[Commodities: Crude oil in May 2019] Iran to produce at least 2.6 MMbpd

Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-06-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-12.

• Cato estimated 92% on 2019-03-21
• Cato said “Verification: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/” on 2019-03-21
• pranomostro estimated 60% and said “@Cato: I am wondering why you’re so confident. Iran seems to have had a major production low, what are your reasons?” on 2019-03-25
• Cato said “@pranomostro: Yes, Iran is at historic lows. But the factors that have driven the fall (mostly sanctions) have already taken full effect. Iran’s economy is dependent on its remaining production.That’s why I don’t expect further reductions.” on 2019-03-27
• Cato changed their prediction from “Iran to produce at least 2.6” on 2019-03-29
• Cato estimated 80% on 2019-04-09
• Cato estimated 22% on 2019-05-09
• Cato estimated 16% on 2019-05-17
• Cato   judged this prediction wrong on 2019-06-12.