Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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http://www.rememberthe13th.com/ NASA has made a historic discovery that will shake the entire planet. This announcement will be released to the media on November 13th, 2013. It will be a day to remember and One for the history books. Nothing world sha ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mimosomal on 2013-10-04; known on 2013-11-13; judged wrong by procran on 2013-11-13.
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I will see a cat before I go to sleep (after the current time of 2PM). ( 87% confidence )
Created by alexaltair on 2013-10-03; known on 2013-10-04; judged right by alexaltair on 2013-10-04.
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I will meet with Dan about research today before 7pm ( 90% confidence )
Created by critch on 2013-10-03; known on 2013-10-04; judged right by critch on 2013-10-04.
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Windows phone quarterly sales as a percentage of smartphones sold will eclipse iphone by 4th quarter 2015 ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by henchman21 on 2013-10-03; known on 2016-02-15; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-15.
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I will spend at least 5 minutes per day reviewing Anki decks for the remainder of October. ( 60% confidence )
Created by tylercurtis on 2013-10-03; known on 2013-11-01; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2013-11-04.
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I will make at least 100 public predictions on PredictionBook in 2014 (excluding predictions regarding my usage of PredictionBook). ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by tylercurtis on 2013-10-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2015-01-05.
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I will make at least ten public predictions on PredictionBook in the month of November (excluding predictions regarding my usage of PredictionBook). ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by tylercurtis on 2013-10-03; known on 2013-12-01; judged wrong by dk on 2014-03-23.
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I will make at least ten public predictions on PredictionBook in the month of October (excluding predictions regarding my usage of PredictionBook). ( 80% confidence )
Created by tylercurtis on 2013-10-03; known on 2013-11-01; judged right by tylercurtis on 2013-10-15.
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The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, or USA Today will publish an article concerning Jonathan Foster's murder before 2014. ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-10-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-09-29.
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US govt will not default on its debt before Mar 1, 2014 ( 96% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-10-03; known on 2014-03-01; judged right by scrafty on 2014-03-04.
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SR: DPR will not be found guilty on charges of money laundering (or conspiracy to commit money laundering). ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-10-03; known on 2015-10-03; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-06-11.
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SR: Ross Ulbricht will not be found guilty on charges of narcotics trafficking (or conspiracy). ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-10-03; known on 2015-10-03; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-06-11.
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SR: DPR/Ross Ulbricht will not be found guilty on charges of computer hacking (or conspiracy). ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tedks on 2013-10-03; known on 2015-10-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-02-04.
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Ross William Ulbricht will not be found guilty of any charges, whether through acquittal, or charges not being brought, or any other reason. ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-10-02; known on 2015-10-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-02-04.
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SR: Ross Ulbricht charges re: “conspiring to murder” will turn out not to be true ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-10-02; known on 2014-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-12-01.
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Someone I was just sitting with who left will be in another room I'm about to go visit. ( 5% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-02; known on 2013-10-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-02.
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Mark Cuban will lose his insider trading case ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-10-02; known on 2014-03-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-14.
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Republicans to gain control of the Senate at the next midterm election. ( 42% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-02; known on 2015-01-05; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-05.
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Democrats to gain control of the House at the next midterm election. ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-02; known on 2015-01-05; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-05.
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Republicans to have fewer seats in the House after the midterm election than they currently have (233). ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-02; known on 2015-01-05; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-05.
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Government shutdown to end by October 25 ( 71% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-01; known on 2013-10-25; judged right by nshepperd on 2013-10-17.
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I will go to jail ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2013-09-30; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Grognor on 2013-12-30.
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The New England Patriots will win their September 29, 2013 game against the Atlanta Falcons. ( 80% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-09-30; known on 2013-09-30; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-09-30.
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The bay12 wormverse rp will start not less than 4 days from now ( 78% confidence )
Created by Flipnash on 2013-09-30; known on 2013-10-04; judged right by Flipnash on 2013-10-07.
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US government shutdown will occur. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-09-29; known on 2013-10-03; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-01.
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The Buffalo Bills will win their September 29, 2013 game against the Baltimore Ravens. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-09-29; known on 2013-09-29; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-09-29.
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MtG: There will be at least one reference to homosexuality per block in the next four blocks. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-28; known on 2019-05-16; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2019-05-16.
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By January 1, the “Sleepless in Austin” guy will be revealed as a troll. ( 25% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-09-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-01.
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Patrick prefers mild curries to hot ones. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Leo on 2013-09-26; known on 2013-09-26; judged wrong by Leo on 2013-09-26.
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“Warlords of Khanar” will be the name of the MTG block codenamed “Huey”, “Dewey” and “Louie”, and/or one of the sets of that block. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-25; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by LogicalOxymoron on 2014-11-22.
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In the 2016 US presidential election, dealing with the NSA etc. will not be ignored and will be a serious debate issue, on par with the economy or abortion. ( 39% confidence; 12 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-25; known on 2016-11-02; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-11-09.
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Angela Merkel will serve another term as chancellor of Germany ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by phreeza on 2013-09-23; known on 2013-10-23; judged right by phreeza on 2013-12-31.
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The next german ruling coalition will be a grand coalition between CDU and SPD ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by phreeza on 2013-09-23; known on 2013-10-23; judged right by phreeza on 2013-12-31.
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the special wonderful thing will happen ( 3% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Grognor on 2013-09-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-01-01.
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There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023. ( 66% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by qap on 2013-09-21; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by elecnix on 2024-01-01.
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Patrick likes cheddar. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2013-09-21; known on 2013-09-21; judged wrong by Leo on 2013-09-21.
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The CFAR staff will give me their approval to move forward with the CLP Program in a form substantially similar to what I propose today. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by glennonymous on 2013-09-20; known on 2013-09-30; judged wrong by glennonymous on 2013-10-24.
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The US will have a government shutdown sometime before June 2014. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-09-20; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-01.
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“I make the falsifiable prediction that during Pope Francis's tenure the Catholic Church will shrink, its proportional membership will diminish and its contributions per member will drop.” — EY (on Facebook) ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-20; known on 2023-09-20.
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Democratic candidate to win 2016 presidential election by greater margin than Obama did in 2012. ( 34% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-09-20; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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CIV PBF 88 : Arabia wins ( 60% confidence )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-09-18; known on 2013-10-10; judged right by Osuniev on 2014-04-19.
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At least one of the Invasion dragons (Crosis, Darigaaz, Dromar, Rith, Treva) will be reprinted in the Commander 2013 decks. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-18; known on 2013-10-15; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-18.
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At least one of the Elder Dragon Legends (Nicol Bolas, Arcades Sabboth, Chromium, Palladia-Mors, Vaevictis Asmadi) will be reprinted in the Commander 2013 decks. ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-18; known on 2013-10-15; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-18.
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The Turning will have a Rotten Tomatoes rating >= 75% ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by atroche on 2013-09-18; known on 2013-10-16; judged right by atroche on 2013-10-16.
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Fremantle will win the 2013 AFL Grand Final ( 32% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by atroche on 2013-09-18; known on 2013-09-28; judged right by atroche on 2013-11-13.
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Geelong will win the 2013 AFL Grand Final ( 21% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by atroche on 2013-09-18; known on 2013-09-28; judged right by atroche on 2013-11-13.
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Hawthorn will win the 2013 AFL Grand Final ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by atroche on 2013-09-18; known on 2013-09-28; judged right by atroche on 2013-11-13.
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Grand Theft Auto 5 to be released on PC before April 2014 ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Omid on 2013-09-18; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by wraith on 2014-05-28.
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There will be at least one Mono Black Control (MBC) deck among the Pro Tour Theros Top 8 decks. ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-17; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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HP MoR: James Potter, Sirius Black, and Peter Pettigrew were Animagi. ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by 75th on 2013-09-17; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-10.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: a Theros rare/mythic that I haven't listed in my other predictions (predictionbook.com/predictions/21290 to 21335) ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Tymaret, the Murder King ( 3% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Prophet of Kruphix ( 3% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Swan Song ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Arbor Colossus ( 3% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Reaper of the Wilds ( 3% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Whip of Erebos ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Agent of the Fates ( 3% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Artisan of Forms ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Reverent Hunter ( 3% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Bow of Nylea ( 3% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Hammer of Purphoros ( 3% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Daxos of Meletis ( 5% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Anax and Cymede ( 5% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Nylea, God of the Hunt ( 5% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Soldier of the Pantheon ( 5% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver ( 7% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Mistcutter Hydra ( 7% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Firedrinker Satyr ( 7% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Master of Waves ( 7% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Erebos, God of the Dead ( 10% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Spear of Heliod ( 10% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Gift of Immortality ( 10% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Purphoros, God of the Forge ( 15% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Fleecemane Lion ( 15% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Boon Satyr ( 15% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Prognostic Sphinx ( 15% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Curse of the Swine ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by prototrout on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Elspeth, Sun's Champion ( 15% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Steam Augury ( 20% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Polukranos, World Eater ( 20% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Heliod, God of the Sun ( 20% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Sylvan Caryatid ( 30% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Fabled Hero ( 30% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Thassa, God of the Sea ( 30% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Temple of Triumph ( 40% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Temple of Silence ( 40% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Temple of Mystery ( 40% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Temple of Abandon ( 40% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Hero's Downfall ( 50% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Stormbreath Dragon ( 50% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Temple of Deceit ( 50% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Chained to the Rocks ( 65% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Xenagos, the Reveler ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by prototrout on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Anger of the Gods ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by prototrout on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Thoughtseize ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by prototrout on 2013-10-13.
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In the next arc Taylor will have a second trigger event.[worm web serial] ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Flipnash on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-27; judged wrong by Flipnash on 2013-10-28.
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Human drivers will be illegal on some Australian roads by 2030 ( 40% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2013-09-14; known on 2030-01-01.
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Human drivers will be illegal on some USA roads by 2030 ( 44% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2013-09-14; known on 2030-01-01.