01.

Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030 ( 84% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.

People in the West will be largely “living in 15-minute prison camps, eating bugs, and living in pods.” ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-08; known on 2030-01-01.

Level 5 self-driving air vehicles will be available by 2030. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.

Artificial Superintelligence Emerges before 1st of January 2030 ( 52% confidence )

Created by rudyon on 2023-04-01; known on 2030-01-01.

SpaceX will land people on Mars prior to 2030 ( 45% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-28; known on 2030-01-01.

'The majority of new vehicles are plug-in electric, or hybrids' ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2030-01-01.

George Martin won't finish “A Song of Ice and Fire” series until 2030 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Stommelen on 2018-10-01; known on 2030-01-01.

I will lose my virginity before the Turing test is passed (operationalized as the $25,000 Loebner Prize) ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known on 2030-01-01.

Assuming such services are still in demand, by 2030, more than 99% of court reporters, captioners, and CAT and CART providers in the U.S. will be replaced by automatic machines. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by quintopia on 2015-05-11; known on 2030-01-01.

We will discover alien biosignatures via advanced telescopes investigating alien atmospheres ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Leo on 2021-05-14; known on 2030-01-01.

SpaceX will NOT land people on Mars by 2030. ( 55% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Lunchroom1685 on 2023-03-20; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2030, at least one mainly self-driving privately owned car will be legally driven on the Norwegian main roads. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by silacoid on 2015-07-10; known on 2030-01-01.

The Greek military will see major action, separate from peacekeeping initiatives outside of Europe, by 2030. ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Madplatypus on 2015-06-27; known on 2030-01-01.

Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ( 41% confidence; 20 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-13; known on 2030-01-01.

“Starship will never land in one piece on the moon or Mars” ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-03-12; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2030, Taiwan will be a part of China, without being a war. ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by danpop on 2016-02-11; known on 2030-01-01.

The US Govt ban on Nvidia selling datacenter GPUs in China is lifted by 2030 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-09-06; known on 2030-01-01.

The Sl4.org email archives will not be publicly available as text/HTML at sl4.org by 2030. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-11; known on 2030-01-01.

“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.” ( 35% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2030-01-01.

Övriga Europeiska länder kommer att införa visum för Sverige före år 2030 ( 95% confidence )

Created by d8e8fca2dc0f896fd7cb4cb0031ba249@mailinator.com on 2018-06-23; known on 2030-01-01.

“A nuclear explosive weapon will be used in war or terrorism.” ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2030-01-01.

At least one financial collapse will happen to the US in the 2020s ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2030-01-01.

In no less than ten years, there will be a new “dotcom bubble” Uber either will change drastically their business model or fail in this timeline. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Athosvcc on 2020-07-10; known on 2030-01-01.

The rest of the European countries will introduce visa för Sweden by 2030 ( 95% confidence )

Created by d8e8fca2dc0f896fd7cb4cb0031ba249@mailinator.com on 2018-06-23; known on 2030-01-01.

Covid vaccines will be recognized as causing ongoing health issues of at least 3 months duration in from 1 in 500 and 1 in 5000 vaccinated individuals ( 22% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by jasticE on 2021-12-26; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2030, Elon Musk sells Twitter or allows it to declare bankruptcy ( 75% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-11-02; known on 2030-01-01.

J is no longer Christian. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-12-24; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2030 genome sequencing would be offered as a service in local clinics/hospitals for an insignificant fee or for free in most (50%+) of the countries that today (2014) constitute together the Schengen Area, EU, Balkans, North America and Japan. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Neznans on 2014-05-05; known on 2030-01-01.

[2020s scientific advances:] finding the axion ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2030-01-01.

[2020s scientific advances:] a small, rocky exoplanet with water vapor ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2030-01-01.

[2020s scientific advances:] functional brain implants made of brain tissue (not electronic) ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2030-01-01.

[2020s scientific advances:] a universal flu vaccine available to the general public in at least one country ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2030-01-01.

Construction will start on replacements for the North River Tunnels by 2030 ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-03; known on 2030-01-01.

Bryan Caplan will win his bet on climate statistics with Yoram Bauman. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-12; known on 2030-01-01.

Google will be the first company with a market cap of $1 trillion. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-10-26; known on 2030-01-01.

A large-scale persistant Alternate Reality game is created which sets a “cyberspace grafitti” sort of layer on top of reality; sells poorly, but trudges on with a cult following. ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by kallman on 2010-11-22; known on 2030-01-01.

At least 2 billion biological humans will be alive on Earth at the beginning of 2030. ( 94% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2030-01-01.

humans on mars by 2030 ( 28% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by htaussig on 2021-03-20; known on 2030-01-01.