PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Assuming Assange stays there, British enforcement agents will not enter Ecuador embassy without Ecuadoran consent before end of 2013 ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-16; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.

Bill Gates won't develop an affordable water-less toilet for the third world by 2020 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2020-12-31.

Fareed Zakaria: Indonesia will win more gold medals than Brazil in 2040 ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2040-12-31.

Fareed Zakaria: US will be #1 in gold medals in 2040 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2040-12-31.

China will win more gold medals than India in 2040 ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2040-12-31.

Linda McMahon (wife of wrestling CEO) won't win seat as Connecticut senator ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.

North and South Korea will reunify by 2025 ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2025-12-31.

An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years. ( 8% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-08-14; known on 2032-11-10.

There'll be a major virus/spyware story in the next 10 years that's primarily focused on theft of commercial information (financial, passwords, blackmail) ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-14; known on 2022-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-21.

There will be federal laws or regulations on high speed trading in the U.S. by end of 2017 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-14; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.

Google will write off more than $2b for Motorola purchase over the next 2 years. ( 55% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13; known on 2014-08-13; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-01-30.

Romney-Ryan won't win Wisconsin in 2012 ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13; known on 2012-11-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.

Angela Merkel will be reelected chancellor in 2013 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by dhoe on 2012-08-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by dhoe on 2013-12-16.

How/“why” (if applicable) our universe was created will be discovered through science. The answer will not be magical, but fundamentally understandable in nature. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by asdadfa on 2012-08-12; known on 2100-01-01.

Assuming Romney doesn't win, Paul Ryan will be one of the top 3 candidates in Republican primary for president in 2016 ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-12; known on 2016-03-01; judged wrong by Temeraire on 2016-02-12.

There'll be a hollywood movie featuring mesh worm robot adversaries by end of 2017 ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-11; known on 2017-12-31.

Mike Brown will be fired as coach of Lakers before 2014 NBA season ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-10; known on 2014-11-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-09.

Kobe will average less than 24 pts a game in 2012-13 NBA season ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-10; known on 2013-06-15; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.

I will pass the written exam for the 'Crime Analyst' position on 08/16/2012. ( 66% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-10; known on 2012-08-16; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-16.

I will be enrolled as a student @ ASU again before 2014. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.

I will be enrolled as a student @ ASU again before 2013. ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-26.

App.net will try to find a way to get money from people who have pledged at join.app.net, even if they don't hit their $500K goal. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by aaronsw on 2012-08-09; known on 2012-08-20; judged right by aaronsw on 2012-08-12.

I will still use an Android-based mobile by 2015. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-07; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-08-27.

If I still regularly use a laptop in 2015 (at least monthly), then that laptop will run a Linux-based OS (use the Linux kernel). ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-07; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-06-02.

There'll be a big summer shark scare story within the next 4 years ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-06; known on 2016-12-31.

Health care spending in the US will exceed 19% of GDP sometime before 2015. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-06; known on 2015-01-02; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-06.

EUR/USD on or below 1.22 on 2012-08-07 12:00 UTC. ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by clemux on 2012-08-06; known on 2012-08-07; judged wrong by clemux on 2012-08-07.

EUR/USD on or below 1.23 on 2012-08-07 12:00 UTC. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by clemux on 2012-08-06; known on 2012-08-07; judged wrong by clemux on 2012-08-07.

By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone. ( 53% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-08-04; known on 2022-08-04; judged right by atzeje on 2022-05-23.

Bruce Springsteen will play “She's the One” on August 24. ( 60% confidence )

Created by fistpo on 2012-08-04; known on 2012-08-25; judged right by fistpo on 2012-08-26.

The NY Jets will play in the Super Bowl in 2013 ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by fistpo on 2012-08-04; known on 2013-01-31; judged wrong by fistpo on 2013-01-31.

Steve Nash will retire by the beginning of the 2013-14 season. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by fistpo on 2012-08-03; known on 2013-10-31; judged wrong by fistpo on 2013-10-31.

By the end of 2015, Windows Phone 8 (including successors based on it) will not have as much as 10% of market share, measured as either number of active phones or phones+tablets. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by scav on 2012-08-02; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.

BRK Nets will not win two playoff rounds in 2013 ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by fistpo on 2012-08-02; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by fistpo on 2013-06-01.

First directly brain-controlled internet post will be announced within the next 5 years. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-01; known on 2018-01-01.

Unmanned aerial mapping will revolutionize archaeology (as evidenced by number of published papers) within the next 20 years. ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-01; known on 2033-01-01.

Titan Mare Explorer (TiME) will be chosen as next NASA Discovery standalone mission. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-06.

New Horizons mission will transmit strong evidence of subsurface ocean on Pluto. ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-01; known on 2016-11-12.

In the 2012 election, Obama will pick up at least one state he didn't win in 2008. ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-01; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-11-07.

HPMoR: Quirrell killed the original Voldemort and took his position. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-07-31; known on 2014-07-31; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.

[Breaking Bad Season 5] Hank will see Walt in some context associated with the pest control company, causing him to realize that he's hiding something… again. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by quicklystarfish on 2012-07-30; known on 2014-01-30; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-10-01.

Anne Romney's horse will place in 2012 Olympics dressage competition. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-07-28; known on 2012-01-08; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13.

In 2032, solar power will be at least 150% of the second highest energy source of us consumption (in kwh). ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Porejide on 2012-07-28; known on 2032-01-01.

Usain Bolt will win the 100m gold medal in the 2012 Olympics. ( 55% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-27; known on 2012-08-05; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-06.

Greece out of Eurozone ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by yahood on 2012-07-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.

Tony Blair will pick a fight over some public issue with Bill Clinton in the next 2 years ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2014-07-26; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-07-27.

Gabby Giffords (the congresswoman who was shot in 2011) will be attacked in a political ad in 2012 ( 35% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.

Mitt Romney will not pick a minority or woman or non-Christian or atheist or unmarried or gay person as VP (i.e. no surprises!) ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RobertLumley on 2012-08-11.

No new federal gun laws will be passed in 2012 as a result of the Colorado shooting ( 75% confidence; 7 wagers; 18 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.

Kristin Stewart and Robert Pattinson will break up before end of 2012 ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.

Lebron will continue to hog ball control in the 2012 olympics (measured by Chris Paul won't have more than 1 assist / per game more than Lebron) ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-09-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13.

Michael Phelps will not solely win the most gold medals in 2012 (he may tie, but won't win the most outright). ( 55% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-09-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13.

Missy Franklin will win 4 or more gold medals ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-09-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-06.

Usain Bolt won't win 100m gold medal in 2012 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-08-06.

Instagram will peak at < 240m users in the next 4 years ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2016-07-26; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-18.

3d movie fad is over in US (measured by 2012 3D box office dropping another 20% from 2011) ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2013-04-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-03-22.

Total Recall (2012) will do better than Bourne Legacy (2012) (measured by box office receipts of the first 4 wks) ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-09-21; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-09-21.

The drought will change opinions re: climate change in the U.S. (measured by 2013 Gallup poll vs. 2012 Gallup poll > +3%) ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-06-02.

Google won't offer high speed internet in more than 3 cities by Jan 1 2016 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-07.

I won't be able to find a >320gb external hard drive for my friend ( 75% confidence )

Created by Sarokrae on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-07-26; judged right by Sarokrae on 2012-07-26.

Zhou Tong hacked Bitcoinica's MtGox account in July 2012, and this is known before 2016 ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-07-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-07-26.

Ichiro will have a higher batting average for the Yankees (including playoffs) for the rest of the year than he did with Seattle ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-24; known on 2012-11-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-10-20.

Marissa Meyer will quit as Yahoo's CEO in less than 4 years ( 47% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-24; known on 2016-07-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-24.

US basketball team will beat Spain by less than 12 points tonight ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-24; known on 2012-07-26; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-07-25.

Rebekah Brooks will be convicted, while Andy Coulson will go free in the News Corp scandal ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-24; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-07-04.

Penn State won't put back up Joe Paterno's statue for the next 15 years. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-23; known on 2027-07-23.

US govt won't file criminal charges against a C-level executive of an American bank in America for the next 10 years ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-23; known on 2022-07-23.

DOJ won't file criminal charges against a C-level executive of an American bank in America based on LIBOR scandal. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-23; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-02-24.

LW user JaneQ is LW user private_messaging (is LW user Dmytry). ( 86% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by papermachine on 2012-07-23; known on 2013-07-02; judged right by Grognor on 2012-08-24.

If I donate blood today, then I will feel sick within 15 minutes from finishing. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-20; known on 2012-07-20; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-20.

Microsoft's stock will go down between July 18, 2012 and the first of a) when Mark Penn leaves the company or Microsoft announces he's leaving and b) one year later. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by aaronsw on 2012-07-19; known on 2013-07-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-20.

Dark Knight Rises will hold a score of 90% or greater on Rottentomatoes.com on July 25th. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-07-15; known on 2012-07-25; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2012-07-25.

I will have one or more offspring before 03/2013. ( 99% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-12; known on 2013-03-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-02-17.

I will have three or more offspring before 03/2013. ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-12; known on 2013-03-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-03-04.

I will have two or more offspring before 03/2013. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-12; known on 2013-03-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-03-04.

Dwight Howard will go to New Jersey Nets ( 45% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-11; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-08-11.

I will read every entry in the Summer 2012 Edition of the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy within 1 year from now. ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-11; known on 2013-07-11; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-07-27.

I will reach base safely (reaching by way of an error counts) in at least half of my plate appearances in my softball double-header tonight. ( 82% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cy Fleming on 2012-07-10; known on 2012-07-11; judged right by Cy Fleming on 2012-07-11.

I will trim and reorganize my Anki deck within the next 8 hours. ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-09; known on 2012-07-09; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-09.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 8 hours. ( 45% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-09; known on 2012-07-09; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-09.

I will complete chapter 20 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 8 hours. ( 95% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-09; known on 2012-07-09; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-09.

I will complete chapter 6 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 8 hours. ( 95% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-09; known on 2012-07-09; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-09.

Ben: In 2022, in the US, >50% of the top 5% of citizens by income who use computers will not be using a mouse / keyboard. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Porejide on 2012-07-09; known on 2023-01-01.

Pope Benedict XVI will be dead before November, 2012. ( 9% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-11-01; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-10-31.

Bloom & Speak Bilingual Tx will turn an economic profit before 09/2012. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-06.

Bloom & Speak Bilingual Tx will turn an accounting profit before 09/2012. ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-06.

'Evolutionary Psychology: The New Science of the Mind' will arrive on or before 07/17/2012. ( 100% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-07-17; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-15.

'Evolutionary Psychology: The New Science of the Mind' will arrive on or before 07/12/2012. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-07-12; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-13.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-07-08; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08.

I will complete chapter 19 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 85% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-07-08; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08.

I will complete chapter 5 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 10 hours. ( 95% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-07-08; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08.

pirateat40 will win his bet with vandroiy that BTCST will not default, as judged by nanotube ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-09-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-05.

Amazon won't launch it's own smart phone by end of 2013 ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-07; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 9 hours. ( 35% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-04; known on 2012-07-04; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-04.

I will complete chapter 18 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 9 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-04; known on 2012-07-04; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-04.

I will complete chapter 4 of The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 9 hours. ( 100% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-04; known on 2012-07-04; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-04.

I will complete Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 3 months. ( 66% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-10-03; judged wrong by Pablo on 2012-10-12.

I will complete Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 2 months. ( 33% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-09-03; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-06.

I will complete Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next month. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-08-03; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-24.

I will complete The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 7 weeks. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-08-21; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-06.