Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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The CBOE's stock price will go above $75 before January 1, 2017 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-18.
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Apple's stock price will go above $110 before February 1, 2016 ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-02-02; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.
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Apple's stock price will go above $120 before January 1, 2017. ( 56% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-02; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by mortehu on 2016-12-30.
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The Hyatt cyberattacks will not be definitively traced to nation-state actors before January 1st, 2017. ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-08.
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2016 will be the hottest year ever recorded (since historical records began) ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-18.
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Ansh pushes the complete engine before tomorrow morning. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2016-01-02.
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Rey was a child trained at Luke's Jedi Academy. ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2017-12-21.
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Rey is a child of Luke Skywalker ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2017-12-21.
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Rey is a Kenobi ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2017-12-21.
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Rey is a reincarnated Anakin Skywalker ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2017-12-21.
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Ebola epidemic has ended. ( 93% confidence; 16 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-01-14; judged right by ioannes on 2016-01-14.
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Swift will be a more popular choice than Rust for writing REST APIs ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by workbean on 2016-01-01; known on 2017-06-01.
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2016 predictions: I will end up being underconfident on my 2016 predictions. ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: No US politicians will be assassinated. ( 92% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: there will not be any terrorist attacks in the US that kill more than 40 people. ( 74% confidence; 22 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12.
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2016 predictions: World War III will happen. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: At the end of the year AMF will still be a GiveWell recommended charity. ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-29.
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2016 predictions: GiveWell will add a charity to their recommendations that is not on the current list (AMF, SCI, Deworm the World, GiveDirectly). ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-29.
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2016 predictions: I will have a baby. ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: I will end the year still living in the Boston area. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: I will complete 1 (or more) Kaggle competitions. ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-10.
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2016 predictions: I will complete 2 (or more) Kaggle competitions. ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-10.
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2016 predictions: I will complete 3 or more Kaggle competitions. ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: I will have >100 new (resolved) predictions on PredictionBook. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-06-27.
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2016 predictions: I will have >365 new (resolved) predictions on PredictionBook. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: I will still be a vegetarian or pescetarian at the end of the year. ( 91% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: I will be a vegan at the end of the year. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: Sam will be a vegetarian, pescetarian, or vegan at the end of the year. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: I will post 5 or more blog posts. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: Sam will post 5 or more blog posts. ( 75% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-06-27.
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2016 predictions: I will not identify as religious by the end of 2016. ( 98% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: I will go to the emergency room, for myself or someone else. ( 15% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-06-27.
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2016 predictions: Sam will attend grad school. ( 35% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: We’ll buy a new car. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: I will run a marathon. ( 14% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: I will attend Burning Man. ( 82% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-09-05.
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2016 predictions: Sam will attend Burning Man. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-09-05.
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2016 predictions: I will make >5 new drawings that I like enough to post in my Facebook album. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-06-27.
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Olivia will not give any instrumental rationality material to Regex ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by daniel74f on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by regex on 2016-01-25.
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Skyscraper (“The Address”) fire in Dubai was set intentionally ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by hedges on 2015-12-31; known on 2016-01-14; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-17.
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Donald Trump to be the next US President. ( 26% confidence; 73 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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At least one nuclear power plant will produce usable power in Australia by 1/1/2026. ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2015-12-30; known on 2026-01-01.
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Iraqi government will liberate Mosul, their most important stronghold from Islamic State. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-29; known on 2017-12-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-16.
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Sam's stolen phone will be recovered. ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-29; known on 2016-01-28; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-28.
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Rey is Luke's daughter. ( 59% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-12-29; known on 2019-12-29; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-11-01.
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I will still be employed at my current job one year after my start date. ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-12-28; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-10-05.
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Magnesium infused with silicon carbide nanoparticles will be used as major structural component for cars by 2025. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-26; known on 2025-01-01.
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The Yemen civil war will be won by the Revolutionary Committee, and the Saudi-led Coalition(US,UK) will be defeated. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-26; known on 2024-12-25.
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Iraqi government will liberate Ramadi from Islamic State. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-26; known on 2016-01-12; judged right by kuudes on 2015-12-28.
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I will complete the DAND program by the end of January 2016. ( 70% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2015-12-26; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-02-01.
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I will write a blog post about “One Minute to Midnight” tomorrow. ( 80% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2015-12-26; known on 2015-12-27; judged right by ioannes on 2015-12-27.
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I will submit my third DAND project by the end of the weekend. ( 65% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2015-12-26; known on 2015-12-28; judged wrong by ioannes on 2015-12-29.
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I will sell my Subaru Forester before returning to the Bay Area ( 30% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2015-12-26; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by ioannes on 2015-12-29.
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I will finish “Learn Python the Hard Way” by the end of 2015 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2015-12-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-01-04.
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Pedro Sánchez will be the next President of the Government of Spain ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ArturoGoosnargh on 2015-12-25; known on 2016-03-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-05.
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By the end of 2020, more than half of the babies born that year are going to be genomically sequenced as soon as they're born. ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-25; known on 2024-01-01.
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75% of the population within Syria's currently recognized borders will be under the direct or indirect control of a single goverment by 2017. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-12-24; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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The Priv will be the last Blackberry branded phone released by Research in Motion as an independent entity. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by quanticle on 2015-12-24; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by quanticle on 2017-01-02.
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Research In Motion will either declare bankruptcy protection or will be acquired. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by quanticle on 2015-12-24; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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codeword: jxa ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Daniel Reeves on 2015-12-24; known on 2016-12-23; judged right by Daniel Reeves on 2016-12-23.
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Gift from N is a kitchen appliance. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-12-24; known on 2015-12-28.
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Gift from S is a sharp implement. ( 25% confidence )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-12-24; known on 2015-12-28.
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Gift from S is a non-fiction book. ( 12% confidence )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-12-24; known on 2015-12-28.
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Gift from S is a fiction book. ( 24% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-12-24; known on 2015-12-28.
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J is no longer Christian. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-12-24; known on 2030-01-01.
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The next candidate to drop out of the Republican primary will be one of Santorum, Gilmore, Pataki, or Huckabee. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-22; known on 2016-01-25; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-30.
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By 2046 0% children under 5 will be underweight globally. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-21; known on 2046-12-25.
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By 2038 less than 3.6% children under 5 will be underweight globally. ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-21; known on 2038-12-25.
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By 2050 stunting will be at 0% globally. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-21; known on 2050-12-25.
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By 2038 stunting for under 5 children will be under 7.8% globally. ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-21; known on 2038-12-25.
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Amazon will launch a consumer-facing courier service that competes with the likes of UPS and FedEx by 2025. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-12-21; known on 2025-01-01.
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I will have grades in for all three classes before Tuesday evening. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-20; known on 2015-12-22; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-26.
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Antonio Costa's government won't survive its entire term ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoaoEira on 2015-12-19; known on 2019-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-11-16.
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Ochem and Rao's bound on OPNs to be improved by January 1, 2017. Details in comments. ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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Bharat will be the 2nd largest smartphone market globally by 2017 — Strategy Analytics, IDC. ( 100% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-19; known on 2017-12-25; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.
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Bharat's National Highways to reach 150 000km in length from 100 000km today. ( 90% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-19; known on 2016-12-25.
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There will be at least 3 candidates for U.S. President polling at 10%+ on the eve of the 2016 elections. ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sflicht on 2015-12-19; known on 2016-11-07; judged wrong by sflicht on 2016-11-08.
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The Spanish government that is produced by the Spanish general elections 2015 has only 1 party. (considering local variants of the same party or similar as same party) ( 27% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-12-18; known on 2016-01-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-03-02.
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The Spanish government that is produced by the Spanish general elections 2015 has at least 2 parties. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-12-18; known on 2016-01-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-03-02.
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In Spanish general elections 2015, PSOE will gain most seats. ( 18% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2015-12-18; known on 2016-01-14; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-12-21.
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In Spanish general elections 2015, PP will get most seats. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2015-12-18; known on 2016-01-14; judged right by kuudes on 2015-12-21.
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Brasil will be ranked at least 8th in the medal tally table, with 27 medals overall. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-18; known on 2016-08-22; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-22.
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Rossiya will be ranked 3rd in the medal tally for Rio Olympics. ( 54% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-18; known on 2016-08-22; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-22.
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Zhongguo will top the Rio Olympics overall and gold medal tally. ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-18; known on 2016-08-22; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-22.
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At least one of the UK, France, Germany, US or China will not meet their goals committed at the UN climate change conference in Paris. ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-17; known on 2021-01-01.
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Reddit will exist in a recognizably similar form to its current incarnation, as of December 31, 2019. ( 70% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sflicht on 2015-12-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by sflicht on 2020-01-01.
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Theranos still exists as an independent company in 2025 (it's allowed to rename). ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ChristianKl on 2015-12-16; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-08.
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Theranos will get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood-tests by 2017 ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ChristianKl on 2015-12-16; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2017-05-02.
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Theranos will get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood-tests by 2019 ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ChristianKl on 2015-12-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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By 2038 0% of children will be underweight in Bharat. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-16; known on 2038-12-25.
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By 2030 child malnutrition(underweight) in Bharat will fall to 7.4%. ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-16; known on 2030-12-25.
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By 2022, child malnutrition(underweight) in Bharat will fall to 18.4%. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-16; known on 2022-12-25.
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Malnutrition trends in Bharat:By 2030 Wasting among under 3 children will be at 0%. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-16; known on 2030-12-25.
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Malnutrition trends in Bharat:By 2022 Wasting will be at 8.2% among under 3 children. ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-16; known on 2022-12-25.
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Malnutrition trends in Bharat: Stunting -Under 3 children in 2022 will be under 32.5%. ( 100% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-16; known on 2022-12-17.
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Bharat will win more than 10 medals at Rio 2016 — Sports Minister Sarbananda Sonowal ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-16; known on 2016-08-22; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-22.
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Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank will pass the World Bank in terms of loans(billions of dollars per year) made. ( 100% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-15; known on 2022-12-25.
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The New Development Bank will make more loans in billions of dollars per year, than the IMF by 2022. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-15; known on 2022-12-16.
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Bharat's HDI will be > 0.856 by 2048. ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-15; known on 2048-12-25.
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Since 2001, the total number of low-income countries has nearly halved to 34, as 31 graduated to middle-income status. By 2026, another 31 will graduate, leaving only 3 countries in low income status. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-15; known on 2026-12-25.