By January 1, 2055, driving a non-self-driving car on at least one US federal highway will be illegal.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-13; known on 2055-01-02

• JoshuaZ estimated 65% on 2015-05-13
• JoshuaZ said “Note: Eve assigns much lower probability and is skeptical that this will ever occur. ” on 2015-05-13
• jesselevine estimated 15% on 2015-05-14
• Unknowns estimated 10% on 2015-05-14
• btrettel estimated 5% on 2015-05-14
• JoshuaZ said “Huh. I seem to assign this much higher probability than everyone else, worse the direction implies that Jesse and Unknowns may have only been that high due to anchoring bias. Can people explain what I’m missing here? ” on 2015-05-14
• jesselevine estimated 20% and said “I’m not sure about anchoring bias here. As of today, 05/15/15, self-driving cars are appearing on the roads in California. Legislation will likely have gone through multiple rounds of revision by 2055 and technological advances ++” on 2015-05-16
• jesselevine said “I can’t really put it better with the character limit here. I don’t think we’re going to face monumental challenges implementing this technology, personally.” on 2015-05-16
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 100% and said “I would be surprised if it takes as long as 2055. Insurance companies will refuse to insure manned drivers, so I would expect it earlier. 2055 is certain though.” on 2015-05-17
• EloiseRosen estimated 45% on 2015-05-20
• jasticE estimated 15% on 2015-05-24
• elecnix estimated 40% and said “More likely on state highways.” on 2016-06-28
• themusicgod1 estimated 45% on 2016-07-09
• elecnix estimated 10% and said “Americans like their liberties too much for this to happen.” on 2022-12-10