PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I will go home before monday. ( 65% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2014-02-16; known on 2014-02-17; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2014-02-17.

HPMoR: The spell of cursèd fire is Amaterasu. ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-02-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-23.

Within one week, the LessWrong post “White Lies” will have 800 comments or more ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Vulture on 2014-02-15; known on 2014-02-22; judged right by Vulture on 2014-02-21.

August was just joking that Barolo is a scam, and won't be able to recommend a great cheap alternative. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Benquo on 2014-02-14; known on 2014-02-15; judged wrong by Benquo on 2014-02-15.

This site would benefit from having a hashtag functionality for predictions, allowing for easy searching and being able to look up prediction accuracy for specific hashtags. ( 90% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by ZLM on 2014-02-14; known on 2019-02-14; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-08.

This site would become viral if the admins incorporated facebook integration (eg, your public predictions could automatically get shared on facebook). ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by ZLM on 2014-02-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-14.

Before the end of 2014, at least ten more schools will adopt Meditation programs following the four at San Fransisco (http://tinyurl.com/sanmed) ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by platypus42 on 2014-02-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by platypus42 on 2020-08-09.

At least one of my grandparents will get cryonically frozen before 2070. ( 15% confidence )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-14; known on 2070-01-01.

I will start a PhD before 2020. ( 10% confidence )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2020-01-03.

I will be a member of a cryonics organisation before 2022. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-14; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by Mati on 2022-01-01.

HPMoR: Harry Potter has asked the Weasleys for a computer. ( 15% confidence )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-14; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2016-12-11.

I will go to sleep before 5:00am. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-14; known on 2014-02-15; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-02-14.

i will see bf 2maro ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by reesarose on 2014-02-14; known on 2014-02-15; judged right by reesarose on 2014-02-17.

I will not to do handstand by myself in gymnastics today ( 80% confidence )

Created by captiancreeper19 on 2014-02-13; known on 2014-02-13; judged right by captiancreeper19 on 2014-02-14.

Dogecoin's market cap will surpass Litecoin's during 2014 ( 45% confidence; 16 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2014-02-13; known on 2015-01-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

ill get to see my boyfriend tomorrow ( 50% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-02-13; known on 2014-02-14; judged right by reesarose on 2014-02-17.

At least half of my showers this December will be cold. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-13; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

I will watch two or more video lectures tonight. ( 40% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2014-02-13; known on 2014-02-13; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2014-02-16.

I will watching this movie by 9 (run time ~100min, imdb categorizes it as an action drama, rating between 7.7 and 8.1) ( 85% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2014-02-13; known on 2014-02-13; judged right by reubensandwich on 2014-02-16.

I will ask the girl I am seeing on friday to be my girlfriend by the end of the weekend. ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by reubensandwich on 2014-02-13; known on 2014-02-17; judged right by reubensandwich on 2014-02-16.

I will not have a Valentine on Valentine's Day. ( 85% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-12; known on 2014-02-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-15.

Trishna's mail will be Jury Duty ( 85% confidence )

Created by Iksorod on 2014-02-12; known on 2014-02-12; judged wrong by Iksorod on 2014-02-12.

I will go see my grandparents this weekend. ( 99% confidence )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-12; known on 2014-02-17; judged right by Mati on 2014-02-17.

Google will have had the biggest market capitalization in the USA at some point before February 2019. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-17.

HPMoR: Voldemort was good from the beginning. ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.

HPMoR: Voldemort will kill Harry Potter and still do 'evil things' at the end of the story. ( 6% confidence )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.

HPMoR: Voldemort will not die, nor become 'good'(ie. ally with Harry), but he will become (seemingly permanently) too weak to do evil (ex.: he will be in jail, or in suspended animation, etc.). ( 15% confidence )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.

HPMoR: Voldemort will ally with Harry Potter (ex.: to fight death). ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.

HPMoR: Quirell has stolen the marauder's map from the weasley twins. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Thelvyn on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-02; judged right by player_03 on 2015-02-22.

HPMoR: Harry will find the room of requirement. ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Thelvyn on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-02; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.

HPMoR: Harry will finc the chamber of secrets. ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Thelvyn on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-02; judged wrong by timujin on 2015-04-15.

HPMoR: Dumbledor will die with the feeling of betrayal. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Thelvyn on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-02; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.

HPMoR: Harry will bring Hermione back to life. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Thelvyn on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-02; judged right by booradleytron on 2015-03-31.

HPMoR: Harry will try to take possession of the other deathly hallows ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Thelvyn on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-02; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.

HPMoR (up to ch. 98): Harry Potter will respect his contract/promise from ch.47 with Draco. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by solipsist on 2015-03-14.

HPMoR (up to ch. 98): Harry Potter has asked the Weasleys for some drugs. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by player_03 on 2016-03-09.

HPMoR (up to ch. 98): At some point, Harry Potter will use magic to directly modify his brain (ex. Memory Charm, False memory charm, etc.). ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.

HPMoR (up to ch. 98): Voldemort will die (permanently). ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-15.

HPMoR (up to 98): Harry Potter will never use the killing curse (aka the Avada Kedavra Curse). ( 95% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Unknowns on 2015-03-15.

HPMoR (up to 98): At some point in the story, cryonics will be mentioned. ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by nigr on 2016-03-07.

HPMoR (up to 98): Hermione's body was stolen from a future version of Harry Potter. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.

I will be able to easily slide an index finger between my wrist and my watch that I haven't worn since before I started my transition. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by ZLM on 2014-02-11; known on 2014-02-11; judged right by ZLM on 2014-02-11.

“Satoshi Nakamoto” collaborated with Nick Szabo to create Bitcoin. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ZLM on 2014-02-11; known on 2040-01-01.

I will be able to afford to sign up for cryonics by the time I'm 30. ( 95% confidence )

Created by ZLM on 2014-02-11; known on 2019-01-30.

I will figure out what being transgender means by my 26th birthday. ( 20% confidence )

Created by ZLM on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-30.

I will move to the silicon valley before I'm 30. ( 50% confidence )

Created by ZLM on 2014-02-11; known on 2019-01-30.

I will be alive on my 33rd birthday. ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by ZLM on 2014-02-11; known on 2022-01-30; judged wrong by God on 2022-04-27.

I will be alive on my 26th birthday. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by ZLM on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-30.

my sister will say something about the magazine I gave her ( 50% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-02-11; known on 2014-02-20; judged right by reesarose on 2014-02-21.

By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ( 54% confidence; 42 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by ZLM on 2014-02-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by lavalamp on 2014-08-21.

Someone will comment on this prediction and recommend me a podcast or audiobook that I don't know of, and I will listen to at least 2 episodes or chapters before 2 weeks. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-10; known on 2014-02-25; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-02-25.

Adina and Baaboo will have dinner with Maxine and me tonight. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Benquo on 2014-02-09; known on 2014-02-10; judged right by Benquo on 2014-02-14.

Correcting for education, IQ, income, religion, race, age, and some measure of health, rural people are more likely than urban people to commit the naturalistic fallacy. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Leo on 2014-02-09; known on 2024-02-09.

Elder Scrolls Online will sell over 10 million copies within a year of release (across all platforms), becoming the worlds largest MMORPG ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by lettergram on 2014-02-09; known on 2015-04-04; judged wrong by jasticE on 2015-04-19.

Canada will arrive first in the 2014 Olympics. (ie. number of gold medals) ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-09; known on 2014-02-24; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-02-24.

Someone without foot and with artificial legs will do under 10 seconds at the 100 meters sprint before 2041. ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-09; known on 2042-01-01.

Canada will win the 2014 paralympics. ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-09; known on 2014-03-17; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-03-17.

I will get to see my boyfriend Wednesday. ( 60% confidence )

Created by reesarose on 2014-02-09; known on 2014-02-20; judged wrong by reesarose on 2014-02-21.

Tomorrow I will eat breakfest before 9 a.m. ( 93% confidence )

Created by Amélie_Roy on 2014-02-08; known on 2014-02-08; judged right by Amélie_Roy on 2014-02-08.

I will leave here by 11 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by reubensandwich on 2014-02-08; known on 2014-02-08; judged right by reubensandwich on 2014-02-12.

I will leave here before 10. ( 40% confidence )

Created by reubensandwich on 2014-02-07; known on 2014-02-07; judged right by reubensandwich on 2014-02-12.

I will be cryonically frozen. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Amélie_Roy on 2014-02-07; known on 2200-10-31.

I am going to live for at least another 80 years ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Amélie_Roy on 2014-02-07; known on 2094-12-31.

I will have a girlfriend at some point in the next 365 days. ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2015-02-06; judged wrong by Mati on 2015-02-06.

I will go see my grandparents this weekend. ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2014-02-12; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-02-08.

There will have been modular smart phones on the market before 2020. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2020-01-03.

I will have visited the Cronics Institute in 2014. ( 34% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Mati on 2015-01-05.

I will have been in Vancouver in 2014. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Mati on 2015-01-05.

There will have been more than 1500 CI Members at some point before 2019. ( 68% confidence )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Mati on 2019-01-01.

In the United States of America, driverless cars will have been sold to the public and it will have been legal at some point to use them on highways before 2050. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2050-01-01.

There will be (physical) Google stores before 2020. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Mati on 2020-01-03.

Google will sell smart watches before 2016 ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-05.

Apple will sell smart glasses before 2020. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

Before 2030, more than 35% of US-Americans will have no religious identity (not counting babies). ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2030-01-01.

Rousey defeats McMann in UFC170 ( 95% confidence )

Created by mad on 2014-02-06; known on 2014-02-24; judged right by mad on 2014-02-23.

Rousey beats McMann by armbar in UFC170 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by mad on 2014-02-06; known on 2014-02-24; judged wrong by mad on 2014-02-23.

Rousey beats McMann by first round armbar in UFC 170 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by mad on 2014-02-06; known on 2014-02-24; judged wrong by mad on 2014-02-23.

Mount Holyoke will have a snow day tomorrow ( 10% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-05; known on 2014-02-06; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-06.

Denison will have a snow day tomorrow ( 1% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-05; known on 2014-02-06; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-06.

At least one of my sibling will make at least 20 predictions on this website before February 2015. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-05; known on 2015-02-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2015-02-01.

The government of Quebec will start using an open source operating system (instead of Windows) during the mandate of the next government. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-05; known on 2020-09-02; judged wrong by Mati on 2020-09-03.

There will be elections in the province of Quebec this year. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-05; known on 2015-01-02; judged right by Mati on 2014-03-10.

There will be a snow day at Mount Holyoke tomorrow. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-05; known on 2014-02-05; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-05.

There will be a snow day at Denison tomorrow. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-05; known on 2014-02-05; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-05.

A new movement will feature in at least one of the workouts that comprises this year's Crossfit Games Open ( 51% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2014-02-04; known on 2014-03-25; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2014-03-11.

I will be allowed to go to the IEEE conference by my parents. ( 50% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-04; known on 2014-02-06; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-04.

Sochi Olympics will not be obvious disaster (ie spectacular violence, protests that utterly overshadow events, or have to be stopped early) ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Vulture on 2014-02-04; known on 2014-02-23; judged right by Vulture on 2014-02-24.

[KILL la KILL] Ira Gamagoori will betray Kiryuin Satsuki, or join Matoi Ryuko's side, or both, by the end of the series ( 35% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Grognor on 2014-02-04; known on 2014-10-16; judged right by Grognor on 2014-02-22.

The speaker I'm listening to will bring up the fact that people fear public speaking more than death. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-03; known on 2014-02-04; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-03.

I will get to class before the girl I passed. ( 98% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-03; known on 2014-02-04; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-03.

Burpees will feature in at least one of the workouts that comprises this year's Crossfit Games Open ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2014-02-03; known on 2014-03-31; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2014-03-31.

I will do nothing serious this year about my amazing idea to revolutionize social media. ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by waveman on 2014-02-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-01-02.

scientists won't have the same technology in “back to the future” in 2015 ( 98% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jeredcaleb on 2014-02-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by reubensandwich on 2015-06-28.

minecraft will have a new update ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jeredcaleb on 2014-02-02; known on 2014-02-28.

Iran and the P5+1 powers will reach a long term nuclear deal ( 60% confidence )

Created by scrafty on 2014-02-02; known on 2014-06-01; judged wrong by scrafty on 2014-06-01.

I'll be back to normal weight by March ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by reesarose on 2014-02-01; known on 2014-02-28; judged wrong by reesarose on 2014-03-04.

NYRRB: I will keep all of my resolutions through the end of February. ( 70% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-01; known on 2014-03-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-03-01.

Google Helpouts is shut down within the next 5 years. ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by lettergram on 2014-02-01; known on 2019-02-02; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-02-13.

At least one person will be banned from #lesswrong in February 2014. (only valid for people who have never before been banned from the channel) ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Tenoke on 2014-02-01; known on 2015-03-01; judged right by Tenoke on 2014-02-01.

Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2016. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by waveman on 2014-02-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.

Statistics

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