PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-21; known on 2024-07-21.

Luke turns, or has turned, to the Dark Side in Star Wars episode 7. ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by HonoreDB on 2014-07-20; known on 2015-12-18; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-26.

I will get one of my top four choices of freshman writing seminar. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by azax1 on 2014-07-20; known on 2014-08-29; judged right by azax1 on 2014-08-04.

I will get one of my top three choices of freshman writing seminar. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by azax1 on 2014-07-20; known on 2014-08-29; judged right by azax1 on 2014-08-04.

I will get one of my top two choices of freshman writing seminar. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by azax1 on 2014-07-20; known on 2014-08-29; judged right by azax1 on 2014-08-04.

I will get my top choice for freshman writing seminar. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by azax1 on 2014-07-20; known on 2014-08-29; judged wrong by azax1 on 2014-08-04.

We will lose one of our past Presidents or First Lady (USA) this year after a prolonged illness. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2015-01-02.

A discovery that diseases can be transmitted or transferred by pure thought from one location to another will be found in 2014. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2015-08-03.

Edward Snowden to be awarded the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2014-10-10; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-10-11.

Vladimir Putin to be awarded the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize ( 1% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2014-10-10; judged wrong by qznc on 2014-10-10.

Alberto Contador to win the Tour de France 2014 ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2014-07-27; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-07-27.

Price of Bitcoin end of 2014 to be more than $600 ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2015-01-01.

Chris will officially incorporate a company (with or without Nami) by September 1st, 2015. ( 55% confidence )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-07-18; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2015-10-27.

I will weigh at least 140 pounds by the end of 2014 ( 30% confidence )

Created by dgray on 2014-07-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by dgray on 2015-01-10.

I will weigh at least 135 pounds by the end of 2014 ( 70% confidence )

Created by dgray on 2014-07-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by dgray on 2015-01-10.

I will have a complete futures and FX trading system in place by end 3Q 2014. This means finishing the FX code and enhancing my futures code to support individual contracts. ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by waveman on 2014-07-16; known on 2014-10-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-10-01.

Bitcoin will be traded for >$1000 within 2014 ( 38% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by qznc on 2014-07-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

Josh will be on time ( 55% confidence )

Created by Ixiel on 2014-07-14; known on 2014-07-14; judged wrong by Ixiel on 2014-07-14.

It is not going to rain tonight ( 85% confidence )

Created by Ixiel on 2014-07-14; known on 2014-07-14; judged right by Ixiel on 2014-07-15.

Sara will feel “normal” from Sept 1 to Sept 7 ( 85% confidence )

Created by Silver on 2014-07-14; known on 2014-09-08; judged right by Silver on 2014-08-12.

I'll get RCJ their numbers before close of business Wednesday. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Matt on 2014-07-14; known on 2014-07-16; judged wrong by Matt on 2014-07-16.

The Kingdom of North Sudan will be officially recognized by the African Union before 2015. ( 1% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-13; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-14.

Germany will defeat Argentina in their World Cup game today. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-13; known on 2014-07-14; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-13.

Bryan Caplan will win his bet on climate statistics with Yoram Bauman. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-12; known on 2030-01-01.

waveman will have a complete futures and FX trading system in place by end 3Q 2014. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-12; known on 2014-10-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-10-01.

I will get my wanikani review queue down to 0 any time before July 14 2014 11am Pacific ( 100% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-07-12; known on 2014-07-14; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-07-14.

I will not watch any of The Americans until July 26 2014 ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-07-12; known on 2014-07-26; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-07-26.

“In the next 20 years driverless cars will be a reality, there won't be any cab drivers.” Russ Roberts ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-07-11; known on 2034-01-01.

Netherlands will qualify for the final ( 60% confidence )

Created by dgray on 2014-07-09; known on 2014-07-10; judged wrong by etarletons on 2014-07-10.

A wsop bracket winner makes the November 9. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by cdf12345 on 2014-07-08; known on 2014-08-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-07-16.

Brazil will win the 2014 world cup ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by cdf12345 on 2014-07-08; known on 2014-07-14; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-07-09.

I will get a tax refund this year ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by mad on 2014-07-08; known on 2014-12-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-07-29.

Friend ___ moves out of his apartment by the end of August ( 35% confidence )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-05; known on 2014-08-31; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-08-31.

Boss will give me a plan to get me to mgmt by EoCY. ( 30% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-07-03; known on 2014-07-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-07-03.

Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy will not be tried before the end of 2015, for the affair he has been indicted today. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by clemux on 2014-07-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-10.

Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy will not be tried before the end of the year, for the affair he has been indicted today. ( 80% confidence )

Created by clemux on 2014-07-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by clemux on 2015-01-16.

This prediction will not post successfully. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by mavant on 2014-06-30; known on 2014-06-30; judged wrong by mavant on 2014-06-30.

Predictionbook allows decimal percentages in predictions. ( 9% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by mavant on 2014-06-30; known on 2014-06-30; judged wrong by mavant on 2014-06-30.

I will clean my car out by next saturday night ( 30% confidence )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-29; known on 2014-07-05; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-07-05.

I will have 35 subscribers to my mailing list by August 1, 2014. Current count is 21, on June 28. Website: http://austingwalters.com ( 80% confidence )

Created by lettergram on 2014-06-28; known on 2014-08-02; judged right by lettergram on 2014-10-05.

I'll go on the Hamptons trip with Star and Peter, serving as a designated driver. ( 20% confidence )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-28; known on 2014-07-04; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-07-04.

My step-sister's marriage will still be intact (not separated or divorced or remarried) five years from now. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-27; known on 2019-06-27; judged right by stepan on 2020-03-04.

A close friend or relative will commit suicide within the next 2 years ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-27; known on 2016-06-27; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2019-01-08.

I will receive straight A's in Fall 2014: CS Major – GPA 3.25 Course Load: 14 credits Senior Thesis (CS 499) – 3 credits Fundamental Algorithms (CS 473) – 3 credits Probability in Computer Science (CS 498) – 3 credits Machine Learning and Signal ( 60% confidence )

Created by lettergram on 2014-06-27; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by lettergram on 2015-03-17.

Alex will tell me that I will be promoted in December, conditional upon fulfilling Kiran's requests. ( 30% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-25; known on 2014-06-26; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-25.

Iraq splits into 3, (either 3 distinct states or a single federal government of 3 autonomous regions), before 2020 ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

Iraq splits into 3, (either 3 distinct states or a single federal government of 3 autonomous regions), before 2016 ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.

“Over the next two decades scholarly research will show that the treatment effect of homeschooling is either neutral or positive relative to government-operated schools” – Art Carden ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-24; known on 2033-04-01.

Russia will gain de facto control of some portion of any of the Baltic states and hold it for more than a week before the end of the year. ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-01-02.

“The average European unemployment rate for 2009-2018 (i.e., the next decade) will be at least 1% higher than U.S. unemployment rate.” Bryan Caplan ( 73% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.

I will finish Chapter 3 of Hartl's Rails Tutorial tomorrow before midnight. ( 90% confidence )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-21; known on 2014-06-22; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-06-23.

I will take part in the play saturday. ( 90% confidence )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-20; known on 2014-06-22; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-06-22.

The European Union will start raising Union-level taxes (similar to US' federal taxation) by 2030 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-19; known on 2031-01-01.

Bids on NASDAQ:PCLN will reach at least $1250 on day after Q2 earnings release. ( 60% confidence )

Created by mortehu on 2014-06-19; known on 2014-08-05; judged right by mortehu on 2014-08-11.

My website austingwalters.com will have 18 email subscribers by July 15 (currently at 10) ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by lettergram on 2014-06-19; known on 2014-07-15; judged right by lettergram on 2014-06-27.

“no matter how many scare headlines you read, ISIS will never take Baghdad” – The war nerd. ( 77% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.

There will be fewer than 20 wagers on this prediction two weeks from today. ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-18; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-07-01.

My laptop will still be properly functional and in use six months from now. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-17; known on 2014-12-18; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-12-19.

Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black. ( 13% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-17; known on 2024-06-16.

Duck Enlightenment (@jokeocracy) will be unbanned from twitter ( 24% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Grognor on 2014-06-15; known on 2014-12-14; judged right by Grognor on 2014-06-20.

I will lose at least 18lbs in the six months after starting the Shangri-La Diet, and maintain the diet for that duration, defined as taking at least 100kcal of near-tasteless calories on at least an average of four days each week. ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2014-06-14; known on 2014-12-14; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2015-02-28.

I will still be consuming a near-tasteless source of calories at least once every three days six months after starting trying the Shangri-La Diet. ( 6% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2014-06-14; known on 2014-12-14; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2015-02-28.

I will lose at least three pounds in the first three weeks of attempting the Shangri-La Diet. ( 20% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2014-06-14; known on 2014-07-07; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2014-07-15.

I will get out of work by 2:15pm today ( 80% confidence )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-13; known on 2014-06-13; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-06-15.

I will get a job offer from the company I interviewed at Monday ( 60% confidence )

Created by glennonymous on 2014-06-12; known on 2014-07-07; judged wrong by glennonymous on 2014-07-07.

Five years from today, at least one team in the 2014 YEI fellowship will be worth $100 million or more. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-12; known on 2019-06-12; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2019-06-14.

At least one company in the 2014 YEI fellowship will raise $1 million within the next year. ( 60% confidence )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-12; known on 2015-06-12; judged right by aarongertler on 2015-06-12.

The title of the next song on my playlist will not contain the word “Ghost” or “Ghosts” ( 65% confidence )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-12; known on 2014-06-13; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-06-12.

The title of the next song on my playlist will not contain the word “Ghost” or “Ghosts” (part 3) ( 60% confidence )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-12; known on 2014-06-13; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-06-12.

The title of the next song on my playlist will not contain the word “Ghost” or “Ghosts” ( 50% confidence )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-12; known on 2014-06-13; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-06-12.

The next song in alphabetical order after “Ghost”, by Evol Intent, will not have the word “Ghost” or “Ghosts” in the title. ( 75% confidence )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-12; known on 2014-06-12; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-06-12.

3d printers in houses ( 50% confidence )

Created by abdullahmarzouk on 2014-06-11; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

Pyschbuddying posts: 'Lemme know in comments' gets a witty 'No' or similar. ( 10% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-06-11; known on 2014-06-19; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-04.

I will get a call tomorrow, from anyone. ( 18% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-11; known on 2014-06-12; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-06-12.

I will give myself a two on at least one of my journals. ( 80% confidence )

Created by cobalt on 2014-06-10; known on 2014-06-17; judged right by cobalt on 2014-06-14.

Junker will be President of the European Commission within 2 months. ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-10; known on 2014-08-10; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-07-15.

A randomly chosen CFAR workshop participant has bare feet at 6:40PM. ( 60% confidence )

Created by etarletons on 2014-06-09; known on 2014-06-08; judged right by etarletons on 2014-06-09.

I will turn in my English essay on time ( 75% confidence )

Created by cobalt on 2014-06-09; known on 2014-06-11; judged right by cobalt on 2014-06-10.

My ia remediation is successful on the first try. ( 90% confidence )

Created by cobalt on 2014-06-08; known on 2014-06-22; judged right by cobalt on 2014-06-30.

A randomly chosen CFAR workshop participant can remember another randomly chosen participant's name. ( 75% confidence )

Created by etarletons on 2014-06-08; known on 2014-06-09; judged right by etarletons on 2014-06-09.

My program will work as I expect it to this time. ( 60% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-08; known on 2014-06-08; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-08.

My program will work as I expect it to. ( 65% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-08; known on 2014-06-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-08.

I will get 90% or above on next week's neurobio quiz ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-08; known on 2014-06-14; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-06-15.

A randomly chosen CFAR workshop participant has written a complete work of fiction. ( 45% confidence )

Created by etarletons on 2014-06-07; known on 2014-06-07; judged wrong by etarletons on 2014-06-08.

Peter will eat dinner with his parents tonight. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-06-07; known on 2014-06-08; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2014-06-09.

Skype translator will be a huge success ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by influnza on 2014-06-07; known on 2016-06-07.

I will want to go back to confessional. ( 75% confidence )

Created by cobalt on 2014-06-07; known on 2014-06-14; judged right by cobalt on 2014-06-07.

A randomly chosen CFAR workshop participant is married. ( 15% confidence )

Created by etarletons on 2014-06-07; known on 2014-06-06; judged wrong by etarletons on 2014-06-07.

I will go to confessional tomorrow. ( 85% confidence )

Created by cobalt on 2014-06-07; known on 2014-06-08; judged right by cobalt on 2014-06-07.

One randomly selected CFAR workshop participant will hold a non-USA citizenship ( 25% confidence )

Created by etarletons on 2014-06-06; known on 2014-06-13; judged right by etarletons on 2014-06-07.

The government following the next UK election will not be a formal coalition. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-06; known on 2015-05-10; judged right by kuudes on 2015-05-08.

Nick Clegg will remain in the cabinet until the next general election. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-06; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-05.

Labour will win the most seats in the next UK general election. ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-06; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.

I will get an a or a- in government for the quarter ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by cobalt on 2014-06-06; known on 2014-07-06; judged wrong by cobalt on 2014-06-30.

I will not turn in my IA remediation until after the weekend. ( 55% confidence )

Created by cobalt on 2014-06-05; known on 2014-06-12; judged right by cobalt on 2014-06-10.

Pops: “Someone will die on the concert” (The Rolling Stones Tel-Aviv 2014 concert) ( 6% confidence )

Created by Neznans on 2014-06-04; known on 2014-06-11; judged wrong by Neznans on 2014-06-09.

At least one rather major online (or print) media outlet would cover the miserable hotness of the June 4th Rolling Stones concert in Israel with an article titled using a bad pun regarding TRS and the weather. ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Neznans on 2014-06-04; known on 2014-06-11; judged right by Neznans on 2014-06-09.

At least one rather major online (or print) media outlet would cover the miserable hotness of the June 4th Rolling Stones concert in Israel. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Neznans on 2014-06-04; known on 2014-06-11; judged right by Neznans on 2014-06-09.

I will get a pass advanced on my chemistry sol. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by cobalt on 2014-06-03; known on 2014-06-04; judged right by cobalt on 2014-06-06.

Dr Bob says: If you invest at Apple in June of 2014 right after the split at roughly $90/share then hold those shares and sell on Dec 31, 2016 you will show a loss. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by kjaques on 2014-06-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kjaques on 2017-01-01.

Statistics

Recent Predictions