pirateat40 will win his bet with vandroiy that BTCST will not default, as judged by nanotube

Created by gwern on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-09-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-05.

• gwern estimated 65% on 2012-07-08
• gwern on 2012-07-08
• gwern said “bet records, rules: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91661.msg1013607#msg1013607 basic background: pirateat40’s high interest rate on deposits fuels accusation of being a Ponzi scheme” on 2012-07-08
• gwern estimated 45% and said “more background: http://bitcoinmagazine.net/ponzi-schemes-the-danger-of-high-interest-savings-funds/ dropping based on http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/wpcdv/confused_about_the_7895_btcusd_bubble_answers/” on 2012-07-17
• gwern said “Fund is closing: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101339.0 week from monday; changing closure date likewise” on 2012-08-19
• gwern said “more relevant links: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101942.0 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101958.0 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101339.msg1107919” on 2012-08-20
• gwern said “one forumite is claiming a pre-closing withdrawal is apparently not yet being honored, which may constitute a default. the lack of visible pirateat40 activity makes it look even more like a ponzi, but there’s still time yet…” on 2012-08-22
• gwern said “changing date to sep 3rd per https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91661.msg1139276#msg1139276” on 2012-08-28
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2012-08-28” on 2012-08-28
• gwern said “default? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=104221.msg1141488#msg1141488” on 2012-08-29
• gwern said “nanotube has officially judged against pirate: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=91661.msg1147937#msg1147937 marking wrong” on 2012-09-05
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-09-05.