By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-25; known on 2025-01-01

• JoshuaZ estimated 32% on 2015-05-25
• JoshuaZ said “Context is $20 bet with fricken http://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/3753y2/sdcs_are_coming_fast_so_why_should_we_spend_a/crkfu7k?context=3” on 2015-05-25
• orthonormal estimated 25% and said “The “known on” date is too early.” on 2015-06-01
• JoshuaZ changed the deadline from “on 2020-01-01” on 2015-06-01
• JoshuaZ said “Corrected. Thank you. ” on 2015-06-01
• RoryS estimated 20% on 2015-06-01
• David estimated 5% on 2015-06-05
• Andrew MacFie estimated 35% on 2015-06-05
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 33% on 2015-06-08
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 50% and said “I do think autonomous cars will be a huge success early on. Makes a great deal of economic and insurance sense.” on 2015-06-19
• PipFoweraker estimated 40% on 2016-01-07
• PseudonymousUser estimated 40% and said “I assume this means “at least 20% of all US driving miles”, right?” on 2016-01-10
• themusicgod1 estimated 58% on 2016-04-14
• elecnix estimated 20% on 2016-06-28
• two2thehead said “Certainly possible. Assuming that business realizes the advantage of slow and steady autonomous cars. Are we talking human transport or freight? Freight is almost assured.” on 2016-06-28
• Andrew MacFie estimated 40% and said “Progress is good but we have to wait for people to buy new cars” on 2017-04-08
• ioannes said “Seems difficult to assess. What source will you use to figure this out?” on 2017-04-09
• Andrew MacFie estimated 10% on 2020-02-11
• elecnix estimated 2% on 2022-12-10