PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-10; known on 2012-06-10; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-10.

I will read chapter II of GEB within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-10; known on 2012-06-10; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-10.

kalla724 will write a technical post debunking cryonics ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-06-09; known on 2013-06-09; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.

The Indiana-Michigan border radiation anomaly will turn out to be the result of a secret nuclear test. ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by dain on 2012-06-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.

Spain will officially seek a EU bailout this weekend ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-08; known on 2012-06-11; judged right by chimpsky on 2012-06-09.

Scotland will vote in favour of independence in the 2014 referendum ( 28% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.

An earthquake >8 on Richter scale occurs in California in June 2012 ( 0% confidence )

Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-24.

The United States reestablishes its embassy in Tehran by the end of 2012 ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03.

Manmohan Singh will be reelected as prime minister of India in 2014 ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.

Holland will win Euro 2012 ( 12% confidence )

Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2012-06-29.

England will win Euro 2012 ( 6% confidence )

Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2012-06-29.

Spain will win Euro 2012 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2012-07-02.

Germany will win Euro 2012 ( 18% confidence )

Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2012-06-29.

Mubarak will have passed away by mid 2013 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-07; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by holycow81 on 2013-06-09.

Gwern will get the matrix IQ test data from Fitzgerald 2012 —shminux ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-06-07; known on 2012-06-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-06-14.

The “Rapture” will not occur by the end of 2050. ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by davidiach on 2012-06-06; known on 2050-12-31.

Facebook shares will not pass 100$ per share by the end of 2012. ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by davidiach on 2012-06-06; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.

I will read chapter I and II of GEB within the next 10 hours. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-06; known on 2012-06-06; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-06.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 100% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-06; known on 2012-06-06; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-06.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 95% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-05; known on 2012-06-05; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-05.

I will complete chapter 7 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-05; known on 2012-06-05; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-05.

when i get a girlfriend ( 30% confidence )

Created by shubham on 2012-06-04; known on 2012-09-19; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-10.

iPad Mini will launch in September 2012 — Brian White, Topeka Capital Markets ( 35% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-04; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-10-09.

iPhone 5 will launch in September of 2012 — Brian White, Topeka Capital Market ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-04; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-09-13.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 9 hours. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-04; known on 2012-06-04; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-04.

I will complete chapter 6 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 9 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-04; known on 2012-06-04; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-04.

I will apply to at least 1 graduate school by the end of the summer. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Primeval on 2012-06-03; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by Primeval on 2012-08-02.

Bloom & Speak Bilingual Tx, will be operable by 2012-8-1 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Primeval on 2012-06-03; known on 2012-08-01; judged right by Primeval on 2012-08-02.

The Los Angeles Kings will win this year's Stanley Cup by a 4-0 victory over New Jersey Devils in the final series currently underway. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-06-03; known on 2012-06-07; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2012-06-07.

LessWrong user XiXiDu or a XiXiDu sockpuppet will post a comment or article to lesswrong.com before 2018 ( 89% confidence; 12 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-06-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-09-04.

The “top contributor” for Humble Bundle V will equal or exceed $10000. ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-06-03; known on 2012-06-15; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2012-06-11.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-03; known on 2012-06-03; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-03.

I will complete chapter 5 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-03; known on 2012-06-03; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-03.

I will complete chapter 2 of the All-In-One LPIC-1/CompTIA Linux+ Certification Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-03; known on 2012-06-03; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-03.

Elon Musk will attempt to go to the Moon before the end of his life ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-01; known on 2052-01-01.

John Edwards won't be retried ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-01; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-07-06.

Grognor will record >20 days of sleep quality data with melatonin use ( 45% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-05-31; known on 2012-08-31; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-08-28.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 3 hours. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-31; known on 2012-05-31; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-31.

I will reread chapter 2 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 3 hours. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-31; known on 2012-05-31; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-31.

Movie, Les Miserable (2012), will do better than expected (4 wk gross > 67m @ HSX) ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-30; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-03-22.

I will finish practice test #2 within the next 10 hours. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-30; known on 2012-05-30; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-30.

I will complete chapter 4 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-30; known on 2012-05-30; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-30.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 100% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-30; known on 2012-05-30; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-30.

I will complete chapter 1 of the All-In-One LPIC-1/CompTIA Linux+ Certification Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-30; known on 2012-05-30; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-30.

RML “2013 will deploy on the 8th of June” ( 60% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-05-30; known on 2012-06-09; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-06-07.

One of the cyberwarfare viruses (Stuxnet, Flame, ??) will spill out and hit civilian US computers in a widespread way before 2022. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-30; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-02.

Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021 ( 21% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.

My Little Pony: Friendship is Magic season 3 will open with a two-part episode ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Grognor on 2012-05-29; known on 2012-11-16; judged right by Grognor on 2012-09-14.

Facebook will fall as low as $15 in 2012 ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-29; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

Stock market will not crash before the next US presidential elections ( 94% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by ufo42 on 2012-05-28; known on 2012-11-08; judged right by gwern on 2012-11-07.

Facebook won't buy Opera (the browser) in 2012 ( 77% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.

Apple TV to debut in December 2012 —Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.

The tentative announcement of possible technological civilizations outside our solar system will precede widely-accepted confirmation of extraterrestrial life within our own solar system. (based on announcements in peer-reviewed jounals) ( 23% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-05-25; known on 2020-01-01.

Tentative announcements of the discovery of intelligent life in other solar systems will appear in peer reviewed journals by 2020. ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-05-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

If I donate blood today, then I will feel sick afterward. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-25; known on 2012-05-26; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-25.

The movie Prometheus will do better than expected (4 wk gross > 168m @ HSX) ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-25; known on 2012-07-15; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-07-06.

> 500m will use Windows 8 by end of 2013 — Steve Ballmer ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-25; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.

Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032 ( 70% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-25; known on 2032-01-01.

Shaq will not be Orlando Magic's GM ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-24; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-07-06.

Emanuel Rylke will not get a job within the next 2 years ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by lukas on 2012-05-24; known on 2014-05-24; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2014-01-24.

My MCT Oil will arrive on or before my birthday. ( 100% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-22; known on 2012-06-08; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-30.

My MCT Oil will arrive on or before 05/30/2012. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-22; known on 2012-05-30; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-30.

My Anki flashcard deck will exceed 3,000 cards before July, 2012. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-22; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-30.

I will complete The Command Line Crash Course by Zed A. Shaw within a week from now. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-22; known on 2012-05-29; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-29.

I will achieve a passing score on both practice tests. ( 65% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-22; known on 2012-05-24; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-22.

I will achieve a passing score on practice test #2. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-22; known on 2012-05-30; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-30.

I will achieve a passing score on practice test #1. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-22; known on 2012-05-22; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-22.

Google will get involved in a case brought by European regulators for antitrust or privacy issues before mid 2013 ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-22; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-05-27.

NY taxi fares will go up > 15% by end of the year. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-22; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-07-13.

Skyfall (James Bond movie) will do worse than expected (4 wk gross < 170m @ HSX) ( 65% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-22; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-27.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-21; known on 2012-05-21; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-21.

I will complete chapter 18 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. ( 100% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-21; known on 2012-05-21; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-21.

I will complete chapter 17 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. ( 100% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-20; known on 2012-05-20; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-20.

GB will out-medal Aus in the 2012 olympic games ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-05-20; known on 2012-08-11; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-08-11.

Facebook will fall below it's offering price ($38) next week ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-19; known on 2012-05-26; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-05-21.

“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-05-19; known on 2030-01-01.

India will overtake US as Facebook's biggest market by end of 2015 — CNBC, Gartner ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-17; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-29.

I'll organize another LW-meetup this year. ( 70% confidence )

Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-05-16; known on 2012-11-16; judged right by wallowinmaya on 2012-11-15.

I will complete my Anki physics deck and merge it with my master deck within the next 10 hours. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-16; known on 2012-05-16; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-16.

I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 100% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-16; known on 2012-05-16; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-16.

I will complete chapter 16 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. ( 100% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-16; known on 2012-05-16; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-16.

App Store revenues will break $10,000 for the first 30 days after app launch. ( 10% confidence )

Created by gsaines on 2012-05-16; known on 2012-06-26; judged right by gsaines on 2012-07-01.

Batman the Dark Knight Rises will do worse than expected (4wk gross < 415m on HSX) ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-14; known on 2012-08-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-09-13.

Conditional on working any days, Grognor will work 1<=x<=14 months for Walmart. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-05-14; known on 2013-08-14; judged right by Grognor on 2013-02-27.

The movie Battleship will do worse than expected (4wk gross < 107.2m per HSX) ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-06-12.

Avengers will outgross Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 2 (global box office > 1.32b) ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-06-05.

Avengers will outgross Titanic (global box office > 2.18b) ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by davidiach on 2012-10-30.

Avengers will outgross Avatar (global box office > 2.78b) ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by davidiach on 2012-10-30.

Eduardo Saverin will un-renounce or try to regain his US citizenship sometime in his life ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13; known on 2072-12-31.

Europe will abandon austerity policy by end of 2013 ( 65% confidence; 6 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-07-07.

Rondo will end up with more career playoff triple doubles than Larry Bird (he'll pass Bird by 2015) ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13; known on 2015-07-01.

There'll be another big trader loss incident (involving over $1b in losses) reported before end of 2013 ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.

Apple long-rumored TV product will not arrive in 2012 ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-12; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.

The US will default on its debt in 2013 — Matthew Yglesias ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.

I will still be alive in 2078. ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-11; known on 2078-01-01.

Gold has peaked for the next 5 years (spot gold < 1900 until 1-1-2017) ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.

There'll be no iPad Mini in 2012 ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-10; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-10-23.

Rutaesomn will offer to send me some free pills. ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-05-10; known on 2012-06-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-06-10.

Greece will have another election by end of June, 2012 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-10; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-06-18.

I will die by non-suicide means by the end of 2012. ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Grognor on 2012-05-10; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

Statistics

Recent Predictions