Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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The Navier-Stokes Millennium prize will be awarded before 2020-01-01 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-01.
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Arsenal will win the F.A Cup ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-30; known on 2015-05-30; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-30.
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I will be involved in a bike crash serious enough that the police or EMS will respond between 2015-09-01 and 2016-05-01 ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-29; known on 2016-05-02; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-05-02.
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R+L=J to be explicitly referenced on screen by the end of Season 5 of Game of Thrones ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2015-05-28; known on 2015-06-14; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-15.
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Voter turnout for the US Presidential election to be less than 49% of registered voters. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-28; known on 2016-11-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Created by timujin on 2015-05-27; known on 2015-06-07; judged right by timujin on 2015-06-08.
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By, or around the time the next expansion for Hearthstone is released, Blizzard will fulfill at least one of the following four community's wishes (clarification in comments). ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by timujin on 2015-05-26; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by timujin on 2015-08-05.
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AHA Sam missed his flight. ( 70% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-26; known on 2015-05-29; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-26.
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Get a 1 in Part II Astro ( 50% confidence )
Created by ejlflop on 2015-05-26; known on 2015-06-15; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2015-06-12.
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Get at least a 2:1 in Part II Astro. ( 90% confidence )
Created by ejlflop on 2015-05-26; known on 2015-06-15; judged right by ejlflop on 2015-06-12.
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There will be at least two Democratic Presidential primary debates for the next US Presidential election. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-26; known on 2016-07-25; judged right by Jenson on 2016-07-14.
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By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-25; known on 2025-01-01.
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Off Foxtrot by May 30, 2015. ( 89% confidence )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-05-25; known on 2015-05-30; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-06-17.
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See NB in da house 2 after one round of updating ( 59% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-25; known on 2015-05-25; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-25.
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See NB in da house 2 ( 47% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-25; known on 2015-05-25; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-25.
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US official unemployment rate to remain between 3% and 7.5% through January 1, 2020. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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In both the 2016 and 2018 US elections, neither party will get a filibuster proof majority. ( 71% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-25; known on 2018-11-20; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Before January 1, 2020 the Dow will stay within 12,500 and 29,000 ( 72% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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MealSquares will have a vegan option available by this time next year ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-24; known on 2016-05-25; judged wrong by Temeraire on 2016-06-05.
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Conditional on neither Cruz nor Paul winning the Republican nomination, The2ndAmendment will when asked say they are supporting the Republican nominee for President. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-24; known on 2016-07-22.
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Rate of violent crime in Pakistan will start dropping around 2020, correlated with lead exposure 20 years earlier ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2015-05-24; known on 2030-12-31.
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Domestic per capita water use in Texas will increase from 2010 to 2015 as reported by the USGS ( 30% confidence )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-23; known on 2020-01-01.
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Domestic per capita water use in California will increase from 2010 to 2015 as reported by the USGS ( 30% confidence )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-23; known on 2020-01-01.
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I will have read 5 novels by the end of this year ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-23; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
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Conditional on me feeling I have sufficient information to make a basic judgement, he had a dislocate in his hand ( 20% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-23; known on 2015-05-29; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-24.
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Conditional on me feeling I have sufficient information to make a basic judgement, he had a fracture/partial break in his hand ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-23; known on 2015-05-29.
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Conditional on me feeling I have sufficient information to make a basic judgement, he had a complete break in his hand ( 14% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-23; known on 2015-05-29.
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Hillary Clinton to withdraw from the US presidential election by March 17th, 2016, and Martin O'Malley to be the Democratic nominee. ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-23; known on 2016-03-17; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-17.
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He's getting that phone call about the thing think he is ( 83% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-22; known on 2015-05-23; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-22.
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The price of APEX will rise by midnight. ( 70% confidence )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-05-22; known on 2015-05-23; judged right by jesselevine on 2015-05-25.
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Conditional on Hillary Clinton winning the Democratic nomination, she will get at least 54% of the popular vote. ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-22; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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A new Mersenne prime found by January 1, 2018 ( 65% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-22; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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I will play at least one game of chess with R.B.S. before we leave for New Haven. ( 55% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-22; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-23.
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Arab Spring 2: The Springening. “Men will never be free until the last king is strangled with the entrails of the last priest” Denis Diderot (1713-1784) The final days of the last monarchies on earth. All the Arab monarchs will be violently overthr ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-22; known on 2020-05-27; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-05-28.
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No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo ( 45% confidence; 13 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-22; known on 2050-05-29.
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The ever increasing difficulty of pushing the economies of the world forward will force the nations of the world to band together into supranational entities. Not like the E.U. but more like a federation of nations banding together like the U.S.A. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by FarOutFuture1988 on 2015-05-21; known on 2045-02-01.
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Lockheed Martin claims up to 3500 F-35 will be ordered. A look at the price and the previous track record of the F-22 instead leads to a certainty that all orders combined will be lucky to hit 940. That is 1/4 of LM claims. ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-21; known on 2020-05-23.
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Melbourne City will not win anything John van't Schip as Head Coach. ( 100% confidence )
Created by dfebb on 2015-05-21; known on 2016-11-21; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-12-04.
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Democrat to win popular vote in 2016 with at least 57% of the popular vote. ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-20; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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I will accidentally buy non-bivalvegan food by the end of the year. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-20; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
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Slatestarcodex will publish a reply to Ozy's piece within the next two weeks. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-20; known on 2015-06-04; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-04.
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The girl was the girl who I met in Kurt's kitchen that time ( 30% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-20; known on 2015-05-23; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-23.
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Cavs beat the Hawks ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-20; known on 2015-06-10; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-27.
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Both the Republicans and the Democrats to each have at least 34 US Senators after the 2016 election ( 91% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-20; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Texas irrigation application rate (acre-feet of water per acre of land) will increase from 2010 to 2015 as reported by the USGS ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-20; known on 2020-01-01.
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California irrigation application rate (acre-feet of water per acre of land) will increase from 2010 to 2015 as reported by the USGS ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-20; known on 2020-01-01.
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Warriors beat the Rockets ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-20; known on 2015-06-10; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-28.
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Deployments in the next 16 days will reduce the amount of Bellroy WIP (stories started and not yet accepted) down to 12 stories or less. ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mike on 2015-05-19; known on 2015-06-05; judged wrong by Mike on 2015-06-11.
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Domestic per capita water use in the US will increase from 2010 to 2015 as reported by the USGS ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by orthonormal on 2019-12-31.
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I have a confirmed fractured bone in my hand/wrist by or on 24/05 ( 25% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-05-19; known on 2015-05-25; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-05-23.
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There is no odd perfect number N such that N is not divisible by a 6th power of a prime- proven by January 1, 2045. ( 65% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-19; known on 2045-01-01.
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I will attempt to learn Haskell by August 20th, 2015 without stopping partway through ( 60% confidence )
Created by earfluffy on 2015-05-19; known on 2015-08-20; judged wrong by earfluffy on 2015-08-21.
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Starcraft III or Warcraft IV to be released by May 18, 2029 ( 65% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-17; known on 2029-05-18.
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The Renminbi will eclipse the US dollar as Reserve Currency in 2022. Central banks will hold their reserves in renminbi instead of the USD as they currently do. The USD will be No2 instead of No1. The IMF will be the source of data. ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-17; known on 2022-05-28; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-05-26.
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The Fort Galt building will not be up within a year of today. ( 84% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-05-17; known on 2016-05-17; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2016-05-18.
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CSK makes it to the IPL final. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Pradeep_Kumar on 2015-05-16; known on 2015-05-28; judged right by Pradeep_Kumar on 2015-05-23.
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Channel Tunnel is longer than the circumference of the Large Hadron Collider. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by orthonormal on 2015-05-16; known on 2015-05-17; judged right by orthonormal on 2015-05-21.
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Zhōnghuá will be the world's biggest economy in both PPP and GDP terms in 2022 as measured by the IMF. It is already the world's biggest economy in PPP terms and 2nd in nominal terms (2015). Lant Pritchett and Lawrence H. Summers disagree. ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-14; known on 2022-12-27; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-19.
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See CC in there by 14:05 ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-14; known on 2015-05-14; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-05-14.
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By January 1, 2055, driving a non-self-driving car on at least one US federal highway will be illegal. ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-13; known on 2055-01-02.
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The two sections of the exam I have revised for will both come up. ( 70% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-13; known on 2015-05-15; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-15.
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I will weigh more than 200lb before August 28th, 2015 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lumpzy on 2015-05-13; known on 2015-08-28; judged right by jesselevine on 2015-09-01.
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I will have a 4-6 pack before June 20th ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lumpzy on 2015-05-13; known on 2015-06-20; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-06-30.
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I will be >200 lbs, <13%bf by fall 2015 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-05-13; known on 2015-08-20; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-08-31.
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I will be >207lbs, <10% bf by Fall 2015 ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-05-13; known on 2015-08-20; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-08-19.
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Bharat will pass Nihon on the IMF's ranking of world's biggest economies. Bharat will be the 3rd biggest economy at GDP current prices in the world in 2022. However, Bharat will be one rank higher as the 2nd biggest economy in PPP terms. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-13; known on 2022-12-27.
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Bharat will pass the Deutschland on the IMF's ranking of world's biggest economies. Bharat will be the 4th biggest economy at GDP current prices in the world in 2020. ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-13; known on 2020-12-27.
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Bharat will pass the UK on the IMF's ranking of world's biggest economies. Bharat will be the 5th biggest economy at GDP current prices in the world in 2017. ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-13; known on 2017-12-27; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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Bharat will pass France in 2016 in terms of GDP current prices using the IMF as the data source. Bharat is already the the world's 3rd largest by PPP. It will be ranked 6th biggest economy in the world. ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-13; known on 2016-12-27; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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In 3 years, I will believe that functionalism is the most correct theory of mind. ( 90% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-05-12; known on 2018-05-12; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2018-05-14.
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In 1 year, I will believe that functionalism is the most correct theory of mind. ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-05-12; known on 2016-05-12; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2016-05-13.
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I will get attacked on Tera while leveling because people are cunts. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-11; known on 2015-05-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-12.
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I will reach level 17 on Tera, learn some Python and watch a few episodes of Anime ALL before I go sleep tonight. ( 55% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-11; known on 2015-05-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-12.
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US bicycle mode share will increase in the 2020 Census over 2010 ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-11; known on 2022-01-01.
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I predict that Raahul_Kumar will troll this site like he does other ones. ( 100% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by BharatSucksUS on 2015-05-11; known on 2015-05-10; judged right by BharatSucksUS on 2015-05-11.
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By 2033, the EM drive will be scientifically accepted and used to power vehicles. ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-11; known on 2033-01-01; judged unknown by btrettel on 2015-05-11.
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Created by Pradeep_Kumar on 2015-05-11; known on 2015-05-12; judged right by Pradeep_Kumar on 2015-05-12.
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CSK will be in the top two of the IPL league table. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Pradeep_Kumar on 2015-05-11; known on 2015-05-20; judged right by Pradeep_Kumar on 2015-05-16.
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Bharat will grow 10% in real GDP terms year on year from 2015-25. That will take Bharat from a 2.3 trillion USD nominal economy to 10.3 trillion dollar economy in 10 years, where Zhonghua is currently.In PPP terms Bharat will be the 2nd biggest economy. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-11; known on 2025-05-12.
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Assuming such services are still in demand, by 2030, more than 99% of court reporters, captioners, and CAT and CART providers in the U.S. will be replaced by automatic machines. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quintopia on 2015-05-11; known on 2030-01-01.
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>= 10% of California IT workers unionized by 2025 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by entropy on 2015-05-10; known on 2025-05-10.
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My plane will be delayed longer than 30 minutes ( 30% confidence )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-05-09; known on 2015-05-10; judged right by jesselevine on 2015-05-09.
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My flight will be delayed longer than “fifteen minutes”. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-05-09; known on 2015-05-10; judged right by jesselevine on 2015-05-09.
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My bus will arrive by 11:45 ( 50% confidence )
Created by TheBlackFox on 2015-05-08; known on 2015-05-08; judged right by TheBlackFox on 2015-05-08.
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Google will announce its involvement in creating charter cities and/or ZEDEs sometime within the next five years, and a post on this topic will get 300+ upvotes on /r/anarcho_capitalism. ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Faceh on 2015-05-08; known on 2020-05-08; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2020-05-08.
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Tories win >316 ( 80% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08; known on 2015-05-09; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.
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Tories win >325 seats ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08; known on 2015-05-09; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-08.
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Rory would have heard of E.S. Posthumus. ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-08; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-09.
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Superintelligence will be created within 30 years from 7th May 2015 ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by AlexLundborg on 2015-05-07; known on 2045-05-08.
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The average of the big seat predictions overstates Tory seats ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-05-07; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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I agree with the statement “there was no shy Tory effect” ( 90% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-05-07; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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We will win the game on BGO ( 50% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-06; known on 2015-05-06; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-06.
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There will be a question on Gödel's first incompleteness theorem ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-06; known on 2015-05-20; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-20.
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My friend Mr Agent will write more than 10 posts in the next 25 days, given that he committed to writing one every day. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Pradeep_Kumar on 2015-05-06; known on 2015-05-31; judged wrong by Pradeep_Kumar on 2015-06-01.
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I will make a 100 predictions here by the end of May. i.e., around 4 per day. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pradeep_Kumar on 2015-05-06; known on 2015-05-31; judged right by Pradeep_Kumar on 2015-05-23.
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Lee is telling the truth ( 10% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-05; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-05.
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David is telling the truth ( 15% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-05; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-05.
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Paul is telling the truth ( 20% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-05; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-05.
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Jo is telling the truth ( 65% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-05; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-05.
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Paul is lying ( 60% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-05; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-05.