Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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Within 25 years, a state with UN representation will exist whose territory incorporates portions of both Iran and Syria. ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-11-16; known on 2040-01-01.
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By November 30, the snow will fall at St. Petersburg and will stay until at least February 1st. ( 7% confidence )
Created by AvImd on 2015-11-16; known on 2016-02-07; judged wrong by AvImd on 2016-02-07.
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Make 4. ( 60% confidence )
Created by imuli on 2015-11-16; known on 2015-11-16; judged right by imuli on 2015-11-16.
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It will take me 45 minutes or less to walk to Banana Republic, purchase a pair of pants, and walk back to the apartment. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Lissy on 2015-11-15; known on 2015-11-16; judged right by Lissy on 2015-11-16.
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Humanity will decrease deaths per person-year due to aging to 0.009% before reducing violent deaths to 0.0003%. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by imuli on 2015-11-15; known on 2100-01-01.
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We have a working dishwasher after the scheduled engineer visit ( 35% confidence )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-15; known on 2015-11-17; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-11-17.
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I will recover by Tuesday. This flu-like has lasted five days so far. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-11-15; known on 2015-11-17; judged right by memoriesofbutter on 2015-12-24.
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Adams will win the London Chess Classic ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-15; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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A certificate of impact has been issued at some point before today. ( 60% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-11-15; known on 2015-11-15; judged right by EliTyre on 2020-08-10.
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The VIX index will go above 23 by December 4th. ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-11-14; known on 2015-12-05; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-12-05.
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The VIX index will go above 22 by December 4th. ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-11-14; known on 2015-12-05; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-12-05.
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I think I will get all As or A-s on my courses this semester. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Majikkani_Hand on 2015-11-14; known on 2015-12-20.
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I think I will get all As on my courses this semester ( 90% confidence )
Created by Majikkani_Hand on 2015-11-14; known on 2015-12-20.
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The Secular Solstice event is able to raise $6125 by Nov. 18th. ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-11-13; known on 2015-11-19; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-11-19.
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Sam's comment will reach 1000 karma. ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-11-13; known on 2015-12-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2015-11-17.
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JT will defriend me on Facebook by January 1, 2016 ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-12; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-10.
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At least one country leaves the Eurozone before 2018 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by qznc on 2015-11-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Juno spacecraft sends images from Jupiter ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2015-11-12; known on 2016-07-04; judged right by jessriedel on 2016-07-05.
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@katyperry will have the most Twitter followers at the end of 2015 ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2015-11-12; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Volkswagen shares will be traded above 140€ in November ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2015-12-01.
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In 2016 Tesla Motors will sell a <$30,000 electric car. ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by qznc on 2015-11-12; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2017-01-03.
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Grischuk will win the London Chess Classic ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Caruana will win the London Chess Classic ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Vachier-Lagrave will win the London Chess Classic ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Anand will win the London Chess Classic ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Giri will win the London Chess Classic ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Carlsen will win the London Chess Classic ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged right by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Aronian will win the London Chess Classic ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Nakamura will win the London Chess Classic ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Topalov will win the London Chess Classic ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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US economy will be in recession by 2017. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-12; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-12-25.
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Life will win the final match of WCS Global 2015. (Note: Outcome has happened, but I haven't seen it yet.) ( 60% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-11-13; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2015-11-13.
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I will receieve “Reasons and Persons” and “On What Matters” by Derek Parfit as Christmas gifts this year. ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-26; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-26.
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I will do at least 15 pomodoro-equivalents today. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-11-13; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-11-13.
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I will feel noticeably less depressed after running 1.5 miles and doing some light curls. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-11-12; judged right by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-12.
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Winter Steam sale will have a discount of at least 20% on Fallout 4. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by timujin on 2015-11-11; known on 2016-02-03; judged wrong by timujin on 2016-01-07.
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I predict that the price of oil will not change by more than 20% for a 2 week time period after the US presidency is announced in 2016. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-11; known on 2017-01-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-02-26.
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I bet that Pete will end up going to Burning Man ( 50% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-11; known on 2016-09-16; judged wrong by Idrinkitup on 2016-09-20.
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I can sell my car within 2 weeks for $3k ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Idrinkitup on 2016-01-03.
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I think that the most common biking accident is a car nudging a rider while passing ( 60% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-11; known on 2015-11-11; judged wrong by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-11.
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The parcel at the delivery office is my contact lenses ( 95% confidence )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-11; known on 2015-11-11; judged right by Josh Holland on 2015-11-11.
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Eliot will be forced to stop using “purple people” as an inoffensive placemarker for <some group of people> because it will start to seem offensive and people will <know> who is being referred to. See euphemistic treadmill. Within 5 years ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2015-11-11; known on 2020-11-11; judged right by waveman on 2021-01-05.
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My biopsy result with come back negative ie good ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2015-11-11; known on 2015-11-21; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-11-21.
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I will run at least twice this calendar week ( 80% confidence )
Created by taryneast on 2015-11-11; known on 2015-11-15; judged right by taryneast on 2015-11-23.
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Brexit: UK will vote to leave the EU in the referendum. ( 39% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-11; known on 2017-11-25; judged right by mortehu on 2016-06-25.
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It will take me 30 minutes to fix my PE application ( 60% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-11; known on 2015-11-11; judged right by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-11.
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I bet after 6 months of travelling, I will say I do not regret getting my new backpack, Kelty RedWing ( 80% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-10; known on 2016-09-10; judged right by Idrinkitup on 2016-09-20.
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Coin landing on eads ( 50% confidence )
Created by philvier on 2015-11-10; known on 2015-11-10.
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The gym will be full enough to require waiting for a bench. ( 15% confidence )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-11-09; known on 2015-11-09; judged wrong by memoriesofbutter on 2015-11-09.
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Max Steinberg will place in the top 3 at the 2015 World Series Of Poker (WSOP) Main Event. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Lissy on 2015-11-09; known on 2015-11-10; judged wrong by Lissy on 2015-11-10.
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I will move house again in the next year ( 35% confidence )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-09; known on 2016-11-09; judged right by Josh Holland on 2017-01-01.
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That in 11 hours it will be 14:20 EST. ( 100% confidence )
Created by pjg5172 on 2015-11-09; known on 2015-11-09.
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The two of us will send an email to that philosophy professor, like we said we would last Spring. ( 30% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2015-11-09; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2016-02-01.
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I think I will get an A in geosci ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by bruh on 2015-11-09; known on 2015-12-16.
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Nicholas Christakis to cease to be Master of Silliman College by January 1, 2016 ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-09; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-01-06.
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In the next two weeks something horrible will happen to me (I'll trip on a busy intersection, someone will publicly insult me, I'll be fired, etc) AND I will be unable to cope with it (ie I'll just have a compete mental break down and be unable to functio ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-07; known on 2015-11-21; judged wrong by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-21.
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The Fed won't raise the rate in 2015 ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jdmeagher on 2015-11-07; known on 2016-01-07; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04.
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Greg will propose to Yelena ( 90% confidence )
Created by jdmeagher on 2015-11-07; known on 2017-11-07.
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Nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan in the next 10 years ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-06; known on 2025-11-07.
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In five years, 80% of the smartphones worldwide will come from Chinese companies or Chinese acquired companies. ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by danpop on 2015-11-06; known on 2020-11-06; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
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According to a study by researchers at Oxford University, it's 90% likely that my current job as an HR administrative worker will be automated in 20 years. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Lissy on 2015-11-06; known on 2035-11-06.
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Finnish PM Sipilä will not propose the President of Republic to dissolve the current Sipilä Government in Fri 2015-11-06 Helsinki time. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2015-11-06; known on 2015-11-07; judged right by kuudes on 2015-11-06.
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If N is an odd perfect number, under assumption that 3 does not divide N, improvement of linear term on Theorem 1 of Ochem and Rao by 2018 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-04.
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I will own Mini Metro at noon on 1/1/2016. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-01-01.
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English Wikipedia will have greater than or equal to 6,000,000 articles by the end date of this prediction ( 22% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2018-11-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2018-11-01.
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The list of top charities that GiveWell will release next will include a charity that is not currently listed. ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-11-20.
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Out of the universities that I send out PhD applications to, I will be accepted by at least half. ( 63% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2016-05-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-03-03.
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David Leyonhjelm will not be a member of the Parliamentary Committee on Law Enforcement on March 1, 2016. ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2016-03-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-03-01.
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My money will have gone through when I check tonight ( 20% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-11-04; known on 2015-11-04; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-11-15.
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I think that I will be working at the VA by the end of next month ( 60% confidence )
Created by DarthSophius on 2015-11-04; known on 2016-01-01.
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That Facebook post will concern the Kickstarter. ( 90% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2015-11-04; known on 2015-11-04; judged right by aarongertler on 2015-11-04.
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By the end of 2020, the obesity rate among adults 20 years or older in the United States will drop from 34.9% in 2012 to 30%… +/- .9 percent. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Lissy on 2015-11-04; known on 2020-12-31.
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Bharat will grow at least 8-8.5% in real GDP terms from 1 April 2015 to 31 March 2016(FY16). —NITI Aayog vice chairman Arvind Panagariya ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-03; known on 2016-10-20.
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Scott Adams – I predict Trump gets at least 65% of the votes in the general election. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by halfwit on 2015-11-03; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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My Employment & Labor Law professor will allow me to take the quiz I missed last night due to my “nap attempt.” ( 50% confidence )
Created by Lissy on 2015-11-03; known on 2015-11-04; judged right by Lissy on 2015-11-04.
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Created by Lissy on 2015-11-03; known on 2015-12-02; judged wrong by Lissy on 2015-12-17.
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My boss will approve my Thanksgiving vacation request to Puerto Rico. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Lissy on 2015-11-02; known on 2015-11-03; judged right by Lissy on 2015-11-03.
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I will win the KH Handbook Review contract at the exact price I proposed. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Lissy on 2015-11-02; known on 2015-11-12; judged wrong by Lissy on 2015-11-14.
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Bharat will eliminate absolute poverty(WB:1.90 USD definition) by 2024 ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-02; known 21 days ago.
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Effective Altruism Canberra will have 15 prospective members, allowing them to affiliate with the Australian National University Students Association, by the end of this year. ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by danielfilan on 2016-01-01.
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In the CPR training this wednesday I will feel uncomfortably awkward around my coworkers and I'll ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-02; known on 2015-11-05; judged wrong by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-05.
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I will be ILR Level 2 proficient in Spanish after my time in Spain. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-01; known on 2017-01-15; judged wrong by Idrinkitup on 2017-02-27.
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When I finish travelling the world and come home, I will be glad I did and feel satisfied and proud of myself. I will feel like I am wiser. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-01; known on 2017-08-01; judged right by Idrinkitup on 2018-01-19.
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Carlton, my boss, will call me in his office and give me a lecture about how I haven't registered for IWCF well control school. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-01; known on 2015-11-15; judged wrong by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-15.
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I will go to Burning Man this year. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-01; known on 2016-09-10; judged wrong by Idrinkitup on 2016-09-06.
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I bet that when I get done with taking the PE, traveling around the world for ~14 months, I'll get a job in web development in Raleigh and invest in rental properties and hang out with Jay. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-01; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by Idrinkitup on 2018-02-23.
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Once I quit my job, move to Spain, begin learning programming, my Penn State Authentic happiness score will be above 3.7. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-01; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by Idrinkitup on 2017-02-27.
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At least 3 more people in the US will get the bubonic plague by year-end 2016. ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-11-01; known on 2017-01-02; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2015-12-26.
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ATK will successfully launch by Feb 1, 2016 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-01; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-01.
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ATK will successfully launch by December 4th. ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-01; known on 2015-12-05; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-05.
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Missouri will be a swing state in 2016 (within 1% of the vote margin of the median Electoral College vote). ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-10-31; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Bernie Sanders will win the 2016 Presidential election. ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gsastry on 2015-10-31; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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I will run into another Leeloo on Halloween. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-29; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-11-01.
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I will get full marks in today's finance programming quiz. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-11-15; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-11-05.
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I will complete at least 1 pomodoro after eating out with friends and before midnight. ( 20% confidence )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-29; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-10-29.
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Zhongguo will be a high income country by 2022 ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-28; known on 2022-12-12; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-12-18.
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There are at least 10 official HTTP codes in the 300s. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged wrong by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.
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At least 3 of the 6 people here would take the gum in the hypothetical situation about being late for a job interview when your breath smells bad and you stop at a convenience store where the clerk is missing. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged wrong by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.
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More than one person will take the gum ( 25% confidence )
Created by Ray on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by Ray on 2015-10-28.
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A jellyfish has zero neurons. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged wrong by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.