PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

QPR will beat or draw against Leicester ( 70% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-23; known on 2014-11-30; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-30.

I will get the part of Enjolras in Les Miserables ( 75% confidence )

Created by LogicalOxymoron on 2014-11-22; known on 2014-12-10; judged right by LogicalOxymoron on 2014-12-10.

Ebola has killed fewer than 1000 people in the US or Canada by November 2015 ( 95% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by LogicalOxymoron on 2014-11-22; known on 2015-11-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-11-01.

I go to GE ( 45% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.

Roy at karaoke ( 18% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.

Projecter board wipeable ( 85% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.

CP Friends w/ RyW (FB) ( 84% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.

I was going to think closer to FMK over branch by 23:59 of that day than at 07:00 on that day, conditional on finding out what happened on that day during that day OR he claims C OR otherwise yields on C ( 90% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.

He was serious about t's too much. ( 80% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.

Guy was running into old house ( 60% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.

We would predict the complexity of stories using probabilities and stuff… ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by DiseuseDeBonneAventure on 2014-11-21; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by DiseuseDeBonneAventure on 2019-07-04.

I will not have sex before July first of next year (2015). ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by EliTyre on 2014-11-21; known on 2015-07-01; judged right by EliTyre on 2015-07-01.

I will get a new computer by October ( 90% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-20; known on 2015-10-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.

I will buy a Oneplus ( 40% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-20; known on 2015-03-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.

I will win this next game ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-20; known on 2014-11-20; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-23.

I see BOTH by 18:00 today ( 52% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-20; known on 2014-11-20; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-11-21.

There will be less than 10 wagers on this prediction by the New Year ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-02.

One of my predictions will be the top prediction on 16th of January ( 30% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-19; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-17.

The top prediction (the first listed on the homepage) on 16th January won't have been decided yet ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-19; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by woodse on 2015-01-16.

HPMOR: By the end of the story, it will turn out that the troll actually killed Hermione. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by Mathias Zaman on 2014-11-19; known on 2015-04-15; judged right by Mathias Zaman on 2015-03-11.

I will be level 11 in Italian by December ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-18; known on 2014-12-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-16.

There will be more than 3 people at JB ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-18; known on 2014-11-25; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-25.

We will win the UKMT ( 10% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-17; known on 2014-11-19; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-18.

We will come above 5th in the UKMT ( 40% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-17; known on 2014-11-19; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-18.

We will come above 15th in the UKMT ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-17; known on 2014-11-19; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-18.

My event time is 11am tomorrow. ( 12% confidence )

Created by Calien on 2014-11-17; known on 2014-11-17; judged wrong by Calien on 2014-11-17.

My event time is 1pm tomorrow. ( 12% confidence )

Created by Calien on 2014-11-17; known on 2014-11-17; judged wrong by Calien on 2014-11-17.

My event time is 12pm tomorrow. ( 12% confidence )

Created by Calien on 2014-11-17; known on 2014-11-17; judged wrong by Calien on 2014-11-17.

My event time is 2pm tomorrow. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Calien on 2014-11-17; known on 2014-11-17; judged right by Calien on 2014-11-17.

Ross Taylor accepts my FB friend request by or on 30th November ( 52% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-17; known on 2014-11-30; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-21.

AC, JD and Boris will win PWC quiz on Thursday conditional on it going ahead ( 23% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-17; known on 2014-11-21; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-21.

I will be working as a software developer before 07/01/2015. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-11-17; known on 2015-07-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-04-20.

Conditional on my replacing my phone in the next six months, it will be an iPhone. ( 10% confidence )

Created by Calien on 2014-11-17; known on 2015-05-17; judged wrong by Calien on 2015-05-17.

I will upgrade my computer by January ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-16; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-17.

There will be more than 3 people at JB on Tuesday ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-16; known on 2014-11-18; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-18.

No body is found, no murder charge filed, and no confession is given regarding “MP murdering a child” story. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-11-16; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.

Let Me Blow Ya Mind will be the song I'm looking for. ( 70% confidence )

Created by cadda_p on 2014-11-16; known on 2014-11-16; judged right by cadda_p on 2014-11-16.

I will still be using PB by October ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-15; known on 2015-10-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.

Center party will gain or tie for most seats in Finnish parliamentary election 2015. ( 85% confidence )

Created by kuudes on 2014-11-14; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-04-19.

JH will get a baritone by September ( 50% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-14; known on 2015-09-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.

More than 3 RDGers will watch WWRY (not including me, or N) ( 70% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-14; known on 2015-03-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.

My Italian deck will have over 1000 cards by January ( 90% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-14; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-17.

Bob Dole finished 2nd to Bill Clinton in the election for which Bill Clinton was reelected. ( 89% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-14; known on 2014-11-14; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-14.

FMK says that she isn't interested ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-14; known on 2014-11-14; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-14.

FMK mentions SH today ( 25% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-14; known on 2014-11-14; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-11-14.

The US Supreme Court will rule in favor of the government in King v. Burwell ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-11-14; known on 2015-11-15; judged right by kuudes on 2015-09-09.

J's brother will join JB ( 70% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-13; known on 2015-09-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.

The next president won't be a Democrat ( 60% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-13; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.

Labour will get the biggest share of the vote next election ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-13; known on 2015-06-16; judged wrong by splorridge on 2015-06-16.

G will come to the WWRY rehearsal ( 70% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-13; known on 2014-11-14; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-13.

J will come to the WWRY rehearsal ( 60% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-13; known on 2014-11-14; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-13.

R will come to the WWRY rehearsal ( 40% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-13; known on 2014-11-14; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-13.

Two Year Emperor: Suze has more legitimate reasons for keeping her plans secret than what she says in chapter 70. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Philip_W on 2014-11-12; known on 2014-12-12.

Shanghai is the 3rd largest city in China (including Hong Kong) ( 30% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-12; known on 2014-11-12; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-12.

Dallas is one of the 20th largest cities in the US ( 60% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-12; known on 2014-11-12; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-12.

Nottingham is one of the 30th largest cities in England ( 90% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-12; known on 2014-11-12; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-12.

MS makes it to round 2 of try-outs ( 62% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-12; known on 2014-11-13; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.

Conditional on the interview process lasting until at least 11 AM, D's potential employer will treat em to lunch. ( 80% confidence )

Created by tylercurtis on 2014-11-12; known on 2014-11-12; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-11-13.

The Republicans will repeal the ACA by November 2015. *I'm going to withdraw this prediction as I wasn't thinking that the Republicans do not hold enough seats to override a presidential veto. ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by ren on 2014-11-11; known on 2015-11-08; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2015-11-04.

Chelsea will beat or draw against West Brom ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-11; known on 2014-11-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-23.

Stoke will beat Burnley ( 50% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-11; known on 2014-11-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-23.

Man City will beat Swansea ( 60% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-11; known on 2014-11-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-23.

If I'm still alive, I (xrisque) will still be single. ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by xrisque on 2014-11-11; known on 2016-06-16.

Journalers of OkC will still exist, and will have no less than 90 members. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by xrisque on 2014-11-11; known on 2016-06-16; judged right by ren on 2016-06-16.

Sam and Adam will still be married ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by xrisque on 2014-11-11; known on 2016-06-16; judged right by ren on 2016-06-16.

I will achieve a new PB by October ( 90% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-10; known on 2015-10-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-09-16.

I will achieve a new PB by February ( 70% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-10; known on 2015-02-15; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-15.

I will achieve a new PB before December ( 50% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-10; known on 2014-12-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-16.

I will rate Interstellar a 9 or above. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2014-11-10; known on 2014-11-10; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2014-11-16.

NC tomorrow ( 10% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-09; known on 2014-11-11; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-12.

I get one or more more bits/questions of the stats coursework done tomorrow. ( 70% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-09; known on 2014-11-11; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-12.

I go to GE tomorrow ( 60% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-09; known on 2014-11-11; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-12.

2nd date with I ( 57% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-09; known on 2014-12-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.

TB at karaoke ( 25% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-09; known on 2014-11-10; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-09.

I will be able to do a free-standing handstand for more than 15 seconds by January ( 60% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-09; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-17.

I will finish the sequences by December ( 90% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-09; known on 2014-12-25; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-25.

I will go to Parkrun on Christmas ( 40% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-09; known on 2014-12-25; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-25.

I will have done all the homework for tomorrow ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-09; known on 2014-11-10; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-10.

I won't convert to Christianity within the next year ( 99% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-08; known on 2015-10-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.

It will snow before March ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-08; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.

I will still have 15 or more followers on Twitter by January ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-08; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-17.

I will get a number directly from a street approach by or on 1st December ( 12% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-07; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-12-01.

Conditional on myself, PC or M not doing it, Mr Brightside will be played in 'the karaoke room' whilst I am present ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-07; known on 2014-11-08; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-11-09.

NC probability girl by or on 1st December 2014 ( 37% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-07; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-12-01.

Date with FMK by or on 1st December 2014 ( 41% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-07; known on 2014-12-02; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-12-02.

AW will be at karaoke tonight ( 57% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-07; known on 2014-11-08; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-11-09.

The sun will rise tomorrow ( 100% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-07; known on 2014-11-08; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-08.

My religious opinions will be unchanged by December ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-07; known on 2014-12-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-16.

Chelsea will win the premier league ( 25% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-06; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-05.

Either Chelsea, Man U or Man City n will win the premier league ( 50% confidence )