PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

First virtual tourism in 7 years. ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2021-08-13; judged right by stepan on 2021-09-12.

First artificial intelligent sex worker in 10 years ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2024-08-13.

First artificial intelligent teacher in 10 years. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2024-08-13.

There will be no border in 200 years. ( 10% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2214-08-13.

There will be no religion in 100 years. ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2114-08-13.

There will be no war in 50 years. ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2064-08-13.

I'll find out the truth about Soka-Gakkai International in 7 days. ( 1% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2014-08-20; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-20.

My wife's debit card is in the bedroom ( 85% confidence )

Created by Ixiel on 2014-08-13; known on 2014-08-20; judged right by Ixiel on 2014-08-22.

Someone will find out that the Family Guy episode about Robin Williams airing before Robin Williams' death is statistically unlikely to occur, and therefore it is very suspicious, in 7 days. ( 5% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2014-08-20; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-20.

My dad and step-mom divorce within the next two years ( 0% confidence )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-12; known on 2016-08-12; judged right by Ham Nox on 2016-05-02.

Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project. ( 1% confidence; 27 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2014-08-12; known on 2024-08-12.

I will submit exactly 1 paper by Sept 15 ( 40% confidence )

Created by dgray on 2014-08-11; known on 2014-09-15; judged wrong by dgray on 2014-09-16.

Manchester United will not sign any players before September 2nd. ( 10% confidence )

Created by dgray on 2014-08-11; known on 2014-09-02; judged wrong by dgray on 2014-08-19.

Manchester United will sign 3 players before Sept 2nd ( 15% confidence )

Created by dgray on 2014-08-11; known on 2014-09-02; judged wrong by dgray on 2014-09-03.

Manchester United will sign exactly1 player before September 2nd. ( 15% confidence )

Created by dgray on 2014-08-11; known on 2014-09-02; judged wrong by dgray on 2014-08-27.

Manchester United will sign 2 players before September 2nd. ( 50% confidence )

Created by dgray on 2014-08-11; known on 2014-09-02; judged wrong by dgray on 2014-08-31.

Some kind of altercation between China and Japan leads to missiles being launched by the end of 2014 ( 3% confidence )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-11; known on 2015-01-02; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-02.

Hillary Clinton will be elected President in 2016. ( 29% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-11; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.

a formation of UFO that will be seen over a major U.S. city before the end of 2014 ( 1% confidence )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-01.

Next season of House of Cards features the orchestrated resignation of a SCOTUS judge. ( 20% confidence )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-10; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-05.

I have back pain. It'll be gone in 1 day. ( 25% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-10; known on 2014-08-11; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13.

Russia will close its borders by 2016 ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by rationalnoodles on 2014-08-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-23.

If the “impossible NASA EmDrive” turns out to be working, it will be due to the emission of some kind of EM radiation (thermal radiation, microwave leakage, etc.) by the experimental setup, unaccounted as of now (08/10/2014). That is, the engine either do ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by maxikov on 2014-08-10; known on 2024-08-10.

Hover and Anna will argue less often than average family in the similar conditions ( 75% confidence )

Created by varman on 2014-08-09; known on 2015-08-09.

I'm in bad mood. It'll be better in 2 days. ( 70% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-09; known on 2014-08-11; judged right by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13.

I have shoulder pain. It'll be gone in 1 day. ( 50% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-09; known on 2014-08-10; judged right by spacemammoth on 2014-08-10.

PredictionBook is distracting. That's why! Someone will agree with me in 7 days. ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-09; known on 2014-08-16; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-17.

After using PredictionBook, I'm fucking doing sucks at work. Why is that? Someone will answer me in 7 days. ( 30% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-09; known on 2014-08-16; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-17.

I will wake up as a cat tomorrow. ( 0% confidence )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-08; known on 2014-08-08; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-08-08.

I will get offered both the Macy's and Autism aide position ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-06; known on 2014-08-20; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23.

League of Legends will be still be the most popular game in the world by 2018 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by arghzoo on 2014-08-06; known on 2018-06-25.

The Twitter user I reported for abuse (@FilmCriticOne) will still have an active Twitter account one month from today. ( 84% confidence )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-08-05; known on 2014-09-05; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-09-05.

Blue Sky's “real sugar” sodas come in cans that are thinner than the standard can. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by etarletons on 2014-08-05; known on 2014-08-05; judged wrong by etarletons on 2014-08-05.

In one year, my room will contain no kumquats. ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-04; known on 2015-08-04; judged right by Ham Nox on 2015-08-05.

Je dessinerai, pour mon travail ou pour mon plaisir, au moins 2 fois par semaine en moyenne, que ce soit en congés ou au travail. ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Jean on 2014-08-04; known on 2014-11-04; judged wrong by Jean on 2014-11-04.

go to bed before 22:30 ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-04; known on 2014-08-04; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-04.

20 pushups today. ( 80% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-04; known on 2014-08-04; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-05.

I will not become paraplegic or otherwise significantly paralyzed within the next year. ( 98% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-03; known on 2015-08-03; judged right by Ham Nox on 2015-08-03.

I'll be waking up before 9:00 tomorrow ( 60% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-03; known on 2014-08-04; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-04.

I'll be getting something important out of watching Breaking Bad for my programming project in 2 days ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-03; known on 2014-08-05; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-05.

I'll not be reading news site like Yahoo for 1 week ( 40% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-03; known on 2014-08-10; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-10.

I'll be watching TV dramas everyday even after 1 week ( 30% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-03; known on 2014-08-10; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-10.

I will be going out with a girl next year. ( 8% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-03; known on 2015-07-02.

I'll be programming for Android OS within a year ( 60% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-03; known on 2015-08-03.

I'll be stop downloading TV shows because it is distracting in 3 days. ( 30% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-03; known on 2014-08-06; judged right by spacemammoth on 2014-08-06.

I'll not be googling who is “Bjorkiest” person in 3 days. ( 75% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-03; known on 2014-08-06; judged right by spacemammoth on 2014-08-06.

I'll not be listening to Nico and vine's song “Am I wrong” next week ( 90% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-03; known on 2014-08-10; judged right by spacemammoth on 2014-08-10.

I'll do 100 push ups today ( 10% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-03; known on 2014-08-03; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-04.

I'm going to have my hair cut short in 2 weeks. ( 30% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-03; known on 2014-08-17; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-17.

I'll implement Lorenz system on iOS in before 22:00. ( 30% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-03; known on 2014-08-03; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-03.

I'll go out today. ( 50% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-03; known on 2014-08-03; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-04.

I'll be still watching Jimmy Fallon one hour later ( 50% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-03; known on 2014-08-03; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-03.

Gradation will be animated at the end of the day. ( 50% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-03; known on 2014-08-03; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-03.

I'll be cooking tonight. ( 65% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-03; known on 2014-08-03; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-03.

I'll be predicting on this site tomorrow morning too. ( 65% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-03; known on 2014-08-04; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-04.

I'll still be alive at the end of 2014 ( 97% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Osuniev on 2014-08-03; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by woodse on 2015-01-16.

Parents will find a reasonn to hate their new neighborhood (in East Layton) within 3 years ( 15% confidence )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-02; known on 2017-08-02.

I will see Riley today. ( 60% confidence )

Created by booradleytron on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-08-03; judged wrong by booradleytron on 2014-08-04.

Apple is going to discontinue iPod touch in 3 years ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2017-08-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-08-04.

Apple is going to discontinue iPod classic this year ( 50% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2015-01-01.

My friends friend from Taiwan is actually not coming to Tokyo today… ( 10% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-08-02; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02.

Microsoft is gonna change its OS's name from Windows to something else within 5 years because people hate Windows. ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2019-08-02; judged wrong by IlliaHalaituk on 2019-08-03.

I wake up before 9:00 tomorrow. ( 50% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-08-02; judged right by spacemammoth on 2014-08-03.

Within 1 month, I'll be showing our prototype iPhone app to people not in our development team. ( 30% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-09-02; judged right by spacemammoth on 2014-09-03.

I'll turn on radio tonight ( 10% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-08-02; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-03.

I'll turn on TV tonight ( 80% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-08-02; judged right by spacemammoth on 2014-08-03.

Someone will thank me tonight. ( 40% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-08-02; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-03.

My friend will Skype me within 2 hours. ( 50% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-08-02; judged right by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02.

Some one call me before I go to sleep ( 5% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-08-02; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-03.

I'll be eating supper in one hour ( 80% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-08-02; judged right by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02.

I'll decide to take shower before I go to bed because I smells. ( 90% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-08-02; judged right by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02.

My headache will be gone in one hour ( 80% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-08-02; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02.

I keep entering my prediction until 1 hour later. ( 30% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-08-02; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02.

I'll discover something useful in this site within one week. ( 25% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-08-09; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-09.

I'll be addicted to this site even after 1 year. ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2015-08-02; judged wrong by David on 2015-08-02.

Sony will be bought by other company in 10 years. ( 10% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2024-08-02.

I'll find this site useful and keep using even one month later. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-09-02; judged right by spacemammoth on 2014-09-03.

iWatch will not be called iWatch. ( 60% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged right by Quintrino on 2014-09-18.

Ebola will be tamed in 3 months ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by mad on 2014-11-02.

My brother is coming back in 3 hours ( 40% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-08-02; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-03.

I will throw up in the next 6 months ( 10% confidence )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-02; known on 2015-02-02; judged right by Ham Nox on 2015-02-14.

I will be awarded the NSF GRFP this year. ( 30% confidence )

Created by spicedpiano on 2014-08-01; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by spicedpiano on 2015-05-01.

I will throw up in the next 12 months. (Aug 1 2014 – Aug 1 2015) ( 14% confidence )

Created by spicedpiano on 2014-08-01; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by spicedpiano on 2015-08-01.

[Pact web serial] Blake will not retake his position as Thorburn heir ( 70% confidence )

Created by sigmaleph on 2014-07-31; known on 2015-07-02; judged right by David on 2015-06-07.

[Pact web serial] Blake will leave the Drains. ( 95% confidence )

Created by sigmaleph on 2014-07-31; known on 2015-07-02; judged right by sigmaleph on 2014-08-15.

30 Jul Block C will take 90min to complete +/-10min ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-07-30; known on 2014-07-31; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-07-31.

30 Jul Block B will take 130min to complete +/- 10min ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-07-30; known on 2014-07-31; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2014-07-31.

United States will engage in war by the end of the year ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by blahblah on 2014-07-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

My team in the Good Judgment Project (PredictionBook on steroids) will finish in the top 5 of the 29 total teams. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-07-30; known on 2015-03-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2015-05-01.

I get an interview from WHS in the coming week (until 2nd) ( 25% confidence )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-27; known on 2014-08-02; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-08-02.

UKIP wins a seat at or before the next general election. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-07-27; known on 2015-05-08; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-10-10.

(&) will become idiomatic in widespread Haskell code, from the beginner level within two years ( 99% confidence )

Created by jle on 2014-07-26; known on 2016-07-26; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-02-26.

Jaedong (zerg) will win this match (judged from 13:00): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yl5VXt7q9co ( 55% confidence )

Created by blubble on 2014-07-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by blubble on 2014-07-26.

Zerg player will win this match (judged at 32:00): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6vTPD1A2Zpw ( 60% confidence )

Created by blubble on 2014-07-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by blubble on 2014-07-26.

Cure will win this match (judged from the 7:30 mark): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYhoC_5p-to ( 70% confidence )

Created by blubble on 2014-07-25; known on 2014-07-25; judged wrong by blubble on 2014-07-25.

SoS will win this match (judged from the 8:30 minute mark): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43pzTMa1m_k ( 60% confidence )

Created by blubble on 2014-07-25; known on 2014-07-25; judged wrong by blubble on 2014-07-25.

Use of marijuana for recreation will be legalized in some/all states of Australia by 2016. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by blubble on 2014-07-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by blubble on 2016-01-01.

Australia will have legalized same-sex marriage by 2016 in some/all states. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by blubble on 2014-07-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by blubble on 2016-01-01.

House of Cards: There will be another death by the end of the second season. ( 64% confidence )

Created by booradleytron on 2014-07-23; known on 2014-08-16; judged right by booradleytron on 2014-07-31.

Team NewBee will be DOTA2 Champions of The International 2014 ( 60% confidence )

Created by qznc on 2014-07-21; known on 2014-07-22; judged right by qznc on 2014-07-22.

Statistics

Recent Predictions