Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
-
There will not be a 2009 season of 'Make Me a Supermodel' ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-16; known on 2009-11-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
-
I won't have to read the manual to set up the monitor ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-16; known on 2008-09-16; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-16.
-
Glenn's fixes will have worked ( 87% confidence )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-16; known on 2008-09-16; judged right by Adam on 2008-09-16.
-
Adam will receive the file I just sent through my junior shell-fu ( 55% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2008-09-09; known on 2008-09-09; judged right by Matt on 2008-09-09.
-
This will not email me if i say yes then say no ( 90% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-09; known on 2008-09-09; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-09.
-
The world will not end when the LHC first collides 2 beams ( 99% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-09; known on 2009-12-28; judged right by rwallace on 2009-12-28.
-
The world will not end when the first LHC beam is injected on 10th September ( 100% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-09; known on 2008-09-10; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-11.
-
Despite Federal takeover, ‘Fannie Mae’ and ‘Freddie Mac' will become insolvent, and ultimately bankrupt ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-08; known on 2009-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
-
Emailing me will /not/ reproduce the nillify blank bug ( 90% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-08; known on 2008-09-08; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-08.
-
This will email me within 10 minutes ( 85% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-08; known on 2008-09-08; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-08.
-
I will be able to reproduce the nillify blank bug ( 45% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-08; known on 2008-09-08; judged wrong by Glenn on 2008-09-08.
-
This prediction will post ( 100% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-06; known on 2008-09-06; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-06.
-
Unchecked response won't want to send me an email ( 95% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-06; known on 2008-09-06; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-06.
-
Unchecked won't want to send me an email ( 90% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-06; known on 2008-09-06; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-06.
-
I won't be able to dupe this time ( 95% confidence )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-05; known on 2008-09-05; judged right by Adam on 2008-09-05.
-
I won't be able to double post this prediction ( 95% confidence )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-05; known on 2008-09-05; judged wrong by Adam on 2008-09-05.
-
Anonymous users will take Gerrit more than 4 hours ( 72% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-05; known on 2008-09-19; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-28.
-
Anonymous users will take Gerrit more than 8 hours ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-05; known on 2008-09-19; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-28.
-
Saying no now, and yes later to an email will work ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-05; known on 2008-09-05; judged wrong by Glenn on 2008-09-05.
-
tomorrow morning for this prediction will be in EST (AU) ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-05; known on 2008-09-05; judged right by Adam on 2008-09-05.
-
Tomorrow morning for this prediction will be in UTC ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-05; known on 2008-09-06; judged right by Adam on 2008-09-05.
-
After spending an hour on the phone to the UK I will be able to access my account ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-04; known on 2008-09-04; judged right by Adam on 2008-09-04.
-
The circles drawn by the google scatter plot are not quite accurate. the 48% points are above the 50 line ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-04; known on 2008-09-05; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-05.
-
This will redirect me back to recent instead of the old table view ( 95% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-04; known on 2008-09-04; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-04.
-
There will be no traffic mishaps on the Westgate between 9:30 and 10am tomorrow morning ( 70% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-04; known on 2008-09-04; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-05.
-
There will be no traffic mishaps on the journey home ( 80% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-04; known on 2008-09-04; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-05.
-
Matt will get me on to redmine today. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Lina on 2008-09-01; known on 2008-03-09; judged right by Lina on 2008-09-08.
-
I will get an email telling me this prediction can be judged ( 85% confidence )
Created by Lina on 2008-08-31; known on 2008-08-31; judged right by Lina on 2008-08-31.
-
13333001 = chordoma or chondrosarcom ( 85% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2008-08-28; known on 2008-10-16; judged right by Frank on 2008-10-02.
-
John Farnham will have another come back tour in Australia within 2 years. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Miyo on 2008-08-27; known on 2010-08-27; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
-
14721148 = TB ( 50% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2008-08-26; known on 2008-10-16; judged wrong by Frank on 2008-11-13.
-
14721148 = scc node or infective node ( 95% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2008-08-26; known on 2008-10-16; judged wrong by Frank on 2008-11-13.
-
Coffee machine drain hole is 9mm wide ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam on 2008-08-26; known on 2008-08-26; judged right by Adam on 2008-08-26.
-
dave & michelle will be pregnant with in one year of being married. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Miyo on 2008-08-26; known on 2009-08-26; judged wrong by Miyo on 2009-08-26.
-
moko will behave partcularly well tonight ( 65% confidence )
Created by Miyo on 2008-08-26; known on 2008-08-27; judged right by Andy on 2008-08-27.
-
Skinny jeans will last for no more than 18 months ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Lina on 2008-08-26; known on 2010-02-26; judged wrong by cointelligence on 2010-02-28.
-
Apophis will not hit earth ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Gerrit on 2008-08-25; known on 2029-05-16; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
-
Billabong shares will climb from $11.30 to over $13.50 within 6 months ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Andy on 2008-08-23; known on 2009-02-23; judged right by Andy on 2008-10-06.
-
I will get an email asking me to judge this prediction within 5 minutes ( 90% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2008-08-22; known on 2008-08-22; judged wrong on 2008-08-22.
-
Deadline emails will fail from cron due to sparse environment variables. ( 9% confidence )
Created by jarpy on 2008-08-18; known on 2008-08-18; judged wrong on 2008-08-18.
-
The rake task to send deadlines will work. ( 70% confidence )
Created by jarpy on 2008-08-18; known on 2008-08-18; judged right on 2008-08-18.
-
Matt will be happy he will no longer be able to be instantly Rick rolled ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-08-16; known on 2008-08-23; judged right on 2008-08-16.
-
this will format kinda ( 90% confidence; 10 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-08-16; known on 2008-08-16; judged right on 2008-08-17.
-
prologue is to epilogue as preface is to postface ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2008-08-15; known on 2008-08-29; judged right on 2008-08-16.
-
crontab will work ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2008-08-15; known on 2008-08-15; judged wrong on 2008-08-15.
-
I will get an email ( 60% confidence )
Created by Gerrit on 2008-08-15; known on 2008-08-15; judged wrong on 2008-08-15.
-
I will get an email ( 60% confidence )
Created by Gerrit on 2008-08-15; known on 2008-08-15; judged wrong on 2008-08-15.
-
14743632 = mengioma ( 90% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2008-08-14; known on 2008-11-16; judged right by Frank on 2009-02-09.
-
a confidence of 0 will break ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2008-08-14; known on 2008-08-14; judged wrong on 2008-08-14.
-
a prediction with a confidence of 0 will break pbook and i'll have to fix it manually ( 0% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-08-14; known on 2008-08-14; judged wrong by Glenn on 2008-08-26.
-
1337 is Lupus ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2008-08-14; known on 2011-08-14; judged wrong on 2008-08-15.
-
this will NOT email me when i tickle it. yet ( 90% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-08-14; known on 2008-08-15; judged right on 2008-08-14.
-
this will email me a reminder when i tickle it ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2008-08-14; known on 2008-08-14; judged right on 2008-08-14.
-
The existing crmhub api will allow licenses to be retrieved from an email address (but may require multiple requests) ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Matt on 2008-08-14; known on 2008-08-20; judged wrong by Adam on 2008-08-14.
-
case just now lymphoma ( 60% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2008-08-12; known on 2008-08-13; judged right on 2008-08-12.
-
case just now ADEM, Lymphoma, Mets ( 90% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2008-08-12; known on 2008-08-13; judged right on 2008-08-12.
-
14733648 = gangliocytoma ( 50% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2008-08-12; known on 2008-10-16; judged wrong by Frank on 2008-11-13.
-
14733648 = glioma of some kind ( 95% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2008-08-12; known on 2008-10-16; judged right by Frank on 2008-11-13.
-
The CrmHub api will allow all license keys to be retreived using an email address ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam on 2008-08-11; known on 2008-08-12; judged wrong on 2008-08-11.
-
The CrmHub api will allow the license key to be checked with only license key as input ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam on 2008-08-11; known on 2008-08-12; judged wrong on 2008-08-11.
-
14840002 = pap thyroid to node ( 65% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2008-08-07; known on 2008-10-01; judged right on 2008-08-12.
-
14840002 = TB or Pap T4 to nodes ( 95% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2008-08-07; known on 2008-10-01; judged right on 2008-08-12.
-
14546870 = scc of rt scm node ( 70% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2008-08-07; known on 2008-10-01; judged wrong on 2008-08-12.
-
14751956 adenoidcystic ca ( 60% confidence )
Created by Talia on 2008-08-05; known on 2008-09-20; judged wrong by Frank on 2008-09-26.
-
14751956 adenoidcystic ca ( 60% confidence )
Created by Talia on 2008-08-05; known on 2008-09-20; judged wrong by Frank on 2008-09-26.
-
MRN 14751956 adenoid cystic carcinoma of the lacrimal gland ( 64% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2008-08-05; known on 2008-09-20; judged wrong by Frank on 2008-09-26.
-
the human eye is at its full size at birth ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2008-08-04; known on 2008-08-04; judged wrong on 2008-08-04.
-
I will use the gate out back of canning to park my car in the courtyard at least 10 times this year ( 70% confidence )
Created by Lina on 2008-08-03; known on 2008-12-31; judged right by Lina on 2008-09-29.
-
pbook will need some type of legal disclaimer (i.e. privacy policy, user agreement) on signup within a year ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2008-08-03; known on 2009-08-03; judged wrong by Glenn on 2009-08-03.
-
this will be the most popular prediction EVER ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-08-02; known on 3008-08-02; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-05-17.
-
Using ✔ and ✘ on the main page (though not the user page) is elitist behaviour that will be destroyed within a week. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-08-02; known on 2008-08-09; judged wrong on 2008-08-14.
-
People will wonder why it has the form for creating a prediction when you're not logged in ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-08-01; known on 2008-08-06; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.
-
When I click the link in Glenn's bogus comment in my name, it'll be Rick ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Matt on 2008-08-01; known on 2008-08-01; judged right on 2008-08-01.
-
Sigur Rós will be awesome but the sound will suck ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Adam on 2008-08-01; known on 2008-08-01; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.
-
The statistical plot of sitewide predictions will approach a horizontal line, 50% accuracy, as the usage base increases ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-08-01; known on 2009-11-11; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-01-03.
-
We will finish user accounts by 5pm ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-08-01; known on 2008-08-01; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.
-
The Hindenburg Disaster caused 6 or fewer deaths ( 80% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2008-08-01; known on 2008-08-01; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.
-
Robbie Rotten's plans will once again be thwarted ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-31; known on 2008-08-02; judged right on 2008-08-02.
-
Mailer logging will take < 4 hours ( 80% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-30; known on 2008-08-01; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.
-
this will be the most important prediction EVER ( 100% confidence; 8 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-30; known on 2008-07-31; judged right on 2008-08-16.
-
not being able to comment on your own prediction is silly ( 90% confidence; 12 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-30; known on 2008-02-15; judged right on 2008-08-01.
-
Against what I've always throught, I (Glenn) am primarily protanomalous, not deuteranomalous. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-28; known on 2008-07-27; judged right on 2008-08-01.
-
GD's clan does not include Mercedes ( 90% confidence )
Created by Lina on 2008-07-26; known on 2008-08-09; judged right by Lina on 2008-08-28.
-
Fallshaw (Jo) will win the Woolworths Tug job – Jo' prediction, she's really sure. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Lina on 2008-07-25; known on 2008-10-25; judged wrong by Matt on 2008-09-23.
-
same HIV = VZV ( 25% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2008-07-24; known on 2008-08-16; judged wrong by Frank on 2008-09-15.
-
14749874 = cystic meningioma ( 90% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2008-07-24; known on 2008-09-16; judged right on 2008-08-07.
-
My quote for Urban was too low ( 60% confidence )
Created by Gerrit on 2008-07-23; known on 2008-07-24; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.
-
Ferret will not fail until friday ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Gerrit on 2008-07-23; known on 2008-07-25; judged right on 2008-08-01.
-
Over the next year I will use PBook more than Twitter to update friends on what I'm up to (like that falafel thing) ( 92% confidence )
Created by Andy on 2008-07-22; known on 2009-07-22; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-09-27.
-
That falafel I had for lunch will come back to say hello ( 90% confidence )
Created by Andy on 2008-07-22; known on 2008-07-22; judged right on 2008-08-01.
-
Within 2 days I will wish I had put the certainty on my last prediction at a higher percentage ( 92% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Andy on 2008-07-22; known on 2008-07-24; judged right by Andy on 2008-08-26.
-
PBook will become a fun way of sending messages to friends. ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Andy on 2008-07-22; known on 2009-01-22; judged right by Lina on 2009-05-14.
-
my bike will be ready to be picked up on time ( 80% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2008-07-22; known on 2008-07-23; judged right on 2008-08-01.
-
toenail will fall of by midnight ( 70% confidence )
Created by Natalie on 2008-07-20; known on 2008-07-21; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.
-
7381792 = meningioma ( 95% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2008-07-19; known on 2008-08-16; judged wrong on 2008-08-12.
-
7370034 = met ( 75% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2008-07-19; known on 2008-08-16; judged right on 2008-08-07.
-
Within 10 seconds, Charlottle will wriggle out of her current position ( 70% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2008-07-18; known on 2008-07-18; judged right on 2008-08-01.
-
6994767 right temp mass will not be a tumour when resected ( 55% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2008-07-18; known on 2009-04-16; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.
-
there will be stupid kneejerk legislation in response to the child dying on his bmx at the skatepark ( 70% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-18; known on 2008-07-13; judged wrong on 2008-08-18.
-
The year 2038 problem will be more interesting than y2k ( 39% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Adam on 2008-07-18; known on 2038-07-18; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-11-07.