PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I wash the towel by the midnight starting Sunday 28th ( 65% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25; known on 2014-09-29; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-01.

I would have to rejig my unit choices ( 60% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25; known on 2014-09-26; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25.

Nick Bostrom replies to my comment on his Reddit AMA ( 20% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25; known on 2014-09-26; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25.

UKIP wins the Heywood and Middleton by-election ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-24; known on 2014-10-09; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-10-10.

The owner of emmayouarenext.com will release nude photos of Emma Watson when the countdown expires. ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Taymon on 2014-09-23; known on 2014-09-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06.

His keys were somewhere trivial ( 90% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-23; known on 2014-09-23; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-23.

The fanfiction “Hogwarts School of Prayer and Miracles” will be revealed as satire/parody within one year. ( 90% confidence )

Created by sigmaleph on 2014-09-23; known on 2015-09-23.

I will have finished the second season of Orphan Black by next Monday. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Calien on 2014-09-22; known on 2014-09-29; judged right by Calien on 2014-10-02.

I will take at least 24 hours to read the responses to my latest forum post. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Calien on 2014-09-22; known on 2014-09-24; judged right by Calien on 2014-10-02.

The Witness will be released and playable by the public on at least one platform before 2015 ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-09-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

My ASUS X99 motherboard will burn out some component or otherwise suffer electrically-induced damaged, in the first 30 days of operation ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-09-21; known on 2014-11-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-10-27.

I will have reached a streak of at least 14 on my HabitRPG daily for making predictions on predictionbook at least once by end of October. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by tylercurtis on 2014-09-21; known on 2014-11-01; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-11-02.

I will catch up on my Mnemosyne reviews by the end of September. ( 5% confidence )

Created by tylercurtis on 2014-09-21; known on 2014-10-01; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-10-08.

6 beats 12 http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/l0n/youre_entitled_to_everyones_opinion/bcus ( 85% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20; known on 2014-09-20; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20.

11 beats 5 http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/l0n/youre_entitled_to_everyones_opinion/bcus ( 55% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20; known on 2014-09-20; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20.

10 beats 4 http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/l0n/youre_entitled_to_everyones_opinion/bcus ( 60% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20; known on 2014-09-20; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20.

3 beats 9 http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/l0n/youre_entitled_to_everyones_opinion/bcus ( 67% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20; known on 2014-09-20; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20.

8 beats 2 http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/l0n/youre_entitled_to_everyones_opinion/bcus ( 67% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20; known on 2014-09-20; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20.

7 beats 2 http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/l0n/youre_entitled_to_everyones_opinion/bcus ( 67% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20; known on 2014-09-20; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20.

Venezuela will undergo sovereign default before 2016. ( 8% confidence; 60 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-09-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.

Scotland will vote Yes on independence with a margin of less than 5%. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by chalicier on 2014-09-18; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by chalicier on 2014-09-19.

NO will win the Scottish Referendum by 5% ±3% ( 68% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by thostian on 2014-09-16; known on 2014-09-14; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.

Our old hot sauce was not Durkee brand. ( 75% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-09-16; known on 2014-09-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-09-16.

SMR's first product will launch sometime between October 2014, and October, 2015 ( 70% confidence )

Created by MattG on 2014-09-16; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by MattG on 2015-10-31.

The SMR Email list will be somewhere between 300 and 1000 subscribers on January 1st 2015 ( 90% confidence )

Created by MattG on 2014-09-16; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by MattG on 2015-01-30.

The SMR email list will reach 300 subscribers between September 16th 2014 and January 30th, 2015 ( 90% confidence )

Created by MattG on 2014-09-16; known on 2015-01-30; judged right by MattG on 2015-01-30.

Test driven design has started to gain traction in building design ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2014-09-16; known on 2019-09-16; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2019-09-16.

Zendikar fetchlands are reprinted in “Louie” set. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Serge on 2014-09-15; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by Serge on 2015-03-30.

I start polyphasic sleeping successfully. ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Mike on 2014-09-15; known on 2015-01-31; judged wrong by Mike on 2015-01-14.

A fight breaks out at my 20 year high school reunion over something that happened 20 years ago. ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Mike on 2014-09-15; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Mike on 2014-10-19.

My son will have his first tooth by the end of September. ( 20% confidence )

Created by Mike on 2014-09-15; known on 2014-09-30; judged wrong by Mike on 2014-09-30.

I will have no mortgage by the end of April 2015. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Mike on 2014-09-15; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by Mike on 2015-03-31.

I finish all five items on my “To Do Today” list tomorrow. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Mike on 2014-09-15; known on 2014-09-16; judged right by Mike on 2014-09-16.

Australia will see its first domestic, large scale “terror” attack within six months of becoming involved in the ISIS campaign. ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Mike on 2014-09-15; known on 2015-03-31; judged wrong by Mike on 2015-03-31.

Decommissioning of extract will be completed without issue. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Mike on 2014-09-15; known on 2014-09-18; judged right by Mike on 2014-09-19.

Bellroy and Trike will move from their West Melbourne office to the new Fitzroy office on 26th Sept. ( 91% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Lina on 2014-09-15; known on 2014-09-27; judged right by nadia on 2014-09-29.

Ebola outbreak kills more than 30000 people by the end of the year ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by phreeza on 2014-09-15; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.

“The [ebola] case burden could gain an additional 77,181 to 277,124 cases by the end of 2014.” – Wired ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by adbge on 2014-09-15; known on 2015-02-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-12.

The scottish referendum vote will be >60% yes ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by scav on 2014-09-14; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.

The scottish referendum vote will be 50-60% yes ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by scav on 2014-09-14; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.

The scottish referendum vote will be less than 50% yes ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by scav on 2014-09-14; known on 2014-09-19; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.

The margin of victory in the scottish referendum is less than 1%. ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-13; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.

I make at least $20 bucks profit at the swamp meet tomorrow. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-09-13; known on 2014-09-14; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-09-14.

I go to swamp meet sunday ( 50% confidence )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-09-13; known on 2014-09-15; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-09-15.

At least 20 people, total, will come to the next 2 YEA meetings. ( 40% confidence )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-09-12; known on 2014-09-14; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-09-14.

Alex Sammond still the leader of the SNP at the end of the year ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-10; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-11-14.

Cameron is still the leader of the Conservatives at the end of the year. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-10; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-01-02.

A peace treaty ends the arab-isreali conflict before 2050 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-08; known on 2050-01-01.

A peace treaty ends the arab-israeli conflict before 2030. ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-08; known on 2030-01-01.

A peace treaty ends the arab-israeli conflict before 2018 ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-08; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.

An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100. ( 57% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by nshepperd on 2014-09-08; known on 2100-01-01.

Fracking will be banned in the United States by 2024 ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by lisalister on 2014-09-07; known on 2024-01-01.

Exalted 3rd Edition will not be published before January 1st 2015. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by chalicier on 2014-09-06; known on 2015-01-01.

[MtG] The “manlands” from Worldwake will be reprinted in Khans of Tarkir. ( 85% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by Roxolan on 2014-09-06; known on 2014-09-26; judged wrong by Serge on 2014-09-15.

Bill Simmons: Sports gambling legal in the US by 2020 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2014-09-06; known on 2020-12-31.

I will make at least 5 new Facebook friends before Monday. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Mati on 2014-09-02; known on 2014-09-08; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-09-08.

TSM wins at least one game in the 2014 Summer NA LCS Championship match. ( 30% confidence )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2014-09-02; known on 2014-09-02; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2014-09-02.

Cloud 9 wins 2014 NA LCS Summer Finals. ( 90% confidence )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2014-09-02; known on 2014-09-02; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2014-09-02.

Islamic terrorist attack in the UK kills at least one this month. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-29; known on 2014-09-29; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-29.

I will come to Moscow LW Meetup on 2014-08-31. ( 50% confidence )

Created by rationalnoodles on 2014-08-29; known on 2014-08-31; judged right by rationalnoodles on 2014-08-31.

RUB/USD will reach 39/1 (according to CBR) at least once before 2015. ( 40% confidence )

Created by rationalnoodles on 2014-08-29; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rationalnoodles on 2014-09-29.

RUB/USD will reach 38/1 (according to CBR) at least once before 2015. ( 70% confidence )

Created by rationalnoodles on 2014-08-29; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rationalnoodles on 2014-09-16.

UKIP wins Clacton by-election ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-28; known on 2014-10-10; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-10-10.

The current truce between Israel and Hamas will hold until at least January 15, 2015 ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-08-27; known on 2015-01-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-15.

Self-driving cars will replace human drivers on public road in at least one country before 2024. ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by TeMPOraL on 2014-08-24; known on 2023-12-31.

What color underwear random person is wearing. 95% white, black, pink, nude/brown, red, green, blue/navy, purple, orange, multicolor. ( 95% confidence )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23; known on 2014-08-23; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23.

Out of 10 asked at the reunion, 0-9 people know my name without prompting. (mistyped) ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23; known on 2014-08-24; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23.

Out of 10 asked at the reunion, 2-3 people knowing my name without prompting. ( 10% confidence )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23; known on 2014-08-23; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23.

Will be moved to Bay Area in the next 3 months ( 33% confidence )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23; known on 2014-11-23; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-11-24.

I will get 5+ alumni messages by the end of this week (currently have 4) ( 40% confidence )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23; known on 2014-08-24; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-08-24.

My classmates will be even cooler IRL. ( 60% confidence )

Created by rationalnoodles on 2014-08-23; known on 2014-09-09; judged right by rationalnoodles on 2014-09-28.

Bruce Willis will have more than 5 minutes of screentime in Sin City: A Dame to Kill For ( 20% confidence )

Created by Grognor on 2014-08-21; known on 2014-11-29; judged wrong by Grognor on 2015-01-03.

Harrison Ford will have more than 5 minutes of screentime in The Expendables 3 ( 70% confidence )

Created by Grognor on 2014-08-21; known on 2014-11-28.

Yale Effective Altruists will have at least ten active, non-graduating members at the end of this school year. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-08-20; known on 2015-05-15; judged right by aarongertler on 2015-06-21.

The Yale Record will generate at least $7000 in revenue this year (including donations) ( 62% confidence )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-08-20; known on 2015-05-31; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2015-06-21.

I will still be using the same physical new macbook pro that I just bought on August 20, 2018, contingent on still being in my school program ( 70% confidence )

Created by Porejide on 2014-08-20; known on 2018-08-20.

By the end of this year, I will know 50 Canberrans who read LessWrong or attend meetups regularly. (I will have personally spoken to and remember names and faces) ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Calien on 2014-08-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by Calien on 2015-01-06.

Eliezer will state that he has finished writing HPMOR by the end of 2014. ( 33% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Calien on 2014-08-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.

I will publish the fanfic I am currently working on to either ff.net or Archive of Our Own by the end of the year. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Calien on 2014-08-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-04.

I will hand in every assignment between now and the mid semester break on time. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Calien on 2014-08-19; known on 2014-09-05; judged right by Calien on 2014-09-05.

The Legend of Korra will not be cancelled before Book 4 is finished. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Calien on 2014-08-19; known on 2015-12-16; judged right by Calien on 2015-01-06.

SimplementCaro will not annoy me in the next hour. ( 94% confidence )

Created by Mati on 2014-08-19; known on 2014-08-20; judged right by Mati on 2014-08-19.

“Her insan doğar, yaşar, ve ölür.” is meaningful and true. ( 98% confidence )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-18; known on 2014-08-18; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-08-18.

Assange leaves the embassy within a year. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-18; known on 2015-08-18; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-08-18.

Assange leaves the embassy within a week ( 10% confidence )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-18; known on 2014-08-25; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-08-25.

Assange leaves the embassy within a month ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-18; known on 2014-09-18; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-18.

Nawaz Sharif is widely believed to still be in PM house. ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-18; known on 2014-08-21; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-08-21.

bedycasa sera en cessation de paiement ( 60% confidence )

Created by ericlefevre on 2014-08-18; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by ericlefevre on 2015-06-01.

The place I will be living in in Edinburgh in 2014/15 academic year will have been booked (or near equivalent) before I have landed in the UK. ( 55% confidence )

Created by azatris on 2014-08-16; known on 2014-09-15; judged wrong by azatris on 2014-09-15.

I'll finish Computer graphics course (20 hours course) in 3 days. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-15; known on 2014-08-18; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-18.

Ebola virus will be controlled in 6 months ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-15; known on 2015-02-15; judged right by kuudes on 2015-02-19.

Barack Obama will do the Ice Bucket Challenge this year. ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-08-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-08-27.

This site has <b>obvious</b> <script type=“text/javascript”>alert(“XSS”);</script> ;). ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by TeMPOraL on 2014-08-14; known on 2014-08-14; judged wrong by TeMPOraL on 2014-08-14.

There will be significant improvements to the UX of this site related to ability to browse predictions and not get confused by what means what, and what's AJAX or not. ( 30% confidence )

Created by TeMPOraL on 2014-08-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by TeMPOraL on 2015-07-07.

The Rosetta Probe's Philae lander will touch down successfully (at least 9 of its 10 scientific instruments working) on comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko by the end of November. ( 85% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by tdhellma on 2014-08-14; known on 2014-11-30; judged right by kuudes on 2014-11-30.

It has snowed at least once in Calgary by September 30 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by minilodon on 2014-08-14; known on 2014-09-30; judged right by minilodon on 2014-09-09.

Ebola doesn't cause more than 2500 deaths by the end of the year ( 39% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by minilodon on 2014-08-14; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by TeMPOraL on 2014-09-23.

Tulio has a kid within next year ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by minilodon on 2014-08-14; known on 2015-08-15; judged wrong by tdhellma on 2015-08-17.

The situation on Ukraine will turn into international conflict before end of 2014 and battles will be fought on Polish territory. ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by TeMPOraL on 2014-08-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.

iPen and iPaper from Apple in 5 years ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2019-08-13; judged right by Antbak on 2019-07-06.

Statistics

Recent Predictions