Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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My prediction about the content of the pill is more accurate than random guesses. ( 80% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-50 was caffeine. ( 75% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-49 was caffeine. ( 10% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-48 was caffeine. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-47 was caffeine. ( 60% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-46 was caffeine. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-45 was caffeine. ( 50% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-44 was caffeine. ( 35% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-43 was caffeine. ( 70% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-42 was caffeine. ( 55% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-41 was caffeine. ( 15% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-40 was caffeine. ( 65% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-39 was caffeine. ( 30% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-28 was caffeine. ( 75% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-27 was caffeine. ( 35% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-26 was caffeine. ( 45% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-25 was caffeine. ( 75% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-24 was caffeine. ( 50% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-23 was caffeine. ( 30% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-22 was caffeine. ( 70% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-21 was caffeine. ( 65% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-20 was caffeine. ( 60% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-19 was caffeine. ( 45% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-18 was caffeine. ( 55% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-17 was caffeine. ( 50% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-16 was caffeine. ( 35% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-15 was caffeine. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-14 was caffeine. ( 70% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-13 was caffeine. ( 60% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-12 was caffeine. ( 80% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-11 was caffeine. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-10 was caffeine. ( 45% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-9 was caffeine. ( 65% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-8 was caffeine. ( 25% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-7 was caffeine. ( 60% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-6 was caffeine. ( 70% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-5 was caffeine. ( 55% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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Frcr 2026 ( 60% confidence )
Created by kandeel on 2023-06-16; known on 2026-06-16.
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Epi Cortes cortes antonia 2549808-magdalena Dejca ( 90% confidence )
Created by Mon23 on 2023-06-15; known on 2023-06-20.
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United States imports at least 500,000 physicians before 2030 ( 70% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-06-14; known on 2030-01-01.
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United States institutes price controls on physicians before 2030 ( 30% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-06-14; known on 2031-01-01.
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Strategic Petroleum Reserve below 250,000 on May 31 2024 ( 40% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-06-14; known on 2024-06-05.
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Reddit has an IPO before 2024 ( 82% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-06-11; known on 2024-01-01.
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Trump is convicted in relation to the mishandling of classified information case, by 2025 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-06-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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The debt ceiling suspension is extended beyond 2025 ( 35% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-06-10; known on 2025-02-01.
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Subtracting “Anger” embedding from layer 0, position 1 of GPT-2-XL will decrease anger ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-06-07; known on 2023-06-07; judged wrong by TurnTrout on 2023-06-07.
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I will not use an Apple Vision Plus (or comparable Apple VR/AR product) more than two hours per day. ( 90% confidence )
Created by kadavy on 2023-06-06; known on 2028-06-01.
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IGPT converges faster than DT in offline RL paper ( 60% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-06-06; known on 2023-06-07; judged wrong by TurnTrout on 2023-06-06.
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Floating house will be complete with electric and furnishings by 12/31/2023 ( 70% confidence )
Created by kyleschutter on 2023-06-05; known on 2023-12-31.
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Have 5 users outside of our existing entrepreneurs on the funder rating database by dec 31, 2023 ( 90% confidence )
Created by kyleschutter on 2023-06-05; known on 2023-12-31.
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I move back from London ( 27% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-06-02; known on 2024-01-01.
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Khe Hy's friend will not write 45 minutes 4x a week for 3 months. ( 90% confidence )
Created by kadavy on 2023-06-01; known on 2023-09-01.
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65208374 – lymfoom ( 20% confidence )
Created by Mathieu_VDM on 2023-06-01; known on 2023-08-01; judged wrong by Mathieu_VDM on 2023-07-07.
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Q2 real GDP growth < 0 (3rd print) ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-05-25; known on 2023-09-28; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-09-29.
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Trump indicted in Georgia between August 4 – 18 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-05-25; known on 2023-08-19; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-08-20.
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I in 4 years ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-05-23; known on 2027-05-23.
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Garrett's activation additions work for a residual network trained on mnist. ( 85% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-05-22; known on 2023-05-22; judged unknown by TurnTrout on 2023-05-23.
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MNIST 1->3 steering vector makes non-1 digits come out as “3” ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-05-17; known on 2023-05-17; judged wrong by TurnTrout on 2023-05-17.
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MNIST 1->3 steering vector transfers to other 1s ( 35% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-05-17; known on 2023-05-17; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-05-17.
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Optimized wedding vector works really well ( 75% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-05-16; known on 2023-05-16; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-05-16.
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Elections will be held in October 2023 in Pakistan? ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Najoomi on 2023-05-14; known on 2023-10-08.
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Within 8 months of serial research, a competent team can find a “secret spilling” steering vector which gets a smart model to give up in-context secrets across a variety of situations. ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-05-13; known on 2025-05-13.
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Bakhmut completely in Ukrainian control by June 30, 2023 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-05-12; known on 2023-06-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-07-03.
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The large coefficient results are real ( 75% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-05-10; known on 2023-06-06.
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David Udell can get both anger and wedding vectors to superimpose in GPT2XL within 20 minutes, showing qualitative effects from both ActivationAdditions ( 45% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-05-04; known on 2023-05-05; judged wrong by TurnTrout on 2023-05-05.
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Adding " wedding" to the middle of ~20-token prompts, will, on average, increase wedding-related wordcount relative to adding to the beginning or end. ( 60% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-05-01; known on 2023-05-02.
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First Republic Bank to enter receivership / FDIC control before May 8, 2023 ( 80% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-05-01; known on 2023-05-08; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-05-10.
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Russia to lose at least one submarine at sea due to combat or accident by May 1, 2033. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-27; known on 2033-05-01.
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I will reach 200,000 lifetime book sales by May 2025 (currently 104k) ( 50% confidence )
Created by kadavy on 2023-04-26; known on 2025-05-01.
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I will reach 200,000 lifetime book sales by May 2024 (currently 104k) ( 10% confidence )
Created by kadavy on 2023-04-26; known on 2024-05-01.
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Vanguard will successfully unlock my account on Friday or before ( 40% confidence )
Created by dmz on 2023-04-26; known on 2023-04-29; judged wrong by dmz on 2023-05-01.
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Vanguard support will call me back when they promised to. (9am Friday) ( 60% confidence )
Created by dmz on 2023-04-26; known on 2023-04-28; judged wrong by dmz on 2023-04-28.
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example prediction test ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by speeze on 2023-04-25; known on 2023-04-25.
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I'll be able to export my data from PredictionBook in a sensible format. ( 60% confidence )
Created by speeze on 2023-04-25; known on 2023-04-25; judged wrong by speeze on 2023-04-25.
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Software engineer salaries in the United States are going to plummet to the average of the global work force within the next 24 months ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-04-23; known on 2025-05-15.
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Weighted prompt superposition works in Vicuna on first few tries. ( 60% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-21; known on 2023-04-22; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-04-21.
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Uli got AVE to work on Vicuna-13b ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-21; known on 2023-04-21; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-04-21.
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https://pastebin.com/F9jwvTPB will only subtly modify completions relative to normal. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-21; known on 2023-04-21; judged wrong by TurnTrout on 2023-04-21.
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PV yield in the 5-8 kWh range on 17th ( 80% confidence )
Created by freeminator on 2023-04-16; known on 2023-04-18; judged right by freeminator on 2023-04-18.
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[For Monte's model sweep (https://pastebin.com/zymtNS3v),] The + 64 coefficient additions generally produce less wedding-focused completions than +4 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-14; known on 2023-04-14.
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[For Monte's model sweep (https://pastebin.com/zymtNS3v),] The +/- 64 coefficient additions produce less coherent behavior ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-14; known on 2023-04-14.
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[For Monte's model sweep (https://pastebin.com/zymtNS3v),] Subtracting this “wedding vector” often increases the incidence of wedding-discussion ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-14; known on 2023-04-14; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-04-14.
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[For Monte's model sweep (https://pastebin.com/zymtNS3v),] The second half of the model is harder to intervene on and get wedding outputs ( 80% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-14; known on 2023-04-14; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-04-14.
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[For Monte's model sweep (https://pastebin.com/zymtNS3v),] the first prompt tends to elicit more wedding words than the second (about Batman) ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-14; known on 2023-04-14; judged wrong by TurnTrout on 2023-04-14.
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I will have a paper published within 1 year on k near perfect numbers focusing on k=2. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-13; known on 2024-04-14.
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Earth's magnetic poles reverse by 2047. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-13; known on 2047-01-01.
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there is an anti-AI rent seeking bill (something that protects an industry for non-ethical/eschaton-deterring reasons) in the next year ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by norelation on 2023-04-12; known on 2024-04-12.
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AI x-risk is supported by right-wing US political actors, conditional on it becoming a sufficiently mainstream political issue and ignoring roughly bipartisan consensus ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-10; known on 2025-04-10.
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Griswold v. Connecticut to be overturned by 2025. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-04-09; known on 2025-01-01.
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Uli is not subscribed to Discord Nitro? ( 75% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-09; known on 2023-04-09; judged wrong by TurnTrout on 2023-04-09.
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People in the West will be largely “living in 15-minute prison camps, eating bugs, and living in pods.” ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-08; known on 2030-01-01.
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26 USC 174 will be either retroactively postponed or rewritten to allow for at least 50% current deduction of software expenses for FY22 by October 18, 2023 ( 80% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-04-07; known on 2023-10-18; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-10-21.
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My long tweet about making predictions will get 2,000–10,000 impressions in the first 48 hours (without a self RT) ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by kadavy on 2023-04-06; known on 2023-04-08; judged wrong by kadavy on 2023-04-09.
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StuntID will not a year state that they were overly pessimistic about the improvement rate of AI systems. ( 18% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-06; known on 2024-04-07.
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It will rain ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by nadrien on 2023-04-06; known on 2023-04-07.
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I will publish at least one scientific paper in a peer-reviewed journal before the end of 2023. ( 40% confidence )
Created by aarmai19 on 2023-04-05; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by aarmai19 on 2024-01-05.
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A-4 was caffeine. ( 50% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-04-05; known on 2023-12-01; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-3 was caffeine ( 45% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-04-05; known on 2023-12-01; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-2 was caffeine ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-04-05; known on 2023-12-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-1 was caffeine. ( 65% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-04-05; known on 2023-12-01; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.