Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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I will be stranded in Sudbury, when the snow causes a greater than three hour delay in my travels East. ( 33% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2015-12-25; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-16.
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Next President of the US will have to deal with(militarily or otherwise) Dalwa al Islamyya. It will still exist and be problematic by the time the next president assumes office. ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2017-02-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-28.
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Dalwa al Islamyya fails to detonate a nuclear weapon (incl dirty bomb with 1+ fatality) in the continental US in 2016 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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Maker culture grew in 2015, as measured by maker faire audience ( http://makerfaire.com/ / http://makerfaire.com/bay-area-2015/sponsors/ ) ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-27.
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US citizen killed by US government in drone strike on continental US soil before 2023 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2024-01-01.
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1.8%+ urban development growth in 2015 ( http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.URB.GROW/countries?display=graph ) ( 97% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2016-09-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-16.
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week of dec 22, the Central Bank of Turkey will meet, and do central-banky things. ( 93% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2016-01-06; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-25.
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At least 12 billion paid 160 trillion free mobile app downloads in 2015 on all platforms combined. ( 16% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-11.
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My paper will be accepted for the Munich conference ( 40% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-12-11; known on 2016-01-16; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-20.
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In all his bank accounts combined, my friend Keyan will have $1,000,000 in total by the time he turns 30. ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Lissy on 2015-12-11; known on 2018-03-30.
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more people globally will have cellphones than household electricity in 2015 ( 69% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2017-01-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-14.
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Global thermonuclear war, worldwide by Jan 1, 2016 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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War between india & pakistan 2015 ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-13.
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In the beginning of 2016, it will be more difficult for a university to not provide civil servants/qualified workers than the beginning of 2015 in canada. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2016-07-01.
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Higher tuition in 2015 causes stress in students in canada ( 99% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2016-08-01.
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Higher pressure on unions due to higher pressure on professors in canada (in 2015.) ( 68% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2017-01-08.
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increased tuition in canada causes increased stress on professors (contributing cause) (2015) ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2017-01-02.
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tuition higher on jan 1 2016 than jan 1 2015 in canada ( 99% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-31.
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US Federal Reserve stuck near the 0 bound (say, <1.5% with no willingness to increase it further in the immediate future) by Jan 1, 2016 (see http://www.global-rates.com/interest-rates/central-banks/central-bank-america/fed-interest-rate.aspx ) ( 99% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-31.
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War between North and South Korea breaks out by Jan 1, 2016 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-31.
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I will still have a bivalvegan, or mostly bivalvegan (defined as buying meat/dairy products, if at all, perhaps once/twice a month) diet in three years time. ( 75% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-12-10; known on 2018-12-31.
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By 2030, EU will have 7% of the estimated 300 million 25-34 yr old graduates ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-10; known on 2030-12-25.
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By 2030, USA will have 8% of the estimated 300 million 25-34 yr old graduates ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-10; known on 2030-12-25.
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By 2030, Bharat will have 23% of the estimated 300 million 25-34 yr old graduates. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-10; known on 2030-12-25.
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By 2030, Zhongguo will have 27% of the estimated 300 million 25-34 yr old graduates ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-10; known on 2030-12-11.
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Europe and the United States will be lagging well behind with 8% and 4% of STEM graduates by 2030 respectively —OECD ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-10; known on 2030-12-25.
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Bharat and Zhongguo will account for more than 60% of the OECD and G20 STEM graduates. ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-10; known on 2030-12-25.
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BRIICS countries will produce 75% global STEM graduates by 2030. ( 86% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-10; known on 2030-12-25.
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Bharat will be ranked 7th in 2021, up from 13th in 2014 in the Nature Index.(Qualitative Science ranking) ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-10; known on 2021-12-25.
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Craig S. Wright will not (in the next year) demonstrate possession of the key with fingerprint DE4E FCA3 E1AB 9E41 CE96 CECB 18C0 9E86 5EC9 48A1, nor of any other key or bitcoin convincingly belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto. ( 82% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-12-09; known on 2016-12-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-09.
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Great Green Wall, a land restoration programme in the African Sahel over the next 10 years. Aims to restore more than 50 million hectares of land. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-09; known on 2025-12-12.
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Brasil’s research papers in Web of Science increased in 2003 to 2012 from 1.7% to 2.7%. It's world share will be at least 3.7% by 2021. ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-09; known on 2021-12-16.
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Bharat had 21,269 Web of science papers in 2003 to 45,639 in 2012.Bharat's world share will increase from 3.6% to a lower bound of 4.7%, 66,700 science papers by 2021. ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-09; known on 2021-12-10.
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The New York times will report it confirmed that Craig Wright is Satoshi Nakamoto by 2016-12-31 ( 18% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by solipsist on 2015-12-09; known on 2016-12-31; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-30.
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Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-09; known on 2021-12-25.
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World share in science papers for the United States fell from 33% in 2003 to 27.8% in 2012.By 2021 it will be under 22.6%. — Web of Science, Thomson Reuters ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-09; known on 2021-12-10.
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EU's world share in science papers declined from 38.5% in 2003 to 35.5% in 2012, and by 2021 will be under 32.5%. — Web of Science, Thomson Reuters ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-09; known on 2021-12-25.
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WIMPs will be discovered by beginning of 2020. ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2015-12-08; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-20.
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The Federal Reserve will not hike the interest rate in 2015. ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-12-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-12-16.
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TWOW will be published before GOT season 6 airs. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-12-07; known on 2016-05-16; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2016-05-16.
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Rural electrification: 18,452 villages are to be provided electricity in Bharat under the Deen Dayal Upadhyay Gramin Jyoti Yojana by May 1, 2018. ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-07; known on 2018-05-02.
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Finland will be the first nation to introduce nationwide basic income by December 2017. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-07; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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Bill Gates “Digital transactions will rise to 50% of India's GDP in the next 2-3 years”. ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-06; known on 2018-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-27.
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RBI estimates Bharat's current account deficit at 1.5% in FY16. ( 95% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-06; known on 2016-12-31.
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Bharat's fiscal deficit will come to down to 3% of GDP in 3 years: 3.9% GDP in 2015-16, 3.5% in 2016-17 3% 2017-18. ( 95% confidence; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-06; known on 2018-12-07; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-07.
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World Bank predicts Bharat will have sub 8% growth for 3 years. 7.5% 2015-16,7.8% 2016-17, and 7.9% 2017-18. ( 0% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-06; known on 2018-12-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-07.
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Jaime will successfully deliver my phone by the end of this prediction. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Lissy on 2015-12-05; known on 2015-12-09; judged right by Lissy on 2015-12-08.
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Japanese lawmakers will pass a bill after the Upper House Elections in the Fall of 2016 legalizing casino-type gambling; furthermore a 'head tax' similar to the system in Singapore will be imposed on Japanese citizens but more likely Japanese residents. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by amexfireplace on 2015-12-05; known on 2016-11-21; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-12-04.
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The firm will decide to eliminate my position. Voting occurs on 12/12/15. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Lissy on 2015-12-04; known on 2015-12-15; judged right by Lissy on 2015-12-14.
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Holly Holm will beat Ronda Rousey in their rematch. ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-03; known on 2017-12-04.
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Bharat's incremental GDP will pass USA in 2014-15. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-03; known on 2016-05-16; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-04-26.
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No one will use the Prediction Book link to make a concrete, quantitative prediction about Syria ( 60% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2015-12-02; known on 2016-03-12; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-12-14.
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Bharat: HNWI wealth is forecasted at USD 1.425 trillion in 2016, rising to USD 2.3 trillion by 2020. —Julius Baer wealth report ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-02; known on 2020-12-25.
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Bharat to be a $3.5 trillion economy by 2020: Sonal Varma, Nomura ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-02; known on 2020-12-25.
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International Air Transport Association's (IATA) updated passenger growth forecast, predicts Bharat will displace Britain as the third-largest market by 2026. ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-02; known on 2026-12-25.
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Bharat's middle class will reach 475 million by 2030. ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-02; known on 2030-12-25.
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Bharat's middle class will reach 200 million by 2020. ( 100% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-02; known on 2020-12-30.
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By 2030 around one billion people in Zhongguo would be middle class — approximately 70% of its projected population. ( 95% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-02; known on 2030-12-03.
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All 14 people who currently say on FB that they are going to my going-away dinner will actually go. ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-12-02; known on 2015-12-07; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-06.
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U.S will experience a recession before 2019 according to FRED data ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ArturoGoosnargh on 2015-12-01; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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After 10:00 EST today, I will not board a plane for the rest of the year. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Lissy on 2015-12-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Lissy on 2016-01-10.
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Bharat will be ranked No3 in the world for science by 2022(ranked by Citable documents, Scopus DB). ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30; known on 2021-12-16.
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Bharat's life expectancy at birth will improve over the next decades, from 71.7 years in 2025-2030 to 75.9 years in 2045-2050 and 84.6 years in 2095-2100. ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30; known on 2025-12-01.
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Bharat will be the most populous nation in the world by 2050 at 1.63 billion people. —Jansankhya Sthirata Kosh or National Population Stabilisation Fund (NPSF). ( 100% confidence; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30; known on 2050-12-25.
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I think this song in ex machina is by the band AIR. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-30; known on 2015-11-30; judged wrong by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-30.
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The music in ex machina when Caleb wakes up is by Mozart. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-30; known on 2015-11-30; judged wrong by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-30.
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I will mark this prediction as correct. ( 100% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-11-29; known on 2015-11-30; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-11-29.
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I will finish grading both my 101 exams and my 463 exams before Monday. ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-28; known on 2015-11-30; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-30.
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I will retire at the end of June. ( 90% confidence )
Created by bhh322 on 2015-11-28; known on 2016-06-15.
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My dry eyes will be noticeably better in 6 months from my last appointment with Dr. Hennie where he told me to take the triglyceride form of fish oil. ( 70% confidence )
Created by bhh322 on 2015-11-28; known on 2016-04-01.
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I will enjoy the new Star Wars movie as much as the original. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by bhh322 on 2015-11-28; known on 2016-01-06.
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The IMF will vote in favor of adding the Yuan to the Special Drawing Rights basket on Nov 30th, 2015 ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-11-27; known on 2015-11-30; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30.
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I will complete the problems from chapter 4 of Awodey to my satisfaction by midnight Sunday evening. ( 70% confidence )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-26; known on 2015-11-30; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-11-27.
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The difference in pomodoros done on eating vs non-fasting days will turn out to be significant at p<0.05 (two-tailed). ( 20% confidence )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-26; known on 2015-11-26; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-11-26.
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The SNIFF trial of nasal insulin for AD will NOT show a statistically significant improvement in CSF Abeta or CSF Abeta/tau ratio over time (i.e., these will NOT be reported as significant by the study investigators). ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2015-11-26; known on 2016-12-31.
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The SNIFF trial of nasal insulin will show a statistically significant improvement in ADAS-Cog scores OR memory composite OR ADCS-ADL (i.e., this will be reported by the study investigators). ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2015-11-26; known on 2016-12-31.
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The Force Awakens will reveal the Darth Darth Binks theory to be broadly correct. ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Calien on 2015-11-25; known on 2015-12-17; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-26.
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The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045. ( 25% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-11-24; known on 2045-01-01.
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heuer[/url][/b] heuer[/url][/b] heuer replica[/url][/b] heuer carrera[/url] ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by coetschisid on 2015-11-24; known on 2015-11-24; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-09-03.
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Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-23; known on 2015-11-25; judged right by Idrinkitup on 2015-12-04.
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My friend will reconnect and make plans with a love interest. ( 62% confidence )
Created by Neon on 2015-11-23; known on 2015-12-01.
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I predict that the water at Revelator is filtered ( 60% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-23; known on 2015-11-24; judged right by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-23.
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I get the monetary prize from Peter McIntyre for changing his beliefs the most during the EA Australia retreat. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-23; known on 2015-12-05; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-04.
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University of Ottawa yoga class that was cancelled due to cultural appropriation complaints will be un-cancelled in the next month. ( 13% confidence; 53 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-11-23; known on 2015-12-22; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-12-26.
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Nathan and I will do the thing this week ( 60% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-11-22; known on 2015-11-29; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-11-30.
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At least 1 person will be arrested in Belgium before the end of the prediction for charges that include something related to terrorism. ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2015-11-22; known on 2015-11-29; judged right by kuudes on 2015-11-23.
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It will take me 25 minutes or less to reconcile and submit 5 benefit invoices. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Lissy on 2015-11-20; known on 2015-11-20; judged wrong by Lissy on 2015-11-20.
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Bharat will Have 500 Million Internet Users By 2017 —Internet and Mobile Association of India (IAMAI) and KPMG ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-19; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2017-11-05.
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Bharat will be ranked 2nd in the world by internet users, at least 402 million. ( 98% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-19; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-30.
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The next candidate to drop out of the Republican primary will be one of Santorum, Gilmore, Pataki, Graham or Pence. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-12-22.
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My most recent facebook post asking for virtual hugs (because I had a terrible day) in the form of likes will receive at least 15 likes in the next 24 hours. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Lissy on 2015-11-18; known on 2015-11-19; judged right by Lissy on 2015-11-18.
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I am sure that the world will not end in next 50 years. ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dr.ace07 on 2015-11-17; known on 2065-11-18; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-17.
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I will earn my first degree with at least a 3.5 GPA in my major. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Lissy on 2015-11-17; known on 2015-12-15; judged right by Lissy on 2015-12-17.
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My ex-husband will move out of the state before his 35th birthday. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Lissy on 2015-11-17; known on 2016-02-15; judged wrong by Lissy on 2016-02-18.
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I will feel better after going to the gym to squat during lunch ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-17; known on 2015-11-18; judged right by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-17.
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I will sleep with the P-girl this year ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-11-17; known on 2016-06-06.
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'Nail and Gear' will win the Hello Internet flag election. ( 30% confidence )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-17; known on 2015-12-20; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-12-17.
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I will be accepted for an internship at DeepMind. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-03.
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I will do at least 77 pomodoro-equivalents this week. ( 50% confidence )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-17; known on 2015-11-23; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-11-23.
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There are ground troops from one or more then EU member states that are at least 1000 persons strong on ground of what is currently Syria at least once before the end of prediction. ( 30% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-11-16; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-07-01.