Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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FMK tells me she doesn't want to speak to me again ( 30% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-15; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-16.
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Wizards will beat/draw against Nets ( 52% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-15; known on 2015-01-17; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-17.
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The UK will have another coalition government after the election in 2015 ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RogerE on 2015-01-15; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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I will be enrolled in (3, 4, or 5) college courses in the Spring 2015 academic quarter. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-01-15; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2015-03-30.
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I will fly back to Phoenix on the 21st of January, instead of driving at a somewhat later date. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-01-15; known on 2015-01-27; judged right by EliTyre on 2015-01-22.
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Dollar will go to 66c ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Christine on 2015-01-15; known on 2015-09-16.
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At least 10% of packages in any major country delivered autonomously (last kilometer) in 2019. ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by brandyn on 2015-01-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by brandyn on 2020-01-01.
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Can be (legally) driven on standard roads between a majority of arbitrary street addresses in at least one major city or region (in any country) by a fully autonomous vehicle by 2020 Jan 1. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by brandyn on 2015-01-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by brandyn on 2020-01-01.
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Another major global economic collapse will happen. ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by realityriot on 2015-01-14; known on 2017-06-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-17.
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Toronto's condo market will tank in 2015. ( 25% confidence )
Created by realityriot on 2015-01-14; known on 2015-11-16.
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Fusion used (not just demonstrated) as a general power source (>1 Watt) anywhere in the world before 2020 Jan 1. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by brandyn on 2015-01-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by brandyn on 2020-01-01.
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A nuclear bomb (primary, not dirty) will be detonated, anywhere on earth, immediately killing more than 100 people, any time between 2015/1/1 and 2020/1/1. ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by brandyn on 2015-01-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-01.
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S&P 500 P/E below 9 any time before 2020 Jan 1. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by brandyn on 2015-01-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by brandyn on 2020-01-01.
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According to wikipedia Jesus died at the age of 31 ( 41% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14; known on 2015-01-14; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14.
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GT's CMT is 8+ ( 4% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14; known on 2015-01-14; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14.
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Rockets will beat/draw against Magic ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-14; known on 2015-01-15; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-15.
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Spurs will beat/draw against Hornets ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-14; known on 2015-01-15; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-15.
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Bradford will progress to the 4th round of the FA Cup ( 49% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14; known on 2015-01-14; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14.
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Ipswich will progress to the 4th round of the FA Cup ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14; known on 2015-01-14; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14.
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Tottenham will progress to the 4th round of the FA Cup ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14; known on 2015-01-14; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14.
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MA30237 exam will be cancelled ( 17% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-13; known on 2015-01-14; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14.
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Ebola won't spread in the American continent in the upcoming years ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Caio on 2015-01-13; known on 2015-01-14.
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I will be alive at the end of this class period. ( 100% confidence )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-13; known on 2015-01-13; judged right by benwr on 2015-01-13.
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The Rust programming language will reach version 1.0.0 by April 4, 2015 (the first six-week cycle after the scheduled beta1). ( 67% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-01-13; known on 2015-04-04; judged wrong by Rory O’Kane on 2015-05-15.
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“there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.” – Scott Adams ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-01-13; known on 2035-01-13.
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AN will reply to the discussion content of my mail of 13 jan 2015 by 27 jan 2015. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Philip_W on 2015-01-13; known on 2015-01-28; judged right by Philip_W on 2015-01-28.
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Spurs will beat/draw against Wizards ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-13; known on 2015-01-14; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-14.
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76ers will beat/draw against Hawks ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-13; known on 2015-01-14; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-14.
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I will get an A in at least one of the two classes I'm taking during winter session. ( 90% confidence )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-13; known on 2015-01-21; judged right by benwr on 2015-01-21.
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I had the correct spelling. ( 90% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-12; known on 2015-01-13; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-12.
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I go into Po's this Friday ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-12; known on 2015-01-18; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-17.
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If I repeat IGE, and other allergy tests I took previously at EMC, a week after finishing the Chinese medicine I got, the classification of my reaction to something won't change. I will still need to take antihistamine 1-2 times a day. ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by 11kilobytes on 2015-01-12; known on 2015-02-13.
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It was Lana Del Rey in BK ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-12; known on 2015-01-12; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-12.
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I will approach Zak next time I see him on campus ( 68% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-12; known on 2015-01-25; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-23.
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My flight from Chicago to Roanoke will not be canceled tomorrow evening. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-12; known on 2015-01-13; judged right by benwr on 2015-01-13.
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“By the middle of the 21st century, a team of fully autonomous humanoid robot soccer players shall win a soccer game, complying with the official rules of FIFA, against the winner of the most recent World Cup.” – Robocup mission statement ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-11; known on 2050-01-01.
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Bulls will beat/draw against Magic ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-11; known on 2015-01-13; judged wrong by benwr on 2015-01-13.
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Pistons will beat/draw against Raptors ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-11; known on 2015-01-13; judged right by benwr on 2015-01-13.
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Nets will beat/draw against Rockets ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-11; known on 2015-01-13; judged wrong by benwr on 2015-01-13.
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Celtics will beat/draw against Pelicans ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-11; known on 2015-01-13; judged right by benwr on 2015-01-13.
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The U.S. federal reserve will raise the federal funds target rate above 0.25% by June 2016 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-11; known on 2016-06-02; judged right by kuudes on 2015-12-16.
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I will graduate from Virginia Tech with a BS in Computer Engineering at the end of the Spring 2015 semester ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-11; known on 2015-05-15; judged right by benwr on 2016-01-27.
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FMK SC CBP, NB, H talk to Flash ( 8% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-11; known on 2015-01-11; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-11.
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Arsenal win/draw against Stoke ( 85% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2015-01-11; known on 2015-01-11; judged right by dgray on 2015-01-11.
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Man Utd win/draw against Southampton ( 90% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2015-01-11; known on 2015-01-12; judged wrong by dgray on 2015-01-11.
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North Korea’s government will not collapse (whether due to revolt/civil war, or war with another country) before Dec 31, 2015. ( 93% confidence; 20 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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In 2015 there will not be any terrorist attacks in the US that kill more than 40 people. ( 85% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01.
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We will end the year with an unemployment rate > 6% in the US. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01.
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I will attend the 2015 Burning Man. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-09-05; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-08.
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Sam will attend the 2015 Burning Man. ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-09-05; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-08.
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My computer will require repairs or replacement before Dec 31, 2015. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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Sam’s computer will require repairs or replacement before Dec 31, 2015. ( 20% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-29.
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During 2015 I will lose my wallet. ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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During 2015 I will run at least 1 marathon. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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Wumpus will still be alive at the end of 2015. ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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In 2015 I will have a baby. ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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We will sell the car before Dec 31, 2015. ( 45% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-29.
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In 2015 I will read at least 15 books. ( 90% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-29.
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Sam will still be involved with the morality lab at the end of 2015. ( 75% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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I will still work for my current company at the end of 2015. ( 85% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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I will end the year living in a Rationalist house. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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I will end the year still living in the Cambridge area. ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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Sam will be a vegan at the end of the year. ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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Sam will be a vegetarian or a pescetarian at the end of the year. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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I will be a vegan at the end of the year. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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I will be a vegetarian or pescetarian at the end of the year. ( 92% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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Republican VP candidate in 2016 will be Nikki Haley. ( 23% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-01-10; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Tottenham win/draw against Palace ( 90% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-01-10; judged wrong by dgray on 2015-01-11.
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Burnley win/draw against QPR ( 80% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-01-11; judged right by dgray on 2015-01-10.
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Chelsea win against Newcastle ( 80% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-01-11; judged right by dgray on 2015-01-10.
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Clippers will beat/draw against Mavericks ( 60% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-09; known on 2015-01-11; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-11.
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Knicks will beat/draw against Hornets ( 70% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-09; known on 2015-01-11; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-11.
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Kevin will be fired on the celebrity apprentice episode 2 ( 70% confidence )
Created by mad on 2015-01-08; known on 2015-01-09; judged right by mad on 2015-01-08.
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Pacers will beat/draw against Celtic. ( 55% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-08; known on 2015-01-10; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-10.
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A will go skiing in 2015. ( 30% confidence )
Created by adri on 2015-01-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by adri on 2016-12-04.
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M will take Geom1 reexam. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by adri on 2015-01-07; known on 2015-07-16; judged wrong by adri on 2015-07-19.
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A will have set up stuk before September 2015. ( 70% confidence )
Created by adri on 2015-01-07; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by adri on 2015-10-23.
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A's bike will get stolen or lost in 2015. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by adri on 2015-01-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by adri on 2016-12-04.
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A will go to Top reexam. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by adri on 2015-01-07; known on 2015-01-24; judged right by adri on 2015-01-25.
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Oil price (Brent crude) will be above $100/bbl in August ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by moridinamael on 2015-01-07; known on 2015-08-16; judged wrong by moridinamael on 2015-08-17.
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Oil price (Brent crude) will be above $60/bbl in August ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by moridinamael on 2015-01-07; known on 2015-08-16; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-08-16.
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MazeHatter will have a total negative karma score on LW on Feb 15, 2015 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-07; known on 2015-02-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-27.
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“Twitter will hire a bunch of “anchors” to retweet celebrities and politicians…” ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2015-01-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2016-05-17.
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Man City will beat/draw against Everton ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-07; known on 2015-01-11; judged right by dgray on 2015-01-10.
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Liverpool will beat/draw against Sunderland ( 70% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-07; known on 2015-01-11; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-11.
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All of the contestants of Survivor: Worlds Apart will be spoiled by the cast announcement (~25th of Jan) ( 10% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by mad on 2015-01-07; known on 2015-01-25; judged right by mad on 2015-01-23.
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I will have officially switched to PhB by next semester. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Calien on 2015-01-07; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by Calien on 2015-10-19.
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Conditional on my not switching programs, I will have declared a CS major by the end of my second year. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Calien on 2015-01-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Calien on 2016-01-05.
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Wizards will beat/draw against Knicks ( 53% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-06; known on 2015-01-08; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-08.
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Pelicans will beat/draw against Hornets ( 55% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-06; known on 2015-01-08; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-08.
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Created by ethaneshaw on 2015-01-06; known on 2015-01-06.
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Bucks will beat/draw against Suns ( 52% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-05; known on 2015-01-07; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-08.
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Spurs will beat/draw against Pistons ( 55% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-05; known on 2015-01-07; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-08.
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The main character in Bird Man would swap the prop gun for a real one and shoot himself. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2015-01-04; known on 2017-05-26; judged right by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2015-01-04.
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The SNP will get the most seats in Scotland next General Election ( 81% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-04; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by splorridge on 2015-06-16.
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Ukip will get the highest amount of seats next General Election ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-04; known on 2015-06-16; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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Ukip will have over 20 seats after the next UK general election ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-06-16; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-10.
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B will accept my friend request. ( 70% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-01-15; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-04.
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I will be single (defined either by facebook relationship status or it being blindingly obvious) throughout 2015. ( 65% confidence )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by roreiy on 2016-03-16.
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I will write >10 blog posts in 2015. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by roreiy on 2016-03-16.