PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I will have a source of sustainable passive income (minimum $400 per month, requiring < 2hrs per day from me) by the end of this year, so that I can go ahead and pursue my life's dreams full time. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by platypus42 on 2014-04-04; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by platypus42 on 2015-01-01.

Presence of life in the past (or present) that doesn't originate from Earth will be discovered in the solar system before 2050. ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-04-04; known on 2050-01-01.

Tammy Pham will not regret taking the summer position in New York rather than San Francisco. ( 80% confidence )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-04-04; known on 2014-08-31; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-08-31.

David Brin will respond to my comment on his Goodreads blogs within 7 days. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-04-02; known on 2014-04-09; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-04-14.

I think I will sleep before 12 PM. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02; known on 2014-04-03; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-04.

The drawing on the board is a depiction of the fat man dilemma. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-04-02; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-04-02.

NYRRB: I will keep my New Year's Resolutions until the summer solstice. ( 60% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-04-01; known on 2014-06-21; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-01.

An (other) astronomical object with a diameter bigger than Mercury will be discover in the Solar System before 2050. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-04-01; known on 2050-01-01.

Nintendo will release an official Pokemon RPG on Android by the end of 2015 ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by quicklystarfish on 2014-04-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by player_03 on 2016-01-01.

After deleting 2048 cookie, game state will be lost; will seem to be not saved anywhere else. ( 67% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-31; known on 2014-03-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-31.

My funding campaign for a website in Irish will do horribly. ( 95% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by lettergram on 2014-03-31; known on 2014-05-30; judged right by lettergram on 2014-06-27.

“By the end of the weekend, Europe’s biggest war since 1945 will have begun or Putin will have started to send the troops on the border home,” -John Schindler ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-03-28; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2014-04-01.

The PLQ will win the April 2014 Quebec elections. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-03-28; known on 2014-04-08; judged right by Mati on 2014-04-09.

As of March 27th, 2018, I will still consider “effective altruism” to be a key part of my identity, and will still be donating at least 10% of my income to charity, conditional on my not having become convinced that saving to donate later makes more sense ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-03-28; known on 2018-03-27; judged right by aarongertler on 2018-03-27.

A MH370 blackbox recovered ( 15% confidence )

Created by procran on 2014-03-27; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-07-01.

I will resolve the CFAR/YEI April 11th conflict in favor of YEI. ( 70% confidence )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-03-26; known on 2014-03-27; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-03-27.

finish quest by end of week ( 80% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-03-26; known on 2014-03-30; judged right by reesarose on 2014-04-01.

This thread (http://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/2173oq/what_movie_has_the_best_opening_scene/) will have “Up” as one of the top five answers. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-25; known on 2014-03-25; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-25.

Richard Walsh will compete in the finale fight for TUF: Nations (Welterweight) ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by mad on 2014-03-24; known on 2014-04-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-04.

Submarines will find flight MH370, or it will be forever lost. ( 86% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by refnum on 2014-03-24; known on 2014-06-15; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-07-06.

The Yale Record will make a profit of at least $1000 between September 1st, 2014 and June 1st, 2015, including alumni donations. ( 75% confidence )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-03-24; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2015-06-21.

stiles is the spirit? ( 50% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-03-23; known on 2014-03-30; judged right by reesarose on 2014-04-01.

go somewhere ( 50% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-03-23; known on 2014-03-29; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-30.

I will have made 10 predictions relating to events in my own life by September 1st, 2014. ( 65% confidence )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-03-23; known on 2014-09-01; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-09-01.

I will complete at least three more pomodoro cycles tonight. ( 70% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2014-03-22; known on 2014-03-23; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-24.

I will watch one of my three video lectures tonight. ( 60% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2014-03-22; known on 2014-03-23; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-24.

I will finish chapter ten of my book before going to sleep tonight. ( 80% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2014-03-22; known on 2014-03-23; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-24.

go to states ( 50% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-03-22; known on 2014-03-30; judged wrong by reesarose on 2014-04-01.

Malaysia Airlines did crashed at the ocean and there was no “hijack”. Probably I big “error” at the airplane system caused the transponder to disable, the pilots flied without see (because the GPS was off) and then a problem with the plane caused the cras ( 40% confidence )

Created by yeltsin on 2014-03-21; known on 2014-03-16; judged wrong by yeltsin on 2014-03-24.

LitSoc gets affiliated. ( 84% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-21; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-31.

One of the top five comments on this thread http://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/20wmxx/you_have_one_sentence_to_impress_your_dream/ will be that quote from Seinfeld. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-20; known on 2014-03-21; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-20.

I will finish chapter 10 of my textbook before going to sleep tonight. ( 35% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2014-03-20; known on 2014-03-21; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2014-03-22.

According to http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2014/03/18/289013884/who-had-richer-parents-doctors-or-arists artists have richer parents than doctors. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-20; known on 2014-03-20; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-20.

Get over cold by monday ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by reesarose on 2014-03-19; known on 2014-03-24; judged wrong by reesarose on 2014-03-26.

The NYT, WSJ, or The Economist will run an article claiming that Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 has been found (intact or not) before 2015. ( 44% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-03-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by mad on 2015-01-03.

Half-Life 3 is released in 2014. ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by tedks on 2014-03-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-31.

Manchester United will fail to score enough goals against Olympiakos tonight. ( 99% confidence )

Created by Nachlader on 2014-03-19; known on 2014-03-19; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2014-04-01.

babysit tomorrow ( 60% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-03-18; known on 2014-03-19; judged wrong by reesarose on 2014-03-19.

Half Life 3 will be announced at the next E3 convention. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by kindrapring on 2014-03-18; known on 2014-06-12; judged wrong by kindrapring on 2014-06-13.

David Moyes will not be Manchester United manager at the end of January 2015 ( 50% confidence )

Created by dgray on 2014-03-18; known on 2015-02-01; judged right by dgray on 2014-04-23.

Five more states will legalize same sex marriage by the end of 2014 ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by kindrapring on 2014-03-18; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kindrapring on 2015-01-07.

I will watch at least two episodes of breaking bad before going to sleep tonight. ( 90% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2014-03-17; known on 2014-03-18; judged right by reubensandwich on 2014-03-20.

I will finish season five of breaking bad before I go to sleep tonight (4 episodes left at this time, I started watching yesterday morning) ( 55% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2014-03-17; known on 2014-03-18; judged right by reubensandwich on 2014-03-20.

make cookies ( 80% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-03-17; known on 2014-03-18; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-18.

MH370 confirmed as landed on a runway anywhere in the world. ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by procran on 2014-03-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.

MH370 (or the wreckage) will be found by the start of 2015 ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by procran on 2014-03-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-01-01.

MH370 (or the wreckage) will be found by 1 April. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by procran on 2014-03-17; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by procran on 2014-04-02.

Crimea is applying for membership in the Russian Federation. This procedure takes from 3 days to 3 months. I predict that Crimea will be accepted as part of Russian Federation within 1 week. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jkadlubo on 2014-03-17; known on 2014-03-26; judged right by jkadlubo on 2014-03-20.

Crimea is applying for membership in the Russian Federation. This procedure takes from 3 days to 3 months. I predict that Crimea will be accepted as part of Russian Federation within 2 weeks. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jkadlubo on 2014-03-17; known on 2014-04-07; judged right by jkadlubo on 2014-03-20.

Crimea is applying for membership in the Russian Federation. This procedure takes from 3 days to 3 months. I predict that Crimea will be accepted as part of Russian Federation within 1 month. ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jkadlubo on 2014-03-17; known on 2014-04-20; judged right by jkadlubo on 2014-03-20.

Crimea is applying for membership in the Russian Federation. This procedure takes from 3 days to 3 months. I predict that Crimea will be accepted as part of Russian Federation within 2 months. ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jkadlubo on 2014-03-17; known on 2014-05-22; judged right by jkadlubo on 2014-03-20.

Manchester United will not make it to the next round of the Champions league ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by dgray on 2014-03-17; known on 2014-03-20; judged wrong by dgray on 2014-03-19.

clean room tomorrow ( 50% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-03-17; known on 2014-03-16; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-18.

Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 will be found before March 22nd 2014 (or the resting place will be narrowed down to a smaller than 100 square km area of ocean) ( 70% confidence )

Created by dusk on 2014-03-16; known on 2014-03-22; judged wrong by mfb on 2014-04-02.

fold towels ( 50% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-03-15; known on 2014-03-16; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-17.

Bitcoin will trade at greater than $1000 USD for a at least a week (contiguous) between 2014-03-14 (price now/then ~ $635 USD) and 2015-01-01. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by anonym on 2014-03-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-07-06.

Mariloup Wolfe will lose her legal proceedings against Gab Roy. ( 66% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Mati on 2014-03-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2016-05-01.

This prediction is currently judged 'Unknown' or 'Wrong'. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-03-15; known on 9999-01-01.

Froyo will get broken into by the end of the week. ( 60% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-03-13; known on 2014-03-22; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-23.

The valonqar is Tyrion Lannister. ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-13; known on 2019-03-13.

The valonqar is Jaime Lannister. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-13; known on 2019-03-13.

R+L=J ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-13; known on 2019-03-13; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-03-13.

It will snow in Southern Ontario (Canada) in April ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by satayana on 2014-03-13; known on 2014-04-30; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

do something during spring vaca ( 50% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-03-12; known on 2014-03-24; judged wrong by reesarose on 2014-03-26.

I will finish the CS pset by 3AM ( 50% confidence )

Created by entropy on 2014-03-12; known on 2014-03-13; judged wrong by entropy on 2014-03-13.

see Ian friday ( 80% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-03-12; known on 2014-03-15; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-15.

Arsenal will defeat Bayern Munich 3-1 ( 99% confidence )

Created by Nachlader on 2014-03-11; known on 2014-03-11; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2014-03-12.

There will be no direct “hot”/shooting military conflict between any of the US, France, Germany, the UK, and Russia in 2014 ( 94% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Benquo on 2014-03-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-01-02.

Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 was struck by a meteorite causing rapid disintegration. Alternatively, aircraft lengthening redesign gave way causing rapid disintegration. ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by refnum on 2014-03-11; known on 2014-04-30; judged wrong by procran on 2014-05-05.

I will get to class before the people walking. ( 99% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-10; known on 2014-03-11; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-10.

today will be fun ( 100% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-03-10; known on 2014-03-11; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-17.

Animal Charity Evaluators will publish their analysis on Joey and Xio's leafleting study by the end of March. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-03-10; known on 2014-04-01; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-03-20.

Denison will paint over all of the current graffiti within three weeks. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-03-10; known on 2014-03-31; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-03-25.

HP MoR: Sirius is not in Azkaban, and his replacement is Fudge ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2014-03-10; known on 2015-03-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-03-10.

I will be a finalist for the MA365 mission. ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2014-03-09; known on 2014-10-16; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-09-26.

An alive human from the Mars One organisation will have been on Mars before January 1st 2024. ( 6% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-03-09; known on 2024-01-01.

see ian this week ( 50% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-03-09; known on 2014-03-16; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-17.

Activities: FC ( 95% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.

Sport: TJ ( 94% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.

Community: SA ( 25% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.

Community: PB ( 36% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.

Community: TP ( 39% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.

PG Education ( 50% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.

JK President ( 22% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.

KA President ( 36% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.

PG President ( 42% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.

90% turnout CI: [3000,5650] ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2014-03-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.

Anna will order eggs instead of pancakes. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-03-09; known on 2014-03-09; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-03-09.

I will know between 10 and 20 of the trick listed on this page: http://sahandsaba.com/thirty-python-language-features-and-tricks-you-may-not-know.html ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-09; known on 2014-03-09; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-09.

HP MoR: Harry's father's rock is actually the Resurrection Stone. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by booradleytron on 2014-03-09; known on 2014-09-16; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2014-08-02.

I'll start a new water withing a few hours ( 90% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-03-08; known on 2014-03-09; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-09.

By 2024 James F will publicly express regret at the amount of time he wasted investigating the claims of various religions. ( 75% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2014-03-08; known on 2024-01-01.

Twitch Plays Pokemon will make it to Blackthorn City within 24 hours of this prediction. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-03-08; known on 2014-03-09; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-03-09.

West Brom will lose to Manchester United ( 60% confidence )

Created by dgray on 2014-03-07; known on 2014-03-08; judged right by dgray on 2014-03-08.

West Brom will draw against Manchester United ( 30% confidence )

Created by dgray on 2014-03-07; known on 2014-03-08; judged wrong by dgray on 2014-03-08.

West Brom will win against Manchester United ( 10% confidence )

Created by dgray on 2014-03-07; known on 2014-03-08; judged wrong by dgray on 2014-03-08.

I will drink tea tomorrow ( 80% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-03-07; known on 2014-03-08; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-08.

The Newsweek reporter will be fired within a year. ( 32% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2014-03-07; known on 2015-03-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-03-07.

HP MoR: Horcrux hijinks made Amycus Carrow go slightly Voldemorty ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by solipsist on 2014-03-06; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.

HP MoR: Before Quirrell strengthened the security on the Restricted section, Harry used Library magic to collate information on Horcruxes from scattered tales ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by solipsist on 2014-03-06; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.

Statistics

Recent Predictions