Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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Google Wave will change the way we E-Mail/IM/Communicate ( 84% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-01; known on 2010-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-01.
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Apple will surpass Microsoft in revenue in a max. of 5 years. ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by crlosg2 on 2009-05-31; known on 2014-05-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05.
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The Palm Pre will be an iPhone killer ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-31; known on 2010-05-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Serena Williams will win the 2009 French Open ( 65% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-31; known on 2009-06-07; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-06.
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Button will be the world champion ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by vishnushashank on 2009-05-30; known on 2009-09-15; judged right by Matt on 2009-10-18.
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Google wave will be a new always open tab in my browser. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Lina on 2009-05-28; known on 2010-01-06; judged right by Matt on 2010-01-25.
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Google will lose their soul. We'll love them less in the coming years. ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Lina on 2009-05-28; known on 2011-05-27; judged wrong by Lina on 2011-05-27.
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Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Orlando Magic tonight – Cavs will win ( 60% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-27; known on 2009-05-27; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-27.
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The senate will confirm, Sotomayor, Obama's nominee to the Supreme Court ( 80% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-26; known on 2009-08-14; judged right by TwitterPredicts on 2009-08-07.
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California's Supreme Court will overturn the ban on gay marriage ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-26; known on 2009-05-27; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-26.
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Lakers will take down the Nuggets again tonight. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Bébhinn on 2009-05-26; known on 2009-05-26; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-26.
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The sun will rise ( 100% confidence )
Created by Andy on 2009-05-25; known on 2009-05-26; judged right by Andy on 2009-05-26.
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Susan Boyle will win Britain's Got Talent 2009 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Miyo on 2009-05-25; known on 2009-05-31; judged wrong by Miyo on 2009-05-31.
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The Lakers will have the edge at tonight's playoff ( 55% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-23; known on 2009-05-24; judged right by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-24.
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A Brawn car will win the 2009 Monaco F1 Grand Prix ( 70% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-23; known on 2009-05-24; judged right by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-24.
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Button will win the 2009 Monaco F1 Grand Prix ( 65% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-23; known on 2009-05-24; judged right by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-24.
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The safety car will make an appearance at the Monaco F1 Grand Prix ( 20% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-23; known on 2009-05-24; judged right by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-24.
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The LA Lakers will beat the Denver Nuggets tonight ( 70% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-19; known on 2009-05-20; judged right by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-20.
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Graph axes will have labels by this Friday ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by scott.arbeitman on 2009-05-19; known on 2009-05-22; judged right by dariusp686 on 2009-05-20.
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Kris Allen will not win American Idol ( 70% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-19; known on 2009-05-21; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-21.
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Adam Lambert will win American Idol ( 70% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-18; known on 2009-05-21; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-21.
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Predicting a Celtics victory tonight ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-17; known on 2009-05-18; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-18.
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For Australia the sex ratio at birth is 1.05 male(s)/female. Stats overall are probably skewed by incidence of deliberate female foetus abortions. Therefore I am 50% sure it will be a boy ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by EvF on 2009-05-17; known on 2009-06-17; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-01-25.
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@kevinrose and @tferriss will make a regular thing of Random ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Lina on 2009-05-15; known on 2009-08-16; judged right by Lina on 2009-08-16.
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An email will be sent to me ( 98% confidence )
Created by Wes on 2009-05-15; known on 2009-05-15; judged right by Wes on 2009-05-15.
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It will be a girl. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Andy on 2009-05-15; known on 2009-11-16; judged right by Miyo on 2009-06-18.
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Australia will have a double-dissolution election in 2009 due to the Liberal party blocking changes to the private health insurance rebate. ( 5% confidence )
Created by Lina on 2009-05-14; known on 2010-01-01; judged right by Lina on 2010-01-02.
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Andy and Miyo will have a baby boy ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Miyo on 2009-05-13; known on 2009-11-15; judged wrong by Miyo on 2009-06-18.
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this will email me at 15:10 and will link to pbook.dev.trike.com.au ( 69% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2009-05-13; known on 2009-05-13; judged right by Glenn on 2009-05-13.
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these two machines are the same deployment ( 85% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2009-05-12; known on 2009-05-12; judged right by Glenn on 2009-05-12.
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glenn will find this prediction today and tell me if there is any way to search all predictions ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Lina on 2009-05-12; known on 2009-05-13; judged right by Lina on 2009-05-12.
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prediction book will go live at predictionbook.com today ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Lina on 2009-05-12; known on 2009-05-13; judged wrong by Glenn on 2009-05-13.
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the ASX S&P 200 will hit 4000 in the next month ( 80% confidence )
Created by Lina on 2009-05-11; known on 2009-06-11; judged right by Lina on 2009-06-11.
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Creating a prediction in IE7 on XP VM will work ( 85% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2009-05-11; known on 2009-05-11; judged right by Glenn on 2009-05-11.
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The result of this coin flip will be heads ( 50% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2009-05-05; known on 2009-05-05; judged right by scott.arbeitman on 2009-05-05.
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I will not become a theist before the end of 2009. ( 96% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo on 2009-05-01; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by Pablo on 2009-12-30.
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There will be a market crash of a combined magnitude (perhaps over a few days) of around 10%. ( 90% confidence )
Created by marquisdetrade on 2009-04-30; known on 2009-06-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Created by dariusp686 on 2009-04-28; known on 2009-04-29; judged right by dariusp686 on 2009-04-28.
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Roger Federer will win the French Open. ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Philip on 2009-04-24; known on 2009-06-07; judged right by Philip on 2009-06-07.
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Volcom will dip below $10 again before the end of 2009 ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Andy on 2009-04-24; known on 2009-12-31; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-01-25.
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North Carolina will win the NCCA championship. ( 70% confidence )
Created by thomas on 2009-03-20; known on 2009-04-17; judged right by Matt on 2009-10-18.
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The url_mapping file will be completed and delivered to Sanath by 2pm today ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Wes on 2009-03-20; known on 2009-03-20; judged right by Wes on 2009-03-20.
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The test is wrong: I will still be lactose intolerant ( 78% confidence )
Created by Andy on 2009-02-19; known on 2009-02-26; judged right by Andy on 2009-02-26.
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I will be in england before podshifter gets restyled. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam on 2009-02-19; known on 2009-04-19; judged right by Matt on 2009-04-30.
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my visa will arive ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Adam on 2009-02-19; known on 2009-03-01; judged wrong by Adam on 2009-03-01.
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Electrodrive will buy a label printer ( 100% confidence )
Created by th on 2009-02-18; known on 2009-03-18; judged right by Lina on 2009-04-20.
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Trike IT will have migrated to being a python shop ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Adam on 2009-02-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by Matt on 2012-04-05.
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the new overridable URL field will cause problems with caching (esp. static caching) ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Gerrit on 2009-01-22; known on 2009-01-26; judged wrong by Gerrit on 2009-01-30.
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Our unfinished run of http://projecteuler.net/index.php?section=problems&id=32 will be correct anyway ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2008-12-04; known on 2008-12-04; judged right by Matt on 2008-12-04.
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Radiopaedia.org new styling will be rolled out before start of business Jan 15, 2009 ( 60% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2008-12-02; known on 2009-01-15; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-01-17.
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Radiopaedia.org new styling will be rolled out before start of business Feb 1, 2009 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2008-12-02; known on 2009-02-01; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-02-01.
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Our podshifter large file problems will resolve if lame can be made to correctly mp3 > wav decode ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2008-11-25; known on 2008-12-02; judged wrong by Matt on 2008-12-02.
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Westpac economist says the ASX will hit 3200 before turning around ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Andy on 2008-11-19; known on 2009-06-19; judged wrong by Andy on 2009-03-02.
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Andrew Martin (Miyo's accountant contact) thinks that by May 2009, lots of small to mid size businesses will be for sale ( 80% confidence )
Created by Andy on 2008-11-19; known on 2009-05-25; judged right by Andy on 2009-05-26.
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the aws-s3 refactor of podshifter will successfully upload the converted mp3 to s3 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam on 2008-11-12; known on 2008-11-12; judged right by Adam on 2008-11-12.
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Charlotte will be asleep before we arrive home (made yesterday, during car trip). ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Matt on 2008-11-10; known on 2008-11-09; judged right by Lina on 2008-11-10.
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Alex will be asleep before we arrive home (made yesterday, during car trip). ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Matt on 2008-11-10; known on 2008-11-09; judged wrong by Lina on 2008-11-10.
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Implement conditional get/caching of processed feed in pod shifter by 12pm thursday ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam on 2008-11-05; known on 2008-11-06; judged wrong by Glenn on 2008-11-06.
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Obama will lose, and the USA will have emigration explode to their highest ever rates ( 6% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Andy on 2008-11-04; known on 2009-08-04; judged wrong by Glenn on 2008-11-05.
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The ASX will end Thursday above 4,300. ( 55% confidence )
Created by Miyo on 2008-11-04; known on 2008-11-06; judged wrong by Miyo on 2008-11-07.
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The ASX will drop below 4200 again in November this year ( 57% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Andy on 2008-11-04; known on 2008-12-01; judged right by Andy on 2008-12-02.
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Miyo will make a prediction within 5 minutes ( 95% confidence )
Created by Andy on 2008-11-04; known on 2008-11-04; judged right by Andy on 2008-11-04.
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14237090 (same as the one before with wrong number) atypical meningioma ( 60% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2008-10-29; known on 2008-11-16; judged wrong by Frank on 2008-12-28.
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Removing GA, readding Prototype. Preview will work. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Glenn on 2008-10-23; known on 2008-10-24; judged right by Glenn on 2008-10-24.
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removing prototype.js will make preview work on dentalcorp ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-10-23; known on 2008-10-23; judged right by Glenn on 2008-10-23.
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$3.19 will have been a good buying price for Quiksilver. ( 61% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Andy on 2008-10-10; known on 2009-04-10; judged wrong by Andy on 2009-04-10.
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Quiksilver shares are better value at $3.62 than they were at $5.08 ( 100% confidence )
Created by Andy on 2008-10-09; known on 2008-10-10; judged right by Andy on 2008-10-09.
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There will be a show stopping bug in my backup rake task ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam on 2008-10-08; known on 2008-10-08; judged wrong by Adam on 2008-10-08.
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I am tester, hear me roar ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by tester on 2008-10-07; known on 2008-10-08; judged right by tester on 2008-10-07.
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I pushed ( 100% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-10-06; known on 2008-10-06; judged right by Glenn on 2008-10-06.
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Quiksilver shares will double inside 30 months ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Andy on 2008-10-06; known on 2011-04-06; judged wrong by Andy on 2011-04-06.
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bugger… 11999570 = meningioma ( 80% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2008-10-02; known on 2008-11-16; judged wrong by Lina on 2009-06-01.
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It will not demonstrate a lot of enhancement ( 60% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2008-10-02; known on 2008-10-02; judged wrong by Frank on 2008-10-02.
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What I am about to look at will be intraxial on next MRI ( 90% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2008-10-02; known on 2008-10-02; judged wrong by Frank on 2008-10-02.
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Crawf will have a baby boy ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Miyo on 2008-09-30; known on 2009-03-16; judged right by Miyo on 2009-02-25.
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Blackburn football club seniors will finish in the final 5 in EFL 2009 ( 65% confidence )
Created by Miyo on 2008-09-30; known on 2009-09-16; judged right by Miyo on 2009-10-17.
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rails partial name scheme for namespaced models will be views/namespace/classname/_classname ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-26; known on 2008-09-26; judged right by Adam on 2008-09-29.
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the proposed 24 week abortions legislation will pass unchanged through government ( 60% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-24; known on 2008-11-24; judged right by Glenn on 2008-10-14.
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Despite his best efforts, Matt will not still be alive ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-24; known on 2108-09-24; judged unknown by Glenn on 2008-09-26.
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“Notify me when someone responds” will be working again by the end of this week ( 95% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-24; known on 2008-09-26; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-27.
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Extremist confusionists will not be able to prevent LHC collisions – even given they now have until our Autumn next year ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-24; known on 2009-11-09; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Nat will be paged after midnight ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Frank on 2008-09-23; known on 2008-09-26; judged wrong by Frank on 2008-09-26.
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The NDE out of body consciousness experiment by Dr Parnia will be entirely negative ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-22; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-11-14.
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notification of comments and wagers will inform me ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-22; known on 2008-09-22; judged right by Adam on 2008-09-22.
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“less words” can be considered correct grammar ( 55% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-22; known on 2008-09-22; judged wrong by Glenn on 2008-09-22.
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The lyrics to electric feel are “spin me like an electric drill” not “shock me like an electric eel” ( 60% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-22; known on 2008-09-22; judged wrong by Glenn on 2008-09-22.
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The overall microsoft ad campaign will improve the Vista perception ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Lina on 2008-09-20; known on 2009-03-20; judged wrong by crlosg2 on 2009-06-01.
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private predictions will be secret ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-19; known on 2008-09-19; judged right by Adam on 2008-09-19.
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User publish default settings will work ( 79% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-18; known on 2008-09-18; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-18.
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UnPublished predictions will show in user pages ( 86% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-18; known on 2008-09-18; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-18.
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UnPublished predictions won't show in any happenstance ( 89% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-18; known on 2008-09-18; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-18.
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Published predictions will be published ( 85% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-18; known on 2008-09-18; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-18.
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This deploy will work ( 85% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-18; known on 2008-09-18; judged wrong by Glenn on 2008-09-18.
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Buying index funds today (S&P at 4552) would be a good investment ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by AndyAlterEgo on 2008-09-18; known on 2009-03-18; judged wrong by AndyAlterEgo on 2009-03-18.
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our changes worked ( 95% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-17; known on 2008-09-17; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-17.
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Wagerable is a word ( 95% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-17; known on 2008-09-17; judged wrong by Glenn on 2008-09-17.
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IngDirect will be back up by tomorrow ( 68% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-16; known on 2008-09-17; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-17.
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Without participating in a clinical trial, there is no legally available 'fire-and-forget' male contraceptive (pill, patch, injection etc.) ( 85% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-16; known on 2008-10-16; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-24.
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Next time I get breath tested, I'm going to ask to see my reading. The police person won't like it. ( 73% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-16; known on 2010-09-16; judged right by Glenn on 2008-10-06.
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Adam, Gerrit and Matt didn't know that you can remove a processor from the Mac Pro and save over $700 ( 65% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-16; known on 2008-09-17; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-17.