“In other words, I predict that the actual warming of the lower troposphere from 1990 to 2100, as measured by satellites, will be less than 1.94 degrees Celsius.”

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2101-12-31

• gwern estimated 50% on 2010-07-30
• gwern said “http://www.longbets.org/180” on 2010-07-30
• gwern changed their prediction from “In other words, I predict that the actual warming of the lower troposphere from 1990 to 2100, as measured by satellites, will be less than 1.94 degrees Celsius.” on 2010-07-30
• themusicgod1 estimated 8% on 2016-10-06
• pranomostro estimated 40% on 2019-01-14
• Baeboo estimated 40% on 2019-01-15