Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
-
It will be overclouded on 10 February ( 70% confidence )
Created by xplkqlkcassia on 2015-02-09; known on 2015-02-10; judged wrong by xplkqlkcassia on 2015-02-14.
-
By the end 2035, a major mathematical conjecture will be made by a computer with no substantial input from humans. ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-09; known on 2036-01-01.
-
Speech to text processing to improve such that by end of 2025 it will be an essentially solved problem. ( 85% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-09; known on 2026-01-01.
-
Someone in FM does the M1 exam this year. ( 40% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-08; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-08-16.
-
I do the M1 exam this year ( 25% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-08; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-08-16.
-
MIT will be closed on Monday. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08; known on 2015-02-10; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-09.
-
Tomorrow night's grocery delivery will be cancelled due to the snow, and I will receive a discount as a result. ( 45% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08; known on 2015-02-10; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-09.
-
Tomorrow night's grocery delivery will be cancelled due to the snow. ( 65% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08; known on 2015-02-10; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-09.
-
I will have symptoms of Y between Feb 12 and Feb 19. ( 20% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08; known on 2015-02-20; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-20.
-
Before 9am Monday there will be an email about someone working from home due to snow. ( 45% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08; known on 2015-02-10; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-09.
-
I will have all files from C by 11:59pm Monday night. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08; known on 2015-02-10; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-10.
-
G joins in at swing on Tuesday 10th February 2015. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-07; known on 2015-02-11; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-20.
-
That subreddit exists ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-07; known on 2015-02-07; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-02-08.
-
P guy added F FB ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-07; known on 2015-02-07; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-02-08.
-
SS BK ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-07; known on 2015-02-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-01.
-
I will overtake J in Duolingo points by the end of March. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-07; known on 2015-04-01; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.
-
I will overtake J in Duolingo by the end of February ( 30% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-07; known on 2015-03-01; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-03-14.
-
Sam got the atm to work. ( 85% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-05; known on 2015-02-06; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-05.
-
The water will go down again before we leave. ( 5% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-05; known on 2015-02-08; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08.
-
Sam will be home by 10. ( 80% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-05; known on 2015-02-06; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-05.
-
Sam will be home by 7. ( 50% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-05; known on 2015-02-06; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-05.
-
Obama signs executive order legalizing marijuana on the last day of his presidency. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by RESO on 2015-02-05; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by RESO on 2017-01-20.
-
Bitcoin over $1000 at any point before end of 2015 ( 12% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by learnmethis on 2015-02-05; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
-
Those women were A's daughters. ( 10% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-04; known on 2015-02-05; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-04.
-
Sam will go out tonight. ( 40% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-03; known on 2015-02-04; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-04.
-
We will see Marcos again. ( 75% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-03; known on 2015-02-08; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08.
-
Sam will get sunburned this week. ( 15% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-03; known on 2015-02-08; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08.
-
George Galloway will not appear in the main televised debates in the run up to the general election. ( 95% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-03; known on 2015-05-16; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-05.
-
I will get sunburned this week. ( 7% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-03; known on 2015-02-08; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08.
-
I will download 3-6 Android apps in the next month. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Calien on 2015-02-02; known on 2015-03-02; judged wrong by Calien on 2015-04-04.
-
I will download 2-10 Android apps in the next month. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Calien on 2015-02-02; known on 2015-03-02; judged wrong by Calien on 2015-04-04.
-
HP MOR : The source of magic stores “souls” (brain states) long term and is able to simulate them, but only those of non-Muggles. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Calien on 2015-02-02; known on 2015-03-15; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.
-
I go to watch the Superbowl ( 20% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-01; known on 2015-02-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-04.
-
Y T response by Monday 9th ( 33% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-01; known on 2015-02-09; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-01.
-
At least one of my sibling will make at least 20 predictions on this website before February 2016. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2015-02-01; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2016-04-25.
-
The televised debates between party leaders proposed by the major broadcasters of the United Kingdom in the run-up to the 2015 general election will not happen. ( 44% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by doxievee on 2015-02-01; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-08-16.
-
The four main supermarket chains of the United Kingdom (Tesco, Asda, Morrison's and Sainsbury's) will all be solvent by the end of 2015. ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by doxievee on 2015-02-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.
-
NATO and Russia will not have exchanged fire by the end of 2015. ( 83% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by doxievee on 2015-02-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
-
Islamist militants will cause one or more deaths in the UK, Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, Spain, Portugal, or Italy before or at 23:59 on the 31st March 2015 (per @MWStory). ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by doxievee on 2015-02-01; known on 2015-04-01; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-14.
-
Following the 2015 UK general election, a single party will hold a majority in the House of Commons. ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by doxievee on 2015-01-31; known on 2015-05-08; judged right by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
-
Following the 2015 UK general election, no party will hold a majority; however, it will be possible for two parties combined to hold a majority. ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by doxievee on 2015-01-31; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
-
Following the 2015 UK general election, no party will hold a majority; furthermore, no two parties combined will hold a majority, with the exception of a 'grand coalition' between Labour and the Conservatives. ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by doxievee on 2015-01-31; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
-
Effective altruist survey (http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/) results will be released by March ( 60% confidence )
Created by Andrew MacFie on 2015-01-31; known on 2015-03-16; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2015-03-29.
-
The Patriots will win the Super Bowl. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-01-31; known on 2015-02-02; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-02-02.
-
By January 1st, 2025, the US employment/population ratio will be 60% or under. ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-31; known on 2025-01-01.
-
I will quit my day job this year. ( 55% confidence )
Created by MattG on 2015-01-30; known on 2015-12-31.
-
BOTH will have accepted my friend request by the end of the day ( 30% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-30; known on 2015-01-30; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-30.
-
FMK will have accepted my friend request by the end of the day ( 67% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-30; known on 2015-01-30; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-30.
-
The missing key card will turn up. ( 70% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-30; known on 2015-02-28; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-02.
-
Ben finished the laundry. ( 75% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-29; known on 2014-01-30; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-30.
-
It will work on Sam's computer. ( 8% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-29; known on 2015-01-30; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-29.
-
Updating software will solve the problem. ( 8% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-29; known on 2015-01-30; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-29.
-
“People Will Spend the Majority of Waking Time in Virtual Reality by 2020” – Zack Kanter (http://goo.gl/ZlE6LS), taken to mean that the majority of Americans' waking hours will be spent in virtual reality in the year 2020 (not including augmented reality) ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-29; known on 2021-01-02; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
-
The house won't burn down while I'm at work today. ( 100% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-29; known on 2015-01-30; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-29.
-
Knicks will beat/draw against Pacers ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-29; known on 2015-01-30; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-30.
-
Pistons will beat/draw against 76ers ( 52% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-28; known on 2015-01-29; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-29.
-
Sh BK ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-28; known on 2015-01-28; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-28.
-
F before PM ( 38% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-28; known on 2015-01-28; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-28.
-
Those three FR's are accepted by the end of February ( 90% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-28; known on 2015-03-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-29.
-
After seeing photos, I am confident that Mark Ronson is conventionally black ( 43% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-28; known on 2015-01-28; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-28.
-
I don't think Nino will get a blue-eyed, hairless cat. ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by aeyk on 2015-01-28; known on 2015-02-18; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-03-14.
-
J will go to work tomorrow. ( 75% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-28; known on 2015-01-28; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-28.
-
P will go to work tomorrow. ( 25% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-28; known on 2015-01-28; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-28.
-
When I wake up tomorrow (in Boston, Mass.) there will be snow on the ground. ( 100% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-27; known on 2015-01-27; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-27.
-
My cut shows signs of infection tomorrow. ( 10% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-26; known on 2015-01-27; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-27.
-
U of Maine (Orono) will be closed tomorrow due to snow. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-26; known on 2015-01-27; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-27.
-
Pelicans will beat/draw against 76ers ( 55% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-26; known on 2015-01-27; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-27.
-
Magic will beat/draw against Grizzlies ( 53% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-26; known on 2015-01-27; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-27.
-
Thunder will beat/draw against Timberwolves ( 53% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-26; known on 2015-01-27; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-27.
-
Knicks will beat/draw against Kings ( 60% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-26; known on 2015-01-27; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-27.
-
Nets will beat/draw against Trail Blazers ( 55% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-26; known on 2015-01-27; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-27.
-
Facebook will have less than 300 000 000 active members in 2050. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Chri on 2015-01-26; known on 2051-01-01.
-
Google will be the most used search engine for the web in 2050. ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Chri on 2015-01-26; known on 2051-01-01.
-
Greece, will still have the Euro at the end of 2016 ( 66% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Chri on 2015-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
-
We're already parked on the correct side of the street. ( 50% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-26; known on 2015-01-26; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-26.
-
Jordan will be upset about Sam taking time off. ( 1% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-26; known on 2015-01-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-26.
-
We will meet about performance eval sometime this week. ( 90% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-01-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-30.
-
When I wake up tomorrow I will still have hands. ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-01-26; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-26.
-
J will comment on status. ( 25% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-02-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-27.
-
I'll work from home on Tues. ( 95% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-01-28; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-27.
-
Someone will leave early on Mon for snow-related reasons. ( 85% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-01-27; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-26.
-
>10 HBs before I wake up Tuesday morning. ( 50% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-01-27; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-27.
-
HP MOR : The source of magic stores “souls” (brain states) long term and is able to simulate them ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by claz on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-03-16.
-
HP MOR : the bargain between Voldemort and Lily Potter on the night of his demise is actually a magical ritual which will prevent Voldemort from killing harry ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by claz on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-03-16; judged wrong by Robert on 2015-07-23.
-
HPMOR : the resurrection stone can bring back a sentient but not controllable ghost from dna tissue ( or simply human remains ) ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by claz on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-03-16.
-
HPMOR : Quirrel has the resurrection stone. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by claz on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
-
Contingent on him being nominated for President by the GOP, Rand Paul will be elected President of the United States in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Faceh on 2015-01-25; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by Faceh on 2016-11-28.
-
Rand Paul will be the Republican Nominee for President for the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Season ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Faceh on 2015-01-25; known on 2016-07-21; judged wrong by Faceh on 2016-05-03.
-
Heart of Darkness in library ( 68% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-01-25; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-25.
-
Conditional on me getting a response from FMK, the response is positive in my eyes ( 33% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-01-26; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-25.
-
CBP sighted at fewest one lecture for at fewest four of my courses ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-03-01; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-06.
-
I get a response from FMK before 22:00 today ( 90% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-01-25; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-25.
-
It will rain in Adderet in the next 7 days ( 85% confidence )
Created by TheBlackFox on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-01-25; judged wrong by TheBlackFox on 2015-01-30.
-
Dr Bob predicts, based on oil industry, certainty of 75%, that BNE will be $50 or higher on the TSE ( 80% confidence )
Created by kjaques on 2015-01-24; known on 2018-01-23; judged wrong by kjaques on 2018-02-03.
-
Dr. Bob says closing stock price of CPG – $37.50 or higher, 75% sure based on predictions of oil. I'm more than that sure just based on inflation and basic economic growth. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by kjaques on 2015-01-24; known on 2018-01-23; judged wrong by kjaques on 2018-02-03.
-
B still going to California before Feb 1. ( 50% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-24; known on 2015-02-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-24.
-
T on arrival ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-23; known on 2015-01-23; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-24.
-
Harry Dresden will be infected with Nemesis at some point in The Dresden Files series (if the series is completed by Jim Butcher). ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by twmccart on 2015-01-23; known on 2024-06-16.
-
Created by mad on 2015-01-23; known on 2015-01-23; judged right by mad on 2015-01-23.
-
Conditional on credible source, Skepta inclusively between 30 and 35 years old in common parlance ( 58% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-22; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22.