China >=$24.6 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 —HSBC ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.

US >=$22.3 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 —HSBC ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.

India >=$8.2 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 —HSBC ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.

Chinese & Indian per capita in 2050 will be 8x greater (in constant 2000 dollars) than 2011 —HSBC ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.

American per-capita GDP 3x greater than Chinese per-capita GDP in 2050 —HSBC ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.

Surface of the earth still habitable for human beings by 2050 (whether or not human beings are, in fact, on the surface) ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20; known on 2050-01-01.

Turkish GDP > Russian in 2050 —HSBC ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.

Prime Minister Patty Hajdu ( 4% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-11; known on 2050-01-01.

Egypt, Malaysia and Indonesia in top 20 largest world economies —HSBC ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.

Brazil only 7th largest world economy or smaller in 2050 —HSBC ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.

AGI is developed by 2050 (on Earth) ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-18; known on 2050-01-01.

“The vast majority of aeroplanes are now hydrogen powered, or use some combination of hydrogen and other renewable energy.” ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2050-01-01.

An (other) astronomical object with a diameter bigger than Mercury will be discover in the Solar System before 2050. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-04-01; known on 2050-01-01.

Presence of life in the past (or present) that doesn't originate from Earth will be discovered in the solar system before 2050. ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-04-04; known on 2050-01-01.

The public will either have at least six months advance notice prior to the use of the first quantum computer for bitcoin mining (w/ SHA256), or such a quantum computer will not exist prior to 2050. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by lavalamp on 2014-04-10; known on 2050-01-01.

A peace treaty ends the arab-isreali conflict before 2050 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-08; known on 2050-01-01.

“By 2050, at least two pan-regional currencies, modeled on the Euro, will be used in the world.” ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.

“By 2050 no synthetic computer nor machine intelligence will have become truly self-aware (ie. will become conscious).” ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.

“The Bet: By 2050, we will receive intelligent signals from outside our solar system.” ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.

“By 2050 Baidu.com will surpass Google.com and become world's number 1 search engine.” —Yan Bashkin ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-30; known on 2050-01-01.

“Somewhere before 2050 abortion on request and/or for socio-economic factors will be illegal worldwide.” ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.

“By 2050, less than 20% of the United States will attend church on a regular basis (at least 3 times a month)” —Alex M ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-19; known on 2050-01-01.

A room temperature, ambient pressure superconductor is used in household appliances by 2050 ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-08-12; known on 2050-01-01.

The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican. ( 15% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.

Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ( 47% confidence; 22 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-09; known on 2050-01-01.

A heat engine which beats the Carnot efficiency will be developed before 2050 ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-07; known on 2050-01-01.

Time travel developed before 2050 ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.

Paraplegia due to spinal cord injury cured in greater than 90% of cases before 2050 ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-24; known on 2050-01-01.

Faster-than-light travel developed before 2050 ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.

Faster-than-light communication developed before 2050 ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.

Invisibility cloak capable of concealing human sized objects developed before 2050 ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-24; known on 2050-01-01.

Artificial ears which are comparable to or superior than natural ears will be developed by 2050 ( 60% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-25; known on 2050-01-01.

Mouse, rat, rabbit, or other small mammal successfully revived from cryopreservation before 2050 ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-17; known on 2050-01-01.

Armed conflict in space before 2050 ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-16; known on 2050-01-01.

US will abandon the electoral college at any time before 2050 ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2016-10-02; known on 2050-01-01.

The Boy Scouts will admit openly atheist scouts before 2050 ( 79% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-07-28; known on 2050-01-01.

Teleportation to be developed before 2050 ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-20; known on 2050-01-01.

No functional whole brain emulation of a human will exist on Earth before 2050. ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2050-01-01.

By 2050 travelling by plane would be a luxury (less than 1 % of the world population) (because of resource depletion, or others) . ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Osuniev on 2013-09-05; known on 2050-01-01.

By 1 January 2050, the average house price in Australia will be at least AUD $1 million dollars. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2050-01-02.

The world will not end before 2050 ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Lyaer on 2012-08-18; known on 2050-01-02.

Artificial eyes which allow the user to score 20/20 or better on a visual acuity test will be developed by 2050 ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-25; known on 2050-01-02.

Infinitely many primes with gap <= 16, proven by 2050 ( 57% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-20; known on 2050-01-16.

A zombie apocalypse could happen. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Snowshi on 2014-01-20; known on 2050-01-16.

Insects can feel pain and suffer ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by xdxdxd on 2019-02-02; known on 2050-03-01.

White people are going to get their form of a Holocaust, Slavery, etc. ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by SINCITYxFoXx on 2011-03-30; known on 2050-03-30.

The Chinese economy will exceed the American economy before 2050 ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-31; known on 2050-03-31.

No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo ( 45% confidence; 13 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-22; known on 2050-05-29.

By 2050 the majority of music will be “generated” and not recorded. This will include vocals. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by msevrens on 2014-10-28; known on 2050-10-28.