Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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No terrorist attack in the in the US will kill > 100 people in 2016 ( 88% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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No terrorist attack in the in any First World country (Western Europe, US, Japan, Australia) will kill > 100 people in 2017 ( 60% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2017-01-02.
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Jake's jitter error is a bug in his program. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-01-29; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2016-01-28.
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Democrats take the Senate in 2016. ( 48% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by lalaithion on 2016-12-01.
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Ben Carson will be the next President-elect ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Somewhere in Air France IT, there will be a project or a study using Golang within 6 month after the Brown Bag Lunch of March 2016 by Anaethelion ( 75% confidence )
Created by Jean on 2016-01-27; known on 2016-08-27.
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There will be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522 ( 95% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2016-01-27; known on 2522-06-25.
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Rubio mops up on Super Tuesday, taking more than 60% of the primaries. ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-27; known on 2016-03-03; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-03.
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The last two candidates vying for GOP nomination will be Cruz and Rubio. ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-27; known on 2016-07-31; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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Trump sweeps first four primaries. ( 20% confidence )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-27; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-02.
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Brokered convention. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-27; known on 2016-07-18; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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2016 Election is Clinton vs Rubio. ( 12% confidence; 22 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-27; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-10-01.
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Democrats win House of Representatives in 2016. ( 9% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-26; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03.
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2016 SpaceX successfully launches a reused rocket: ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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2016 North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. ( 88% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers 2016 ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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I'll finish the third data munging problem set this evening ( 70% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-01-25; known on 2016-01-26; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-01-26.
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It will not snow in Aderet this week ( 97% confidence )
Created by TheBlackFox on 2016-01-24; known on 2016-01-30; judged right by TheBlackFox on 2016-02-03.
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Summer Olympics in Brazil happen in 2016 ( 95% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-24; known on 2016-09-30; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-06.
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Ubuntu 16.04 (or 16.03-5 if need be) released, with gcc 5, won't immediately be unusable colossal failure ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-24; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-04-21.
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Unsongbook will have at least 50 but not more than 500 chapters and interludes when it is finished or has been abandoned for at least 1 year. ( 79% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-24; known on 2026-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-05-18.
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Unsongbook will have at least 100 but not more than 200 chapters and interludes when it is finished or has been abandoned for at least 1 year. ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-24; known on 2026-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-05-18.
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Michael Bloomberg will be the next President-elect ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-24; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Michael Bloomberg will announce that he is entering the 2016 Presidential race as an independent candidate ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-24; known on 2016-03-14; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-03-08.
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Kelsey is Snape ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-01-22; known on 2016-01-23; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2016-01-22.
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no errors in this upload ( 72% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-21; known on 2016-01-22; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-21.
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C will work out how to solve a Rubik's cube this year. ( 1% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-01-21; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-01-22.
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C will learn how to solve a Rubik's cube this year. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-01-21; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Global bear market(90% of stock indices will fall by 20% from 2015 peak) ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-21; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-11.
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Path cc ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Gstarr310 on 2016-01-21; known on 2016-01-21.
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The S&P 500 will go below 1814 by February 1, 2016 ( 33% confidence; 22 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-21; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.
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I will have a higher average score in math modules than essay modules this year ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2016-01-20; known on 2016-12-07; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-07-10.
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Cultured meat will outsell traditional meat in the US by 2050 ( 29% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2016-01-20; known on 2050-01-01.
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Luc Ferrandez est élu chef du parti Projet Montréal ( 75% confidence )
Created by elecnix on 2016-01-20; known on 2016-01-27; judged wrong by elecnix on 2016-01-27.
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Sam gets me sick. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-20; known on 2016-01-24; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-24.
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Hillary will win the democratic nomination. ( 79% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NobodySpecial on 2016-01-20; known on 2016-07-28; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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US real GDP growth rate for 2018 will be under 2.0% ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-20; known on 2018-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-27.
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US real GDP growth rate for 2017 will be under 2.2% ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-20; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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USA real GDP growth rate for 2016 will be under 2.4% ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-20; known on 2016-12-25; judged right by Afforess on 2017-08-07.
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The S&P 500 will go below 1867 on Jan 20th 2016 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-20; known on 2016-01-21; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-20.
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Jonathan Blow's The Witness will be released to the general public for at least one platform in January 2016 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-19; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-26.
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Donald Trump's pick for VP will be Martha McSally. (No nomination needed; withdrawn if Trump does not pick.) ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-18; known on 2016-07-18; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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I will be out of my sling in four weeks. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-18; known on 2016-02-21; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-21.
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I will be out of my sling in 5 weeks. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-18; known on 2016-02-28; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-21.
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I will be out of my sling in 6 weeks. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-18; known on 2016-03-05; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-21.
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All 3 of us will pass TOIBAS exam ( 80% confidence )
Created by VoidChronos on 2016-01-18; known on 2016-01-19; judged right by VoidChronos on 2016-01-19.
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Prediction: Soon after the bitcoin-classic fork succeeds, layoffs will start at BlockStream. ( 4% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-17; known on 2020-01-01.
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Micron's stock will go below 10.50 before February 1, 2016 ( 71% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-17; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-20.
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Baidu's stock price will go below 160 before February 1, 2016 ( 53% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-17; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-30.
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Chinese economy will be larger than the US in the future. After that, India is the next best candidate that could surpass US economy in the next 25 years. After that China and India could be competing for number one — Masoyoshi Son, Softbank ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-17; known on 2040-06-24.
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US recession in 2016. ( 48% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-17; known on 2017-01-18; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-18.
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Grid search will be done running when I get home. ( 60% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-17; known on 2016-01-17; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-18.
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Price of oil above $60 by the end of this year. http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=price+of+oil ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-02.
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Price of oil above $20 by the end of this year. http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=price+of+oil ( 87% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2017-01-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-02.
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I get A*A*A in mocks. ( 20% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-03-16.
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I get 3 A*'s in mocks. ( 50% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-03-16.
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Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years. ( 10% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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North Korean government collapses in the next 5 years. ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Major (>100 death toll) terrorist attack in the US this year. ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2017-01-16.
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Major (>100 death toll) terrorist attack in the UK this year. ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2017-01-16.
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Major (>100 death toll) terrorist attack in Europe (all present and past EEA members) this year. ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-02.
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JP and MG. ( 50% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2016-09-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-09-16.
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I will get into Cambridge for CompSci without Maths ( 10% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2016-09-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-09-16.
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I will get into Cambridge ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2016-09-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2016-09-16.
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I will get 1, 2 in STEP ( 30% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2016-09-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2016-09-16.
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I will get 1, 1 in STEP ( 50% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2016-09-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-09-16.
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I will get above 1, 1 in STEP ( 10% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2016-09-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-09-16.
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I will get A*A*A at A2 ( 20% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2016-09-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-09-16.
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I will get A*A*A* at A2 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2016-09-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2016-09-16.
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Amazon stock price will reach $700 at some point in 2016. ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by roshni on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by roshni on 2016-05-11.
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Marco Rubio will win the 2016 Republican Primary in New Hampshire ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-10; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-02-10.
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Ted Cruz will win the 2016 Republican Primary in New Hampshire. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-10; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-02-10.
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Donald Trump will win the 2016 Republican Primary in New Hampshire. ( 58% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-10.
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Ted Cruz will win the 2016 Republican Caucus in Iowa ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-02; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-02.
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Donald Trump will win the 2016 Republican Caucus in Iowa ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-02.
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Marco Rubio will win the 2016 Republican Caucus in Iowa. ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-02; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2016-02-02.
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Hillary Clinton's average share in Democratic presidential primary polling shall be at least 55.0%, rounded to the first decimal, at 11:59:59 p.m. (ET) on January 31, 2016, according to RealClearPolitics.com ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-02-01.
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Any EU member state declares war against other EU member state during this prediction. (wars from archives don't count, has to be new declaration of war) ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against any EU member state ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against any member of Nordic Council ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against Iceland ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against Denmark ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against Norway ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against Finland ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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At 6 PM Sanders will announce an endorsement from Biden. ( 2% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by VonFoerster on 2016-01-14; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2016-08-04.
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All three of us will get a passing grade on tomorrow's exam ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by timujin on 2016-01-14; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by timujin on 2016-01-16.
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I will not talk on freenode until 2016-01-15 12:00 UTC ( 99% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-14; known on 2016-01-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-15.
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USA real GDP growth rate for 2015 will be 2.30%. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-14; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-04-26.
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There will be at least one active probe in Martian orbit or on Mars at least until either January 1, 2050 or until humans visit Mars. ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-14; known on 2050-01-01.
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spacex falcon heavy rocket launch carrying lightsail-1 or 2 or 3 to space will be successful in 2016 ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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Brahmos (I) missile will have a successful launch from aircraft in 2016 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-13; known on 2017-01-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-08.
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I am still using Complice on December 1 2016. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-13; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-12-02.
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J agrees to call. ( 55% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-13; known on 2016-01-16; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-21.
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J responds before Friday. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-13; known on 2016-01-16; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-18.
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China will fall into disorder and civil war by the end of 2017 ( 6% confidence; 21 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by chinawillfall on 2016-01-13; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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The Chinese economy will completely collapse by 2017. ( 7% confidence; 20 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by chinawillfall on 2016-01-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Apple’s stock will be at least $138.52 according to 32 analysts. ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-13; known on 2016-12-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-29.
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Why Apple Will Hit $1,650 by the End of 2015 and earn $610 billion revenue —Eric Jackson, Forbes ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-13; known on 2016-01-14; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-13.
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OPEC basket price on a monthly basis will bottom out at $25 for 2016. ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-12; known on 2016-12-29.