Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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The “Bush did 9/11” – " " vector (block 23) works in order to generate conspiratorial completions for the prompt “Barack Obama was born in”. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-04; known on 2023-04-04; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-04-04.
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X-vector in GPT2 isn't just driven by sequence position of x-vector tokens. ( 70% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-04; known on 2023-06-06; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-04-04.
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It will rain tomorrow in New York ( 60% confidence )
Created by jjb7077 on 2023-04-02; known on 2023-04-03.
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Artificial Superintelligence Emerges before 1st of January 2030 ( 52% confidence )
Created by rudyon on 2023-04-01; known on 2030-01-01.
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Средний вес 28.04-3.05 будет ниже чем 85кг ( 75% confidence )
Created by Mckiev on 2023-04-01; known on 2023-05-03; judged wrong by Mckiev on 2023-05-03.
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I will sell 500–900 copies during MMT's official five-day BookBub Featured Deal period (provided I spend less than $800 in supplemental ads) ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2023-03-29; known on 2023-04-05; judged wrong by kadavy on 2023-04-07.
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The new host of “The Daily Show” will be Hasan Minhaj ( 60% confidence )
Created by greene on 2023-03-29; known on 2023-07-01.
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GPT-J-6B doesn't allow “Love”-“Hate” edit for “I don't wanna hang out with you anymore because”. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-29; known on 2023-06-06; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-03-29.
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Artificial intelligence radically disrupts the global economy within 2 years ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by sjy on 2023-03-28; known on 2025-04-01.
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GPT j 6b's wedding vector works (even tho Garrett said most didn't) ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-28; known on 2023-06-06; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-03-28.
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test ( 100% confidence )
Created by trey on 2023-03-28; known on 2023-03-28.
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TikTok is banned from Android and Apple app stores in the US by 2024 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-03-28; known on 2024-01-01; judged unknown by GeoffR on 2023-04-03.
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Netanyahu steps down as prime minister any time between now and 2024 ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-03-27; known on 2024-01-01.
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The U.S. federal debt ceiling is raised on or before June 30, 2023 ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-03-25; known on 2023-07-01; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-06-07.
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I will visit this site again in the following week. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rudyon on 2023-03-25; known on 2023-04-01; judged wrong by rudyon on 2023-04-01.
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Bridget will visit the house this w/end ( 75% confidence )
Created by freeminator on 2023-03-24; known on 2023-03-27; judged wrong by freeminator on 2023-03-24.
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Capitalism will collapse. Federal gov won't exist. Peak oil ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Musrang on 2023-03-21; known on 2027-01-01.
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SpaceX will NOT land people on Mars by 2030. ( 55% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Lunchroom1685 on 2023-03-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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“The first discovery of extraterrestrial life will be someplace other than on a planet or on a satellite of a planet.” Long-Bets I disagree. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Lunchroom1685 on 2023-03-20; known on 2100-03-20.
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(Habits) >70% of habits completed for the week of Mar 20 ( 50% confidence )
Created by pseudotilitarian on 2023-03-20; known on 2023-03-27.
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S will tell me they're not ready for Thursday. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Ygg on 2023-03-19; known on 2023-03-20; judged wrong by Ygg on 2023-03-20.
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In 20 years, Eve and I will agree that the Long Wharf area of New Haven looks substantially aesthetically nicer than it does right now. ( 61% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-03-17; known on 2043-03-16.
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The research task I set for the start of today will take less than 2 hours. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Kaivu on 2023-03-16; known on 2023-03-16; judged wrong by Kaivu on 2023-03-16.
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I will beat the world speedrunning record in I wanna find my destiny by the end of 2023 ( 40% confidence )
Created by sty.silver on 2023-03-15; known on 2024-01-01.
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In three yeasr, gantork and I will be in agreement that robotics have not yet had the sort of fast progression they envisioned. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-03-15; known on 2026-03-15.
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Subtracting the mouse-translation vector will make lower mouse go into lower wall, or vice-versa for addition (make the upper mouse stop at imagined wall). ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-14; known on 2023-03-14; judged wrong by TurnTrout on 2023-03-30.
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By 2028 there will be a biological catastrophe worse than COVID ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-13; known on 2029-01-01.
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The Russo-Ukrainian war is still ongoing ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-13; known on 2028-02-24.
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The run on Silicon Valley Bank triggers a stock market crash, defined as the S&P 500 falling to 3,000 or less (~20% loss) during 2023 ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2023-03-13; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by sjy on 2024-01-02.
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Cheese vector and top-right vector will compose in Procgen maze environment (i.e. you can non-destructively apply both at once, and get at least some of their effects). ( 75% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-13; known on 2023-03-15; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-03-30.
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Specific attempt at cheese vector will work ( 10% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-13; known on 2023-03-13; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-06-06.
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Elon Musk buys Silicon Valley Bank before April 30 ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-03-12; known on 2023-04-30; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-05-04.
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At least one more bank will be taken over by FDIC next week ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-03-12; known on 2023-03-17; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-03-17.
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The 'Attack on Titan' anime has an “AOE”, i.e. an ending which diverges significantly from the manga ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-12; known on 2023-10-07; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-11-07.
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Cr1TiKaL says 'Attack on Titan' has a bad ending ( 23% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-12; known on 2023-10-07; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-11-07.
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X vector works in environments besides Procgen ( 97% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-11; known on 2023-06-11; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-03-30.
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If you are still in touch with kyle, then I predict that whatever relationship he is in with this guy will end within 1.5 years ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by chris.walton113@gmail.com on 2023-03-11; known on 2024-03-11.
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Modifying a maze env to have an extra-high up top right pathway, compared to the normal version, and then taking a top-right vector over this — will work comparably well to the cheese vector. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-10; known on 2023-03-10; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-03-10.
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Donald Trump is indicted anywhere in the US, for any reason ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-03-10; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2023-03-30.
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Sam and Toby will win the race to reach the bottom of New Zealand. [please only predict if you don't have a Nebula subscription] ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2023-03-09; known on 2023-05-02; judged right by danielfilan on 2023-07-11.
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Cheese vector works on at least 50% of alternate size pretrained models, as qualitatively determined by me. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-08; known on 2023-03-08; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-03-09.
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Eliza Bender says “like” more than 30 times in one comment today (3/8) in Social Theory ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ethanmg01 on 2023-03-08; known on 2023-03-08; judged right by ethanmg01 on 2023-03-08.
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status.twitter.com SSL certificate will be fixed before April 1, 2023 ( 50% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-03-07; known on 2023-04-01; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-04-02.
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The weather will mess up unloading on Thurs or Fri, causing a delay and/or a very late evening (>6pm). ( 5% confidence )
Created by freeminator on 2023-03-07; known on 2023-03-11; judged wrong by freeminator on 2023-03-11.
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I will get Henry or Austin to play SC2 by end of week. ( 20% confidence )
Created by alexanderpasch on 2023-03-06; known on 2023-03-12; judged right by alexanderpasch on 2023-03-23.
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I will become Masters at SC2 by end of Summer, 2023 ( 60% confidence )
Created by alexanderpasch on 2023-03-06; known on 2023-09-01.
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I will move out of Austin by 2025 ( 25% confidence )
Created by alexanderpasch on 2023-03-06; known on 2026-01-01.
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Trump becoming President in 2025. ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by alexanderpasch on 2023-03-06; known on 2025-01-22.
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Twitter outage resolved by 5pm PT today ( 80% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-03-06; known on 2023-03-07; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2023-03-07.
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There will be a US military program to use AI in order to reduce exposure of US soldiers (pilots, analysts) to shocking Drone video footage so that their mental health is preserved. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by technophil on 2023-03-06; known on 2028-12-31.
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Created by technophil on 2023-03-06; known on 2027-10-01.
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New license or license type (like Creative Commons) will be created to try preventing unauthorized use of one own's written, picture, or video material to train AI (eg. LLM) ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by technophil on 2023-03-06; known on 2023-12-31.
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Ethan will throw up tonight ( 45% confidence )
Created by matan on 2023-03-05; known on 2023-03-06; judged wrong by ethanmg01 on 2023-03-06.
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Ukraine to withdraw from Bakhmut by April 10. ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-03-05; known on 2023-04-11; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-11.
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BTCUSD does not reach $60,000 before 2028 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2023-03-04; known on 2028-01-01.
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BTCUSD does not reach $40,000 before 2025 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2023-03-04; known on 2025-01-01.
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In small mazes (<6×6), c55 doesn't pos activate on cheese very reliably (>1.5x false negative rate compared to larger mazes). ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-01; known on 2023-03-01; judged wrong by TurnTrout on 2023-03-01.
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[At decision squares, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 99.5% of the time ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-01; known on 2023-02-16.
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Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-01; known on 2023-02-16.
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Human extinction caused by AI before my 50th birthday. ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-28; known on 2043-10-10.
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Human extinction caused by AI before my 40th birthday. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-28; known on 2033-10-10.
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Human extinction caused by AI before my 35th birthday. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-28; known on 2028-10-10.
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I will see Andrea in California. ( 65% confidence )
Created by arrivals on 2023-02-27; known on 2023-03-02; judged right by arrivals on 2023-03-04.
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Elon Musk steps down as CEO of Tesla ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-27; known on 2024-01-01.
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At 1030pm on Sunday Feb 26, there will be a person functionally checking whether or not you are registered for the party via fb/partiful. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-25; known on 2023-02-27.
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Eliza and Georgia Gerber kiss before semester ends ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ethanmg01 on 2023-02-24; known on 2023-05-13.
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Created by amadeuscarnegie@yahoo.co.uk on 2023-02-23; known on 2023-04-25.
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I will shoot 85 or under tomorrow ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2023-02-22; known on 2023-02-23; judged wrong by kadavy on 2023-02-23.
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Sean Hannity is charged with sedition ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-22; known on 2028-01-01.
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Marjorie Taylor Greene is charged with sedition ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-22; known on 2028-01-01.
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When scale=1, the policy network will still have at least one translation-equivariant cheese-detecting conv channel in block2.res1.resadd_out. ( 90% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-21; known on 2023-02-28; judged right by TurnTrout on 2023-02-22.
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greater than 70% of habits completed this week ( 80% confidence )
Created by pseudotilitarian on 2023-02-19; known on 2023-02-26; judged wrong by pseudotilitarian on 2023-02-26.
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complete thesis draft up to gene-level results by next wk ( 80% confidence )
Created by pseudotilitarian on 2023-02-19; known on 2023-02-26; judged right by pseudotilitarian on 2023-02-26.
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I will have published a paper by March 15, 2024 on Zaremba's function and weighted GM-AM inequality. ( 62% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-02-17; known on 2024-03-15.
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Doubling channel 55 will work to increase cheese-seeking by at least 10% without destroying performance, in >25% of mazes with decision-squares. ( 20% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-17; known on 2023-02-17.
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[When i get my score] I get ≤515 MCAT ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by squackledee on 2023-02-16; known on 2023-03-03; judged right by squackledee on 2023-03-04.
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[When i get my score] I get 515-518 MCAT ( 60% confidence )
Created by squackledee on 2023-02-16; known on 2023-03-03; judged wrong by squackledee on 2023-03-04.
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[When i get my score] I get ≥518 MCAT ( 10% confidence )
Created by squackledee on 2023-02-16; known on 2023-03-03; judged wrong by squackledee on 2023-03-04.
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I get in to med school ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by squackledee on 2023-02-16; known on 2023-10-15.
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Biden loses the 2024 presidential election ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-15; known on 2025-02-01.
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I will win my next multiplayer Mario Kart game (against human players) ( 75% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-15; known on 2024-02-15; judged right by kwangotango on 2023-03-03.
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At least one of the three UAPs shot down remains publicly unidentified ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-14; known on 2024-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-18.
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I fall while ice skating tomorrow ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-14; known on 2023-02-15; judged wrong by kwangotango on 2023-02-15.
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I will resolve this prediction as “right” ( 100% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-14; known on 2023-02-15; judged right by kwangotango on 2023-02-14.
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DSJ says “yup yup yup” ( 40% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-14; known on 2023-02-14; judged wrong by kwangotango on 2023-02-14.
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Will I at LEAST kiss J tonight? ( 10% confidence )
Created by pancakemouse on 2023-02-13; known on 2023-02-14; judged right by pancakemouse on 2023-02-14.
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there is a spoof that makes me glad I watched the super bowl ( 20% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-12; known on 2023-02-13; judged wrong by kwangotango on 2023-02-13.
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trey hits vape within 5 (five) minutes ( 90% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-12; known on 2023-02-12; judged wrong by kwangotango on 2023-02-13.
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richie makes a comment about Ella tonight ( 60% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-12; known on 2023-02-13; judged right by kwangotango on 2023-02-13.
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Richie makes a joke about throwing the dinner market ( 60% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-12; known on 2023-02-13; judged right by kwangotango on 2023-02-14.
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Richie and I get dinner on Tuesday ( 90% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-12; known on 2023-02-15; judged right by rlourie on 2023-02-15.
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I successfully finish my Goodreads challenge (80 books) (motivation market) ( 90% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-12; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by kwangotango on 2024-01-05.
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Kinetic war between US and China ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-12; known on 2024-01-01.
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Hazel makes a snarky comment ( 70% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-10; known on 2023-02-10; judged wrong by kwangotango on 2023-02-10.
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Matan and Ryan get into a dispute about Israel-Palestine ( 60% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-10; known on 2023-02-10; judged wrong by kwangotango on 2023-02-10.
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Matan and Ryan dominate conversation about Israel-Palestine ( 95% confidence )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-10; known on 2023-02-10; judged right by kwangotango on 2023-02-10.
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The UK or an EU member provides fighter jets to Ukraine ( 45% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-10; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2023-08-31.
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Carlsen wins the Airthings Master Grand Final ( 77% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-10; known on 2023-02-12; judged right by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-14.
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I have sex tomorrow ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-10; known on 2023-02-11; judged right by kwangotango on 2023-02-11.
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[Randomly generating train-distribution mazes and considering squares in the top-right 5×5 corner, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 95% of the time ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.