PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

the earth will spin for the next 24 hours ( 100% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by rbutorac on 2019-04-09; known on 2019-04-10; judged right by pranomostro on 2019-04-10.

I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-04-06). ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-06; known on 2019-04-13; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-14.

Robert Mueller to testify publicly before Congress before 2020 ( 66% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-04.

[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for December 2019 to exceed 50% ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2020-02-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.

[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for November 2019 to exceed 50% ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2020-01-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-07.

[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for October 2019 to exceed 50% ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-12-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-03.

[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for September 2019 to exceed 50% ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-11-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.

[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for August 2019 to exceed 50% ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-10-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-03.

[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for July 2019 to exceed 50% ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-09-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-05.

[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for June 2019 to exceed 50% ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-08-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-05.

[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for May 2019 to exceed 50% ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-07-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-02.

[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for April 2019 to exceed 50% ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-05-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-05.

[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for March 2019 to exceed 50% ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-04-30; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-05-03.

At least one indictment is made as part of a case referred by Mueller, before 2020 ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-12.

Rick Perry testifies publicly before the Senate Armed Services committee before 2020 ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-17.

Rex Tillerson testifies publicly before Congress before 2020 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-17.

Felix Sater testifies publicly before the end of May ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-06-01.

Felix Sater testifies publicly before the end of April ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-05-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-05-02.

A redacted version of the Mueller report is released before the end of April ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-05-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-19.

US & China to announce end to trade war in Q2 2019 ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-01; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.

A ( 80% confidence )

Created by Temp123 on 2019-03-30; known on 2019-03-31.

I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-03-30). ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-29; known on 2019-04-06; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-06.

Bolsonaro manterá o mandato presidencial até o final do período para o qual foi eleito. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by chemotaxis101 on 2019-03-28; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2023-01-01.

[Política nacional] Alguma versão da Reforma da Previdência será aprovada até o final de 2019. ( 65% confidence )

Created by chemotaxis101 on 2019-03-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2020-01-14.

Blackout in Venezuela continues through Friday ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-28; known on 2019-03-29; judged right by pranomostro on 2019-03-30.

Alex Trebek will die before July 1st, 2019. ( 27% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by skateboard34 on 2019-03-25; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by skateboard34 on 2019-07-01.

Andrew Yang will win the Democratic nomination. ( 8% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by skateboard34 on 2019-03-25; known on 2020-07-20; judged wrong by skateboard34 on 2020-03-05.

The UK to leave the EU without a deal on 12 April ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers )

Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-03-25; known on 2019-04-12; judged wrong by 6thNapoleon on 2019-04-12.

Felix Sater gives a new explanation for his email remarks linking the engineering of Trump's election victory to a Putin-team buy-in. ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-25; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-01.

Felix Sater testifies publicly before the House Intelligence Committee on March 27th 2019 ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-25; known on 2019-03-28; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-27.

I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-03-22). ( 7% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-03-29; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-29.

[2019 European Games] Estonia to win at least one medal in fencing ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-25.

[2019 European Games] Estonia to win at least 1 gold medal ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[2019 European Games] Host country Belarus to win at least 1 gold medal ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-25.

[2019 European Games] Russia to win the most medals ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[2019 European Games] Russia to win the most bronze medals ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[2019 European Games] Russia to win the most silver medals ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[2019 European Games] Russia to win the most gold medals ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[Fighting] UFC 239 to be held as scheduled on July 6, 2019 ( 98% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-07-06; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-09.

[Fighting] UFC 238 to be held as scheduled on June 8, 2019 ( 98% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-08; judged right by stepan on 2019-06-08.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Nov-Dec-Jan 2019/2020 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 39% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2020-02-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Nov-Dec-Jan 2019/2020 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 46% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2020-02-14; judged right by Cato on 2020-02-29.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Nov-Dec-Jan 2019/2020 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2020-02-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Oct-Nov-Dec 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2020-01-14; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-10.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Oct-Nov-Dec 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2020-01-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-10.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Oct-Nov-Dec 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 16% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2020-01-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-10.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Sep-Oct-Nov 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 50% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-12-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-09.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Sep-Oct-Nov 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 42% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-12-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-09.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Sep-Oct-Nov 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-12-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-09.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Aug-Sep-Oct 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 48% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-11-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-05.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Aug-Sep-Oct 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 41% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-11-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-05.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Aug-Sep-Oct 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-11-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-05.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jul-Aug-Sep 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 41% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-10-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-10.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jul-Aug-Sep 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 53% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-10-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-10.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jul-Aug-Sep 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-10-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-10.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jun-Jul-Aug 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-09-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-05.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jun-Jul-Aug 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 64% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-05.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jun-Jul-Aug 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-05.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for May-Jun-Jul 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-08-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-05.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for May-Jun-Jul 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-08-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-05.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for May-Jun-Jul 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-08-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-05.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Apr-May-Jun 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-07-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-10.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Apr-May-Jun 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-07-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-10.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Apr-May-Jun 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-07-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-10.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Mar-Apr-May 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-04.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Mar-Apr-May 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-04.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Mar-Apr-May 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-04.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Feb-Mar-Apr 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-05-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-08.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Feb-Mar-Apr 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-05-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-08.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Feb-Mar-Apr 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-05-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-08.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jan-Feb-Mar 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-04-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-10.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jan-Feb-Mar 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-04-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-10.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jan-Feb-Mar 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-04-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-10.

[US Politics] At least one Democratic candidate who participates in the first (June) debate to end/suspend campaign before the second (July) debate ( 72% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-09.

[US Politics] Mueller report to state explicitly that Donald Trump is guilty of a crime, or that sufficient evidence exists to justify indictment ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-05-19.

[Commodities: Crude oil in November 2019] Iran to produce at least 2.7 MMbpd ( 45% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )