The situation on Ukraine will turn into international conflict before end of 2014 and battles will be fought on Polish territory.

Created by TeMPOraL on 2014-08-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.

• TeMPOraL estimated 20% on 2014-08-14
• tdhellma estimated 10% and said “*2015” on 2014-08-14
• minilodon estimated 5% and said “It is already international” on 2014-08-14
• tdhellma said “I was assuming “military conflict” and “acknowledge use of regular military forces” – I guess if you count the Russian special forces then yeah, it’s already happened” on 2014-08-14
• TeMPOraL said “Yes, I meant a military conflict involving regular military forces of nations other than Russia and Ukraine.” on 2014-08-14
• adbge estimated 15% on 2014-08-16
• rebellionkid estimated 5% and said “Polish?” on 2014-08-17
• TeMPOraL said “I’m from Poland, I personally worry about the war spilling over here.” on 2014-08-17
• Silver estimated 5% on 2014-08-18
• TeMPOraL changed the deadline from “on 2014-12-31” and changed their prediction from “The situation on Ukraine will turn into international conflict before 2014 and battles will be fought on Polish territory.” on 2014-08-18
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2014-08-25
• wtbn estimated 10% and said “It is possible, but the cost of expanding this conflict further is too high. Unless polish government do something stupid…” on 2014-08-30
• TeMPOraL said “Given the overall sentiment in our media, it’s not unlikely that they do.” on 2014-08-30
• kuudes estimated 0% on 2014-12-25
• kuudes   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-01-01.