PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I will correctly guess the result of every game in the 2014 NFL Postseason (based on guesses in the comments of this prediction). ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-04; known on 2014-02-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-05.

Green Bay will beat the San Francisco 49ers tomorrow. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-04; known on 2014-01-06; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-01-08.

[mredactedw] will get a 4.0 next semester. ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-04; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-05-24.

I will get a 4.0 next semester. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-04; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-05-24.

Bitcoin hits $10000 at some point during 2014 (top exchange on http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/currency/USD.html) ( 16% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2015-01-01.

Dogecoin will be worth more than 1000 Satoshis ($0.00755000) by June 2014 (At 3 Jan 2014 bitcoin prices) ( 15% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2014-01-03; known on 2014-06-17; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-06-17.

Dogecoin will be worth less than 40 Satoshis ($0.00036240) at June 2014. (At 3 Jan 2014 bitcoin prices) ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2014-01-03; known on 2014-06-17; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-06-17.

Pat Quinn wins the 2014 Illinois Gubernatorial election. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by adbge on 2014-01-02; known on 2014-11-05; judged wrong by adbge on 2014-11-05.

The One Million Dollar Paranormal Challenge prize goes unclaimed. ( 98% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by adbge on 2014-01-02; known on 2015-01-02; judged right by mad on 2015-01-03.

In one year, an oz of marijuana will cost less than $150 (after taxes) in Colorado. ( 50% confidence )

Created by adbge on 2014-01-02; known on 2015-01-02; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-07-01.

BitCoin is valued at $1,000 within the month ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lettergram on 2014-01-02; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by Tuxedage on 2014-01-06.

I'll receive strait A's next semester. ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lettergram on 2014-01-02; known on 2014-06-01; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-06-27.

DSM-5 Question. ( 67% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02; known on 2014-01-02; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.

I will make an A or higher in PWR. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-03-25; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-30.

I will make a B- or higher in CS110: Principles of Computer Systems. ( 92% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-03-25; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-30.

My father will beat my mother in a game of Stratego. ( 75% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.

A different cryptocurrency beats Bitcoin in market cap at some point during the year. ( 7% confidence; 31 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ygert on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.

Futures trading all done and in place with all the high priority strategies done by end September 2014 ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-09-30; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-09-30.

Share trading in place by eoy 2014 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-01-01.

I will have a complete futures and FX trading system in place by end 2Q 2014. This means finishing the FX code and enhancing my futures code to support individual contracts. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-12.

I will be able to do 10 sprints to the top of the hill near my house in 15 minutes including returns but not counting the last return. By end October. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-10-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-04-29.

I will be able to do 20 full range pull-ups by end 2014. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by waveman on 2014-07-12.

I will be able to do 12 full range pull-ups with hands at shoulder width by mid 2014. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-06-30; judged right by waveman on 2014-04-20.

I will be doing my 1.5km course with a 30kg back pack by end April 2014. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-04-30; judged right by waveman on 2014-03-28.

I will have finished studying classical physics (Langrangian and Hamiltonian) by end 2014. IE studied and done the exercises from an appropriate text book. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-01-01.

I will have finished the math prerequisites for third year physics by mid 2015. Specifically have studied and done the exercises from the differential equations, PDEs, fourier transforms and laplace transforms. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-07-02.

I will finish the equivalent of second year physics by end 3q 2014 Specifically I will have done the exercises from the special relativity, electromagnetism and thermal physics texts. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-09-30; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-11-02.

I will weight less than 65 kg by end 2014 Started at 77kg now 68kg ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2914-12-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-01-02.

I will weight less than 70kg by mid 2014 Currently 77k ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-06-30; judged right by waveman on 2014-06-09.

There will be a notable tragedy during new years celebrations somewhere in the world tonight ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

After Steve Ballmer Leaves Microsoft, the new stock price will nose dive. This will be because the incoming CEO will realize the mess he was left to clean up. By the end of 2014, the price will be around $30/share- (possibly – in the high $20's) ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by mastermind8189 on 2013-12-31; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.

Ireland will legalize Marijuana between 2021 and 2024 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2025-01-01.

Brazil will beat Argentina in the 2030 World Cup Final in Beonas Aires. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2030-07-31.

You know what's hip if you know the name Peter Singer in 2150. People know his name now (2013) but he will be a Descartes, a Newton come 2150. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2150-01-01.

The outbreak of a civil war in Bahrain between Summer and Autumn 2014 ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2014-10-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-11-04.

At least 90% of the developed world (probably more like 98%) will be consuming In-Vitro meat (they'll have a more popular name by then) instead of conventional meat by 2070. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2070-01-01.

Chelsea Manning will be be pardoned by the US government and undergo transgender surgery and become a popular advocate of free information in the US in the 2040s and 2050s ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2055-01-01.

Uganda will legalize Gay Marriage by 2130. Yes you read that right! It will probably occur in the 2110s or 2120s. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2130-01-01.

Neo-Luddist's will be the Al-Qaeda of the 2110's. ( 50% confidence )

Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2115-01-01.

Virtual Immersion Technology will open up personalized virtual world's, VI video games & most popularly virtual cities (owned by companies similar to Google) in the 22nd century ( 60% confidence )

Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2110-01-01.

An Anti-Specieist World by 2150. Animal Exploitation will be a thing of the past, old blatant discrimination no longer accepted and the reduction of wild animal suffering a real task. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2150-01-01.

The world will be fully directly democratic by 2170! The world will be self-governed by it's people, probably nationless (definitely in culture, society and economics) but not a global state ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2170-01-01.

Spotify will overtake iTunes as the main source of music distribution in the United States, United Kingdom and Ireland. ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by DillonNolan on 2013-12-31; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.

BBRY will double in value in 2014 to $14/share. John Chen will become a legendary CEO becoming known for his turnaround efforts. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by mastermind8189 on 2013-12-30; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.

Russia will have a military campaign against Chechen rebels to indicate a sign of strength & make a statement. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by WSykes on 2013-12-30; known on 2013-01-03.

My hat turns up at Rosanne's home ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Benquo on 2013-12-30; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Benquo on 2014-01-01.

A leak or source from inside the NSA indicates that a surveillance program forbidden after today by the Supreme Court, another federal court, or act of congress has continued with little to no disruption ( 66% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by tedks on 2013-12-29; known on 2018-12-29; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-14.

I will pass the computational neuroscience program on Coursera ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-12-27; known on 2014-03-07; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2014-08-22.

A virtual reality headset (Oculus Rift-esque) sells more than a million units within the next 5 years. ( 85% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by adbge on 2013-12-26; known on 2018-12-26; judged right by bendini on 2017-06-05.

Buffalo Bills beat the Miami Dolphins yesterday. ( 80% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-23; known on 2013-12-23; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-23.

Microsoft will continue extended support of Windows XP past the April 8, 2014 deadline. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Omid on 2013-12-23; known on 2014-04-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-04-10.

I will successfully complete the 750 Words monthly challenge for December ( 90% confidence )

Created by atroche on 2013-12-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by atroche on 2014-01-01.

I will write a working basic CLJS todo application before this Sunday 6am Pacific ( 98% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-21; known on 2013-12-23; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-22.

Cannabis will be legal in 8 different states. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by spund on 2013-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2014-04-01.

cryptsy will stop all withdrawals for at least 24 hours, before 2014 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.

By 2015-01-01, my parents will get a cat. ( 20% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-12-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-10.

“Bitcoin will trade for under $10 a share by the first half of 2014.” — Mark T. Williams (http://www.businessinsider.com/williams-bitcoin-meltdown-10-2013-12) ( 5% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by lavalamp on 2013-12-18; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-07-01.

I will be in the process of deleting my Facebook account before the end of 2013, and I will not use Facebook during 2014. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-10-12.

On the HBWI? scale, the event will score in the interval [0,2.5], and I will reach Threshold 1 (see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/22504). ( 13% confidence )