PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years. ( 85% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2019-10-14; judged right by rwallace on 2019-10-15.

General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 99% confidence; 26 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by jasticE on 2010-10-14.

The sun will not become a nova during this year. ( 99% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by gwern on 2010-10-14.

Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry. ( 77% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2029-10-14.

I will fall asleep before 4 am. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-10-14; judged right by Jack on 2009-10-14.

FOX will not pick up the show “Dollhouse” for a third season. ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-11-15; judged right by Jack on 2009-11-12.

Civil conflict will break out in the US by the end of 2011. ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.

The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 24 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-01-01.

Lebron James will sign a contract with a team that is not the Cleveland Cavaliers for the 2010-11 season. ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-01; judged right by Jack on 2010-07-16.

Bayesian Induction will be proven to be merely a special case of analogical reasoning by 2014 ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by mjgeddes on 2009-10-14; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-08.

Democratic Candidate will win New Jersey Gubernatorial Race ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged wrong by freyley on 2009-11-05.

Mark Sanford will not depart as Governor of South Carolina before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009 ( 79% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

Sarah Palin will not be the Republican nominee for president of the United States in 2012 ( 80% confidence; 25 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-09-16; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-03.

'Alcopop' to win Melbourne Cup (Australian horse racing) ( 17% confidence )

Created by mjgeddes on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-11-03; judged wrong by mjgeddes on 2009-11-04.

Neither USA nor Israel will execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before 30 Jun 2010 ( 79% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-06-30; judged right by rwallace on 2010-06-30.

There will be a consensus among physicists that the Large Hadron Collider has provided experimental verification for the existence of the Higgs Boson by the end of October 2011. ( 36% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-10-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-31.

An announcement will be made before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009 that 10,000+ additional troops will be sent to Afghanistan ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

A federal government run health insurance plan will not be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec 2009 ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by Spring on 2016-02-10.

'Allez Wonder' to win Caulfield Cup (Australian horse racing) ( 10% confidence )

Created by mjgeddes on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-10-17; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-10-18.

Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )

Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.

Neither Eliezer nor Robin will have more than 10 public predictions recorded before Monday ( 81% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Matt on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-10-18; judged right by Matt on 2009-10-18.

The sun will rise tomorrow morning ( 88% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by uninverted on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-10-15; judged right by anonym on 2009-10-17.

Political Pirate movement becomes part of mainstream politics, causing major and concerete changes to governments and some industries, worldwide, before 2017 ( 26% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Jonii on 2009-10-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-12.

I will finish the Kudda video upload task by Thursday ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by tansel on 2009-10-13; known on 2009-10-17; judged wrong by tansel on 2009-10-17.

I will have puppet configured and in use by the end of next week. ( 70% confidence )

Created by jon on 2009-10-05; known on 2009-10-16; judged wrong by jon on 2009-10-16.

The US Dollar will drop to 1.75 against the Brazilian Real by the end of October 2009. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by marcio on 2009-10-01; known on 2009-10-30; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

Pete will have deployed his changes to PlanDeliver by the end of Tuesday ( 85% confidence )

Created by captainpete on 2009-09-28; known on 2009-09-30; judged right by captainpete on 2009-09-29.

Radiopaedia will be up and running on the staging server by the end of the week ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Wes on 2009-09-28; known on 2009-10-02; judged right by Wes on 2009-09-30.

LW will be running (not live) on AWS hardware this week ( 60% confidence )

Created by Matt on 2009-09-28; known on 2009-10-04; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-10-15.

G's analysis will be submitted to him by Wednesday ( 70% confidence )

Created by Matt on 2009-09-28; known on 2009-09-30; judged right by Matt on 2009-09-30.

I will spend less than 80% of my time at work being purely meta or purely meta-meta (or any purely meta^n) ( 65% confidence )

Created by Glenn on 2009-09-28; known on 2009-10-04; judged right by Glenn on 2009-10-05.

I will end up working at RMH before the end of 2010 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Frank on 2009-09-25; known on 2011-01-16; judged wrong by Frank on 2010-09-16.

Radiopaedia's visitor traffic will reach 100K/month before Sept 2010 ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Frank on 2009-09-25; known on 2010-11-16; judged right by Frank on 2010-09-16.

Volume 2: iphone App will sell 1000 copies in the first month ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Frank on 2009-09-22; known on 2009-11-01; judged wrong by Frank on 2009-11-02.

we will have finished the search filter implementation on Kando by Thursday ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by captainpete on 2009-09-21; known on 2009-09-24; judged wrong by captainpete on 2009-09-27.

LW will go up (as a demo, not live) on AWS this week ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Matt on 2009-09-21; known on 2009-09-27; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-09-27.

OB will go live on AWS this week ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Matt on 2009-09-21; known on 2009-09-27; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-09-27.

Radiopaedia wont go live tday ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Tom on 2009-09-21; known on 2009-09-21; judged right by Tom on 2009-09-21.

I will be on Oktoberfest saturday ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Tom on 2009-09-21; known on 2009-09-26; judged wrong by Tom on 2009-09-28.

Padding my 100% with almost nonsense predictions will be frowned upon by the less enlightened ( 79% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Glenn on 2009-09-15; known on 2009-09-21; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-24.

I have already made predictions in predictionbook ( 100% confidence )

Created by Glenn on 2009-09-15; known on 2009-09-15; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-15.

My PB chart (http://bit.ly/nV7rV) will still look very embarrassing at the end of the week. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Matt on 2009-09-15; known on 2009-09-21; judged right by Matt on 2009-09-21.

Radiopaedia will go live on or before Wed next week (week beginning 21 Sep) ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Wes on 2009-09-14; known on 2009-09-24; judged wrong by Wes on 2009-09-24.

I will have adapted to subconsiously use caps lock instead of backspace (or ctrl-h) by this time next week ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Glenn on 2009-09-14; known on 2009-09-20; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-15.

I will have tests running against aws by the end of today. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jon on 2009-09-14; known on 2009-09-14; judged right by jon on 2009-09-15.

I will have written and submitted my Trike profile ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by captainpete on 2009-09-14; known on 2009-09-21; judged right by Matt on 2009-09-21.

We will have another Plandeliver client (verbal agreement) by the end of the week ( 40% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tom on 2009-09-14; known on 2009-09-21; judged wrong by Tom on 2009-09-21.

Editing an order in plandeliver will be live at the end of today ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Tom on 2009-09-14; known on 2009-09-14; judged right by Tom on 2009-09-15.

I will learn touch typing and start using it in half of my typing ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by tansel on 2009-09-09; known on 2009-09-23; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-24.

I'll send Katrina some designs I'm happy with this week. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Matt on 2009-09-08; known on 2009-09-12; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-09-13.

I will have AWS servers built and ready for testing. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jon on 2009-09-08; known on 2009-09-09; judged wrong by jon on 2009-09-10.

Round 2 and 3 of the Radiopaedia styling will be completed. Where completed means released to dev. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Wes on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-14; judged right by Wes on 2009-09-14.

we'll have implemented free-text searching by selectable filters (new approach) ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by captainpete on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-14; judged wrong by captainpete on 2009-09-14.

I will make two more predictions before the weeks end. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jon on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-11; judged right by Matt on 2009-09-15.

At least one of our apps will be running on the full AWS stack (ELB, EC2 app, EC2 db, EBS) by Sunday ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Matt on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-13; judged wrong by Glenn on 2009-09-14.

I will have a new iPhone 3GS in hand ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Matt on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-13; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-09-12.

I will work Friday ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Glenn on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-11; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-11.

We will start working on the MyOB integration at Kando ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Tom on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-14; judged wrong by Tom on 2009-09-14.

Kando will be live first of december ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Tom on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-12-01; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-12-01.

I will have a new iPhone 3GS in hand ( 60% confidence )

Created by Matt on 2009-08-31; known on 2009-09-06; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-09-06.

At least one of our apps will be running on the full AWS stack (ELB, EC2 app, EC2 db, EBS) by Monday ( 70% confidence )

Created by Matt on 2009-08-31; known on 2009-09-06; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-09-07.

Matt will report (@ the standup) that he has done 'admini' at least 3 times this week. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Tom on 2009-08-31; known on 2009-09-07; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-09-06.

I will have closed all the currently open podshifter tickets relating to broken feeds ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Glenn on 2009-08-31; known on 2009-09-06; judged wrong by Glenn on 2009-09-07.

Round 2 of the Radiopaedia redesign integration will be completed ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Wes on 2009-08-31; known on 2009-09-07; judged wrong by Wes on 2009-09-07.

we'll have finished refactoring variants into products ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by captainpete on 2009-08-31; known on 2009-09-07; judged right by captainpete on 2009-09-07.

we'll be experimenting with meat-spaced project management system ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by captainpete on 2009-08-31; known on 2009-09-07; judged wrong by captainpete on 2009-09-07.

Will finish rewriting all Amirsys articles by now ( 50% confidence )

Created by Frank on 2009-08-14; known on 2009-08-21; judged right by Frank on 2009-08-21.

Michael Schumacher will finish the 2009 season in the Top 10 ( 55% confidence )

Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-07-30; known on 2009-11-01; judged wrong by Bébhinn on 2009-08-16.

Michael Schumacher will beat Raikkonen at Valencia 2009 ( 65% confidence )

Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-07-30; known on 2009-08-23; judged wrong by Bébhinn on 2009-08-16.

Michael Schumacher will finish in the points at Valencia 2009 ( 72% confidence )

Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-07-30; known on 2009-08-30; judged wrong by Bébhinn on 2009-08-16.

St. Kilda will beat Geelong today by fewer than 10 points. ( 77% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-07-05; known on 2009-07-05; judged right by TwitterPredicts on 2009-07-05.

Fabian Cancellara will finish the 2009 Tour de France in the Top 3 ( 72% confidence )

Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-07-05; known on 2009-07-27; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-07-26.

Lance Armstrong will finish the Tour de France in the Top 5. ( 69% confidence )

Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-07-05; known on 2009-07-27; judged right by TwitterPredicts on 2009-07-26.

Sarah Palin is mounting a 2012 presidential campaign ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-07-04; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-13.

Venus Williams will make it three-in-a-row at the Wimbledon 2009 Women's Final ( 72% confidence )

Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-07-04; known on 2009-07-05; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-07-04.

Config (short for configuration) will appear in the Merriam Webster dictionary as proper word ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by scott.arbeitman on 2009-06-24; known on 2014-06-24; judged wrong by Glenn on 2014-06-24.

L'OM sera-t-il champion de France en 2010 ? ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Faiste on 2009-06-23; known on 2010-06-23; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

Jon & Kate Plus 8 – Jon & Kate will get back together within a year ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-23; known on 2010-06-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.

Jon & Kate Plus 8 – The show will go on, in some capacity ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-23; known on 2009-12-23; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

Wimbledon 2009 Men's Final: Federer V Murray ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-22; known on 2009-07-06; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-07-04.

World-wide Search-Engine Market-Share: Bing & Microsoft will replace yahoo in the #2 spot for a prolonged period (Minimum of 1 week). ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-22; known on 2009-09-22; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-10-16.

Federer will win Wimbledon 2009 ( 67% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-22; known on 2009-07-06; judged right by TwitterPredicts on 2009-07-05.

Q4 stocks will falter and the markets will pull back. Gold and silver will move up greatly in proportion to how much the market indexes fall. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

North Korea's President Kim Jong-il's goal is to stabilize it's position in the world before he announces his resignation and appoints his 26 year old son to the presidency. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Q4 stocks will falter and the markets will pull back then gold and silver will move up greatly! ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by CRNewsReports on 2009-06-15; known on 2009-06-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.

Magic will win, pushing the Lakers to game 6 tonight. ( 62% confidence )

Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-14; known on 2009-06-15; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-15.

England will reach the 2009 World Twenty20 semi-finals. ( 65% confidence )

Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-14; known on 2009-06-21; judged right by vtstarin on 2009-06-16.

Twitter – @peterfacinelli will surpass his goal of 500K followers by June 19, winning his bet with @211me. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-14; known on 2009-06-20; judged right by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-22.

Kevin Rose will have a date with Jennifer Aniston by the end of the year. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Lina on 2009-06-10; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by Lina on 2010-01-02.

The US will successfully negotiate the release of Laura Ling and Euna Lee from North Korea ( 22% confidence )

Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-10; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by TwitterPredicts on 2009-08-04.

That the timing function on prediction book won't be fixed to take account of “local” time in the next 2 days ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by CRobert on 2009-06-04; known on 2009-06-06; judged right by CRobert on 2009-06-07.

Snow Leopard will not feature a redone UI ( 85% confidence )

Created by Wes on 2009-06-04; known on 2009-08-28; judged right by Wes on 2009-06-08.

The release date for Snow Leopard will be announced at WWDC. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Wes on 2009-06-04; known on 2009-06-08; judged right by Wes on 2009-06-08.

Third generation iPhone will be announced at WWDC ( 90% confidence )

Created by Wes on 2009-06-04; known on 2009-06-08; judged right by Wes on 2009-06-08.

Kelly Slater will win his 10th world title in 2010 ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by joloughlin on 2009-06-03; known on 2010-12-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-16.

We will end up chosing the vegetarian degustation menu. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by CRobert on 2009-06-02; known on 2009-05-31; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-06-04.

I will make it home before 7pm tonight ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by CRobert on 2009-06-02; known on 2009-06-02; judged right by CRobert on 2009-06-02.

Billabong shares will increase by more that 10% within the next 2 months ( 62% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Andy on 2009-06-01; known on 2009-08-01; judged right by Andy on 2009-06-03.

Buffy the Vampire Slayer will make it to the Big Screen ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-01; known on 2011-06-01; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2011-06-01.

The recession will end this year ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-01; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

Statistics

Recent Predictions