PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I will complete my 30day push-up challenge in the next three weeks (I am now halfway through) ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by taryneast on 2015-09-03; known on 2015-09-24; judged right by taryneast on 2015-09-18.

This final PB API test will work correctly ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by raehik on 2015-09-02; known on 2015-09-02; judged wrong by raehik on 2015-09-02.

This PB API date + time test will work correctly ( 40% confidence )

Created by raehik on 2015-09-02; known on 2015-09-02; judged right by raehik on 2015-09-02.

My first PredictionBook API call will work ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by raehik on 2015-09-02; known on 2015-09-02; judged wrong by raehik on 2015-09-02.

I will not have credentials to my school's web hosting by the end of next week. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by raehik on 2015-09-02; known on 2015-09-11; judged right by raehik on 2015-09-17.

Cause Prioritization Wiki to have 500 pageviews per day by end of 2016 ( 25% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-09-02; known on 2017-01-01.

I will be hospitalised at some point by the end of the year ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Josh Holland on 2015-09-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2016-01-01.

Right-leaning political parties, relative to the political parties currently in power, will control a greater number of majority positions of executive or (all) legislative branches of EU-member countries than at present. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Afforess on 2015-09-01; known on 2025-09-01.

I will have the analytics update ready tomorrow. ( 30% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-31; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-09-01.

I will fix the versioning issue tomorrow. ( 50% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-31; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-09-01.

I will start a new relationship by the end of the year. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Josh Holland on 2015-08-30; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2016-01-01.

I will finish this book before going to sleep tonight. ( 10% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-30; known on 2015-08-31; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-30.

I will finish the current chapter (second to last) of this book before going to sleep tonight. ( 60% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-30; known on 2015-08-31; judged right by reubensandwich on 2015-08-30.

The Schengen Agreement will be terminated within 5 years. ( 26% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by danpop on 2015-08-29; known on 2018-08-29; judged wrong by sdr on 2018-08-29.

World's total fertility rate will fall to replacement rate by 2025. In 1960, women worldwide had an average of 5 children. The rate has since halved, and in 2012, women had an average of 2.5 children across all regions. The World Bank is the source. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-08-29; known on 2025-12-31.

Ted Cruz to win the Republican nomination for President. ( 14% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-27; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.

Valve will use the Reborn client for TI6 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by _W_ on 2015-08-27; known on 2016-09-01; judged right by _W_ on 2015-10-20.

Valve will use the Reborn client for the Spring 2016 Dota 2 major tournament ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by _W_ on 2015-08-27; known on 2016-06-16; judged right by _W_ on 2015-10-20.

Valve will use the Reborn client for the Winter 2015 Dota 2 major tournament ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by _W_ on 2015-08-27; known on 2016-04-16; judged right by _W_ on 2015-10-20.

Valve will use the Reborn client for the Fall 2015 Dota 2 major tournament ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by _W_ on 2015-08-27; known on 2015-12-16; judged right by _W_ on 2015-10-20.

I will have a draft of the updated analytics available by the end of the week. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-27; known on 2015-08-29; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-30.

My older pull will be merged today. ( 60% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-27; known on 2015-08-28; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-30.

My pull will be merged today. ( 75% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-27; known on 2015-08-28; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-30.

I will push the pull updates before lunch. ( 90% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-27; known on 2015-08-27; judged right by reubensandwich on 2015-08-30.

By January 1, 2035 superconductor with critical temperature at least 200 K at 1 atmosphere of pressure will be discovered. ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-27; known on 2035-01-01.

By January 1, 2034, at least 5 superconducting lines to be active parts of one of the major American electric grids. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-27; known on 2034-01-01.

By January 1, 2036, shown that at least the first 10^15 non-trivial zeros of the Riemann Zeta function obey the Riemann hypothesis (that is lie on the s= 1/2 line) ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-27; known on 2036-01-01.

By January 1, 2042, proven that at least 9/10ths of the non-trivial zeros of the Riemann zeta function lie on the real line (proportionally). ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-27; known on 2042-01-01.

The fed will increase the effective federal funds rate by the end of 2016 by at least .5% ( 61% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by prophetofprofit on 2015-08-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

US obesity rate above 31.6% in 2030 ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-26; known on 2031-01-01.

US obesity rate above 28.9% in 2020 ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-26; known on 2021-01-01.

beeminder.com will operate through 2025-09-01 ( 60% confidence )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-26; known on 2025-09-01.

Global Income Inequality as measured by Gini coefficient based on incomes in constant International dollars (which has so far been calculated by Branko Milanovic of the World Bank) will be less in 2017 than what it was in 2008. ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by rznsri@gmail.com on 2015-08-26; known on 2017-12-30.

Technology will continue to advance ( 97% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Tacita on 2015-08-26; known on 2016-08-26; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-28.

We won't miss any train in our connection. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Chri on 2015-08-26; known on 2015-08-26; judged right by Chri on 2015-08-28.

I will complete the proposal tomorrow. ( 60% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-26; known on 2015-08-27; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-27.

I will write all the required tests tomorrow morning. ( 75% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-26; known on 2015-08-26; judged right by reubensandwich on 2015-08-27.

I will have to help debug the configuration error. ( 50% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-26; known on 2015-08-27; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-27.

Bernie Sanders will win the 2016 Iowa Democratic caucus. ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-25; known on 2016-02-02; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-02.

Joe Biden will win the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. ( 10% confidence; 28 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-25; known on 2016-09-15; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-09-02.

I will read a chapter before dinner. ( 80% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-25; known on 2015-08-25; judged right by reubensandwich on 2015-08-26.

I will finish updates based on yesterday's review before 3. ( 75% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-25; known on 2015-08-25; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-26.

I will have the proposal ready for review before lunch. ( 40% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-25; known on 2015-08-25; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-26.

Brayden will get accepted into YC at today's interview. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by dusk on 2015-08-25; known on 2015-08-27; judged wrong by dusk on 2015-08-26.

Artificial ears which are comparable to or superior than natural ears will be developed by 2050 ( 60% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-25; known on 2050-01-01.

Artificial eyes which allow the user to score 20/20 or better on a visual acuity test will be developed by 2050 ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-25; known on 2050-01-02.

Bicycling mortality rate in US will be above 0.06 in 2050 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-24; known on 2051-01-01.

Bicycling mortality rate in US will be above 0.09 in 2040 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-24; known on 2041-01-01.

Bicycling mortality rate in US will be above 0.12 in 2030 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-24; known on 2031-01-01.

I will get a library card by the end of the month. ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-24; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-09-03.

I will do enough tomorrow morning before going to work. ( 30% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-24; known on 2015-08-24; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-25.

I will do any work tonight. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-24; known on 2015-08-24; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-25.

Non-condom reversible male contraception approved by the FDA by 2030 ( 73% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-23; known on 2030-01-02.

I will win this LoL match ( 51% confidence )

Created by Nikolas on 2015-08-23; known on 2015-08-23; judged right by Nikolas on 2015-08-23.

The VIX index will go above 32 before September 18th, 2015. ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-08-23; known on 2015-09-18; judged right by kuudes on 2015-08-24.

The Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in September. ( 75% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-08-23; known on 2015-09-17; judged right by Afforess on 2015-09-17.

In the wake of Alphabet, we'll see a boom and subsequent crash of google-related projects. ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by kallman on 2015-08-22; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by timujin on 2018-01-16.

I will complete most of the rennovation tasks before my roommate returns in october (ie >75%) ( 75% confidence )

Created by kallman on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-10-20; judged right by kallman on 2015-10-27.

I will complete all the little home renovation tasks on my list before my roommate returns in October. ( 20% confidence )

Created by kallman on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-10-20; judged wrong by kallman on 2015-10-27.

I will pass my L exam (again), and allow it to expire (again). ( 80% confidence )

Created by kallman on 2015-08-22; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by kallman on 2017-12-31.

Bicycling mortality rate in US will be above 0.16 in 2020 ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-22; known on 2021-01-02.

Burning man predictions: I will get at least 1 bug bite. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-09-07; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-07.

Burning man predictions: I will have a nightmare involving bugs. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-09-07; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-07.

Burning man predictions: Giant penis tower will be there again. ( 65% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-09-07; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-07.

Burning man predictions: I will see Vika. ( 99% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-09-07; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-07.

Burning man predictions: We’ll miss our connecting flight on the way there. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-09-07; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-07.

Burning man predictions: I will cry >0 times. ( 40% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-09-07; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-07.

Burning man predictions: I will see >0 topless girls. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-09-07; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-07.

Burning man predictions: I will throw up on the plane. ( 8% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-09-07; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-07.

I will get a 4 or 5 on all my AP exams ( 98% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by thebaelfire on 2015-08-22; known on 2017-06-16; judged right by thebaelfire on 2017-07-14.

I will get a 5 on all my AP exams. ( 80% confidence )

Created by thebaelfire on 2015-08-22; known on 2017-06-16; judged wrong by thebaelfire on 2017-07-14.

Earth shock will be rated at least 60 on http://www.heartharena.com/tierlist ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PurpleDango on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-08-22; judged wrong by PurpleDango on 2015-08-22.

Invest 97L will become at least a category 1 hurricane ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Afforess on 2015-08-21; known on 2015-09-07; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-08-25.

By January 1, 2045, a superconductor with a critical temperature of at least 240 K will be discovered. ( 65% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-21; known on 2045-01-01.

By January 1, 2035, a superconductor which has a critical temperature of at least 225 K will be discovered. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-21; known on 2035-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-10-15.

By January 1, 2035, a superconductor with critical temperature at leas 215 K will be discovered. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-21; known on 2035-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-10-15.

Uber will be banned from Manhattan by the end of 2016. ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by mikayla on 2015-08-21; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2017-01-01.

Raccoons will show up between 8/20/2015 and 8/27/2015 and destroy more of my water lilies. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by ialdabaoth on 2015-08-21; known on 2015-08-28.

The VIX index goes above 16.00 any time before Sept 18, 2015 ( 89% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-08-20; known on 2015-09-18; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-08-20.

As of 2015-08-19, Eliezer Yudkowsky has solved the hard problem of consciousness. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-08-20; known on 2045-08-20.

Alex will learn how to ride a bike at Burning Man. ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-19; known on 2015-09-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-09-24.

Nothing very spectacular will happen in the stock market in the next couple of months. ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by mayanju on 2015-08-19; known on 2015-10-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-23.

Russia will be aggressive toward Finland. ( 65% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by mayanju on 2015-08-19; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-08-30.

I think Russia will aggress other countries, too, not just Ukraine. ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by mayanju on 2015-08-19; known on 2017-07-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-09.

Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050 ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-19; known on 2051-01-01.

The Rigs Will Burn! Rigs have fallen by -1029 in just one year according to Baker Hughes as of August 7.There are only 884 rigs left alive. 1 more year of this, and all the rigs will have burned down. Shout Allahu Akbar as Iran delivers Coup de grâce. ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 16 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-08-19; known on 2016-09-28; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-09-28.

I will get rained on at ArcTanGent Festival ( 75% confidence )

Created by Josh Holland on 2015-08-18; known on 2015-08-23; judged right by Josh Holland on 2015-08-23.

Gathering/absorbing Hawking radiation and generating a net surplus of useful energy (not counting what you feed into the black hole) would violate the Second Law of Thermodynamics. ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by orthonormal on 2015-08-18; known on 2016-01-01.

Home repairs will run more than 10% over budget ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by moridinamael on 2015-08-17; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by moridinamael on 2016-03-09.

Home repairs will run more than 20% over budget ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by moridinamael on 2015-08-17; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by moridinamael on 2016-03-09.

There will be 1000 people living in space habitats before there are 1000 people living on Mars ( 77% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by moridinamael on 2015-08-17; known on 2100-01-01.

California will experience a magnitude 6.0 earthquake or stronger in 2015 ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Afforess on 2015-08-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-01-07.

Invest 96L will become at least a Category 1 hurricane ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Afforess on 2015-08-17; known on 2015-08-31; judged right by Afforess on 2015-08-20.

Almost all commercial airplanes will have outlets by 2030 ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by cmessinger on 2015-08-17; known on 2030-01-07.

Almost all commercial airplanes will have wifi by 2019 ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by cmessinger on 2015-08-17; known on 2019-01-07; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.

Greece will have a Guaranteed Minimum Income or other type of basic income before end of 06/2017 for more than 90% of its working age population. ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by kuudes on 2015-08-16; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-02.

The computer will reach a hotter maximum temperature during stress test inside the minifridge than outside (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8bhGw4vUFE) ( 80% confidence )

Created by PurpleDango on 2015-08-16; known on 2015-08-16; judged right by PurpleDango on 2015-08-16.

Armed conflict in space before 2050 ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-16; known on 2050-01-01.

I'll keep translating a post from the Sequences a day for a week ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Nikolas on 2015-08-16; known on 2015-08-24; judged wrong by Nikolas on 2015-08-20.

Greater than 25% of US utility companies that exist as of 2015 will file for bankruptcy by 2035 ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-16; known on 2035-01-01.

Statistics

Recent Predictions