Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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Conditional on credible source, JME inclusively between 30 and 35 years old in common parlance ( 50% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-22; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22.
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Conditional on credible source, David Belle >= 40 years old in common parlance ( 64% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-22; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22.
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Will believe SG was at P with prob >= 90% after usual checks ( 20% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-27; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02.
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That's All is in the book ( 33% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-26; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-24.
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I believe house/flat broadly sorted for next year by my first scheduled lecture/thingy of semester two ( 57% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-02-03; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-04.
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HPMoR: Chapter 104 posted by midnight ending February 15th Berkeley time. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-02-17; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-17.
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HPMoR: Chapter 103 posted by midnight ending January 28th 2015 Berkeley time ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-02-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-29.
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Two new-to-me chapters of Bleach out ( 23% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-22; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22.
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Zero new-to-me chapters of Bleach out ( 14% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-22; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22.
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One new-to-me chapter of Bleach out ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-22; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22.
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S or G at P as confirmed by speaking ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-25; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02.
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A or P at P with retroactive >=90% probability ( 50% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-25; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02.
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I go to a west country LW meetup before my first scheduled lecture/thingy of semester two ( 40% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-02-03; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-04.
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There was a mistake on the stats paper ( 85% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2016-01-16; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-24.
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Conditional on being able to find credible source, Anna Wise >= 26 years old wrt common parlance ( 54% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-22.
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Conditional on a unique lower year being given in infobox, CunninLynguists formed in or before 2004 ( 60% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-22; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22.
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M FC N ( 4% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-23; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-22.
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M KC N ( 25% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-23; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-22.
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FMK was on the bus ( 5% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-22; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-22.
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Hornets will beat/draw against Cavaliers ( 52% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-24; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-26.
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Raptors will beat/draw against 76ers ( 52% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-24; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-26.
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He will catch the bus ( 65% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-01-21; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-21.
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Vacation predictions: I will forget to pack something important. ( 35% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-02-08; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08.
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Vacation predictions: The power will go down at least once. ( 50% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-02-08; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-03.
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Vacation predictions: Something will get stolen. ( 15% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-02-08; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08.
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Vacation predictions: The cat will die while we're gone. ( 1% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-02-08; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08.
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Vacation predictions: I will see at least one band playing Merengue music. ( 75% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-02-08; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-02.
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Vacation predictions: I will be propositioned by a prostitute at least once. ( 1% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-02-08; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08.
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Vacation predictions: Sam will be propositioned by a prostitute at least once. ( 50% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-02-08; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-06.
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Vacation predictions: We will miss our connecting flight. ( 65% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-02-02; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-02.
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Vacation predictions: Sam will get sick from the food or water. ( 10% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-02-08; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08.
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Vacation predictions: I will get sick from the food or water. ( 15% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-02-08; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-04.
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Vacation predictions: I will get dengue fever. ( 1% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-02-25; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-20.
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FT ( 63% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-01-22; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22.
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Richard Simmons stated (in page, categories, or otherwise) as non-heterosexual on WP page ( 70% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-01-21; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-21.
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Milestone 4 as discussed at http://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=2155 will be achieved by 2028. ( 65% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-20; known on 2029-01-01.
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I will find a job before March 15th 2015 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Ruthie on 2015-01-20; known on 2015-03-16.
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HW by 23:55 ( 17% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-20; known on 2015-01-20; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-20.
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SR made PR about B ( 35% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-20; known on 2015-01-20; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-20.
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The sushi I like will be stocked today. ( 75% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-20; known on 2015-01-21; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-20.
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Someone got the sink fixed. ( 50% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-20; known on 2015-01-21; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-20.
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There will be free avocados today. ( 70% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-20; known on 2015-01-21; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-20.
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Heat will beat/draw against Hornets ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-20; known on 2015-01-22; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-22.
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Russia to be at war or to have common media reports of many troops engaging in combat in a European country other than Ukraine by the end of 2018. ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-20; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.
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The lack of magical twins in the School in Magic series will end up being a plot point in the next book. ( 55% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-20; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-02.
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JH is at his usual table ( 60% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-20; known on 2015-01-20; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-20.
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Rochdale is further north than Chesterfield ( 55% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-20; known on 2015-01-20; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-20.
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George Osborne is younger than David Cameron ( 80% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-20; known on 2015-01-20; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-20.
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By April 1 either at least one user on LW will be either banned or publicly reprimanded for abusing the karma system or it will be determined that Eugine_Nier is still using multiple accounts to push the karma system in a way that strongly favors his poli ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-20; known on 2015-04-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-01.
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I will have 20k after walking out of work ( 65% confidence )
Created by pedrollo on 2015-01-20; known on 2015-03-03; judged wrong by pedrollo on 2015-03-03.
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Spurs will beat/draw against Nuggets ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-19; known on 2015-01-21; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-21.
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Heat will beat/draw against Thunder ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-19; known on 2015-01-21; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-21.
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R as leaving BK ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-19; known on 2015-01-19; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-19.
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I will find SH as a Friend of RN in the next 5 minutes ( 40% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-19; known on 2015-01-19; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-24.
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B will contact me without prompting. ( 20% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-19; known on 2015-01-20; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-20.
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HW by 11:55 today ( 12% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-19; known on 2015-01-19; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-19.
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FC whilst still 20 ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-19; known on 2015-02-19; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-02-19.
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KC whilst still 20 ( 17% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-19; known on 2015-02-19; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-02-19.
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NC whilst still 20 ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-19; known on 2015-02-19; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-02-08.
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CBAB has a recollection of eating something in BK ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-19; known on 2015-01-20; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-19.
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We see Ricky went we enter BK ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-19; known on 2015-01-19; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-19.
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JH is around the corner ( 80% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-19; known on 2015-01-19; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-19.
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BK receipts M,W or F ( 55% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-19; known on 2015-01-19; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-19.
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She will catch the bus ( 85% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-19; known on 2015-01-19; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-19.
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There's another noise complaint before the end of the month. ( 5% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-19; known on 2015-02-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-02.
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Pelicans will beat/draw against Raptors ( 53% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-18; known on 2015-01-19; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-19.
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Spurs will beat/draw against Jazz ( 65% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-18; known on 2015-01-19; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-19.
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My initial interpretation of that FB story I saw is correct. ( 64% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-18; known on 2015-01-18; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-18.
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E hires me. ( 30% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-18; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-02.
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I get a response from E, and the response is favorable. ( 40% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-18; known on 2015-03-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-18.
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I get a response from E. ( 65% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-18; known on 2015-03-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-18.
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I will be in London before my first lecture of Semester 2 ( 37% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-17; known on 2015-02-04; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-04.
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I finish Computability & Logic or decide to move on to a later text from the list by 06:00 on Monday 2nd February ( 53% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-17; known on 2015-02-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-04.
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Some set of scales plausibly says my mass is <=70kg at any time by 05:00 on Monday 1st June 2015 ( 55% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-17; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-31.
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FC other than x before 07:00 Monday 1st June 2015 ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-17; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02.
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I feel I NC'd (incl. fake) by 04:00 on the morning of the first day of Semester 2 teaching ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-17; known on 2015-02-03; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-04.
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Will go past admission at Po's on 23rd/24th night ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-17; known on 2015-01-24; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-24.
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HW until I go to Po's ( 5% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-17; known on 2015-01-24; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-19.
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I will endorse the proposition that there was an R-'caused' F thing that felt like it was probably an Incident/Not Good between now and 06:00 Monday 16th February. (FPP) ( 40% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-17; known on 2015-02-16; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-25.
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I will think I've received some notable bit of 'positive' evidence that FMK is a bad idea by Monday 16th February. (FPP) ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-17; known on 2015-02-16; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-25.
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David Cameron was born in 1967 or later ( 25% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-17; known on 2015-01-17; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-17.
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This can of Diet Coke has >=1kcal of given as its energy ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-17; known on 2015-01-17; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-17.
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US Supreme Court to rule in favor of gay marriage. ( 76% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-06-26.
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I will be working as a software developer before 03/17/2015. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-03-17; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-04-15.
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We'll end up paying extra for going over views limit. ( 5% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-03-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-03-01.
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PJ will contact me for billing info. ( 4% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-01-20; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-16.
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Someone will complain about the tree. ( 25% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-02-16; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-16.
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We see Ricky as we leave BK ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-17.
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We remember to go into the library to book a room ( 100% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-16.
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Pistons will beat/draw against Pacers ( 53% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-01-17; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-18.
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Pelicans will beat/draw against 76ers ( 52% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-01-17; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-18.
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I will see Ben S on Monday. ( 60% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-01-20; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-20.
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A god will give me absolute unambiguous proof of his existence to me by tomorrow at noon. ( 0% confidence )
Created by woodse on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by woodse on 2015-01-16.
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by 2017 at least 8 states will have legalized recreational use of marijuana. ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by woodse on 2015-01-16; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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recreational use of marijuana will be legalized in arizona by 2017 ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by woodse on 2015-01-16; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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C's contract will be extended past Jan 30. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-02-02; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-30.
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That my wife will give birth to a baby girl ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by woodse on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-04.
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That Jayson will be employed in Az for his next job. ( 60% confidence )
Created by woodse on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-04-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-04.
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I will maintain my GPA above a 3.6 overall average this semester. ( 90% confidence )
Created by woodse on 2015-01-15; known on 2015-05-20.
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Mitt Romney will run for president again in 2016. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by woodse on 2015-01-15; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-10-01.