PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

[Internet] The majority of top 30 global websites to be either Chinese or blocked in China as of 1Q19 EOQ ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-04-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-01.

[Politics] Right-populists to gain in EU parliamentary election ( 75% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-05-27; judged right by amadeu on 2019-05-26.

Harley-Davidson to release its electric motorcycle (Project Livewire) as scheduled in August 2019 ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-09-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-01.

US homicide rate to be lower in 2019 than 2018 ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01.

[Politics] Cristina Fernández de Kirchner to officially run for president of Argentina in 2019 ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-28; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-28.

[Macri to be re-elected president of Argentina, given USDARS] > 40 ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-28; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-28.

British Museum to return Hoa Hakananai’a to Rapa Nui in 2019 ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.

[Politics] Conservatives to win more seats than Liberals in Canada's federal election ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-22; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-22.

[Politics] Canadian federal election to be held as scheduled on October 21, 2019 ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-22; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-22.

[Fighting] Georges St-Pierre to fight again in 2019 ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.

[Politics] Andrew Yang to appear in July 2019 Democratic candidates' primary debate ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-01.

[Politics] Andrew Yang to be a guest on a major American late-night talk show before April 2019 EOM ( 36% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-05-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2019-04-30.

[Politics] Andrew Yang to be a guest on a major American late-night talk show before May 2019 EOM ( 56% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-06-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-03.

[Politics] Andrew Yang to appear in June 2019 Democratic candidates' primary debate ( 84% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-28.

[Politics] NDA to win a majority of seats in Indian general election ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-06-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-28.

[Economy] UK's Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for March 2019 to be higher than any month after July 2016 ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-04-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-02.

[Personal] I will get a dog before July EOM ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-01.

[OMX Tallinn] to perform better in 2019 than in 2018 ( 75% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-03.

[OMX Tallinn] to outperform S&P 500 in 2019 ( 27% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.

[OMX Tallinn] to outperform OMX Riga in 2019 ( 42% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.

[OMX Tallinn] to outperform OMX Vilnius in 2019 ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.

[Estonian governing coalition] to be formed by end of March 2019 ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-04; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.

[Estonian governing coalition] to include Social Democrats (SDE) ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-04; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-24.

[Estonian governing coalition] to include Pro Patria (Isamaa) ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-04; known on 2019-04-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-24.

[Estonian governing coalition] to include Conservatives (EKRE) ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-04; known on 2019-04-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-24.

Hbox will win Pound, Smash N' Splash, Shine and The Big House in 2019 ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by wheat on 2019-03-01; known on 2019-10-14.

I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-03-01). ( 10% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-01; known on 2019-03-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-09.

[UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos] All three of the models to outperform chance ( 20% confidence )