NFL: Pittsburgh Steelers will beat Cleveland Browns in Week 12 of the 2012 Season ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-22; known on 2012-11-28; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-26.

NFL: Dallas Cowboys will beat Washington Redskins in Week 12 of the 2012 Season ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-22; known on 2012-11-28; judged wrong by dwibby on 2012-11-23.

NFL: Seattle Seahawks will beat Miami Dolphins in Week 12 of the 2012 Season ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-22; known on 2012-11-28; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-26.

Mars rover SAM instrument discovers live microorganisms in Martian soil. ( 11% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Samm on 2013-04-26.

Mars rover SAM instrument discovers methane in Martian atmosphere. ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

LSD microdosing experiment: pair 4: placebo then active? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-11-19; known on 2012-11-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-11-19.

Superman 2 will do worse than expected (4wk gross < HSX @ 227.53) ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomMovie on 2012-11-19; known on 2013-07-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-07-31.

Ironman 3 will do worse than expected (4wk gross < HSX @ 322.2m) ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomMovie on 2012-11-19; known on 2013-06-15; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-03.

NL: Housing price will have fallen > 8% year on year in Dec '13 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by dhoe on 2012-11-18; known on 2013-12-25; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-12-25.

NL: The second Rutte cabinet will last less than 2 years ( 70% confidence )

Created by dhoe on 2012-11-18; known on 2014-11-06; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.

“Anonymous” ORCA hack claim will make Fox News headlines in the next two weeks. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-18; known on 2012-12-02; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-24.

HP:MoR: Review-count of MoR to surpass UC within 2 years ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-11-16; known on 2014-11-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-11-16.

HP:MoR: Review-count of MoR to surpass UC within a year. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-11-16; known on 2013-11-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-16.

DWibby's Week 11 NFL predictions based on intuitive confidence scale (rated from 0-5, and mapped to 50-100% at 10% intervals) will be at least 5% less than true accuracy at each 10% interval. ( 80% confidence; 15 comments )

Created by dwibby on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-20; judged wrong by dwibby on 2012-11-20.

NFL: Chicago Bears will beat San Francisco 49ers in Week 11 of the 2012 Season ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by dwibby on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-20; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-20.

Average 7 day ROI across all B AW Cs will be >200% within 3 weeks. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Matt on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-12-07; judged wrong by Matt on 2012-12-07.

St. Louis Rams will beat New York Jets in Week 11 of the 2012 NFL Season ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by dwibby on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-18; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-19.

NFL: Miami Dolphins will beat Buffalo Bills in Week 11 of the 2012 Season ( 80% confidence )

Created by dwibby on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-16; judged wrong by dwibby on 2012-11-16.

NFL: Miami will cover against Buffalo on 11/15 (Buffalo favored by 1). ( 59% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-16; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-16.

Bitcoin will be exchanged at a rate higher than $17/BTC at the end of November, 2012. ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by tedks on 2012-11-15; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-01.

If I donate blood today, then I will feel sick within 60 minutes afterwards. ( 66% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-11-15; known on 2012-11-16; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-11-16.

Nobody will answer my SO question (http://stackoverflow.com/q/13387898/560791) with an answer that fixes the problem (i.e., allows the agent to run the main logic) within 48 hours. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Porejide on 2012-11-14; known on 2012-11-16; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-11-15.

It'll be reported that FBI didn't get a search warrant to access Broadwell's gmail account ( 65% confidence; 8 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-01-11.

I will receive a certificate of completion for ‘Think Again: How to Reason and Argue’. ( 25% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-11-13; known on 2013-03-02; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-03-04.

do coze workshop ( 75% confidence )

Created by The_sacred_Sponge on 2012-11-13; known on 2012-11-16; judged wrong by The_sacred_Sponge on 2012-11-17.

at least 5 birthday emails ( 70% confidence )

Created by The_sacred_Sponge on 2012-11-13; known on 2012-11-17; judged wrong by The_sacred_Sponge on 2012-11-17.

Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA. ( 24% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Nadanate on 2012-11-13; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.

There'll be a popular Android tablet sold for less than $50 (as standard pricing) before 2015 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.

Obama's approval rating will exceed 55% on average for the next 12 months (Nov 12 -> Nov 13) ( 46% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-16.

I will use predictionbook at least 5 times in the next month ( 80% confidence )

Created by ohAitch on 2012-11-10; known on 2012-12-10; judged wrong by ohAitch on 2012-12-10.

In the 2014 election, someone will make a serious run for Congress, Senate or Governor as a secessionist ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-09; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-12-01.

By 2020, Puerto Rico will be admitted to the Union ( 39% confidence; 18 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

Tori Dykes' tweet (https://twitter.com/toridykes/status/266032621690171392) will not reach 2,000 RTs by Sunday. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by alecbrooks on 2012-11-09; known on 2012-11-11; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-11-11.

The Democratic candidate takes Georgia in 2016 ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-09; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.

The Democratic candidate takes North Carolina in 2016. ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-09; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.

I will try either Acme, Emacs, or both over the coming year. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by alecbrooks on 2012-11-09; known on 2013-11-09; judged wrong by alecbrooks on 2013-11-18.

Obama's not going to officially approve of the legalization of pot in Colorado and Washington ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08; known on 2013-12-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-08-29.

Nate Silver will become a public expert on climate change statistics by the year 2016 ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

I will finish khanacademy by the end of this month. (380 out of 380 oncepts or more) http://www.khanacademy.org/profile/hackerkiba I have completed 323 out of 380 by November 7th 2012. Given that I seem to progressed at 2 concepts per day in order to rea ( 85% confidence )

Created by kiba on 2012-11-07; known on 2012-11-30; judged wrong by kiba on 2012-12-27.

The 2016 presidential election will be Jeb Bush v. Hillary Clinton. Yes, again! ( 14% confidence; 27 wagers; 16 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.

After a period of cognitive dissonance, a sizable part of the press will start referring to the US as a “center-left” country during the Obama term. ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.

The US economy will be “worse” in 2016 than in 2012 (i.e. both R and D Presidential candidates will say the economy is worse) ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jach on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Jach on 2017-01-03.

Romney will cooperate with Obama on some political initiative in 2013 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-07-07.

New York Knicks #2 ranked offense and defense will both fall out of the top ten by the end of January, according to basketball-reference (http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/NYK/2013.html). ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 21 comments )

Created by fistpo on 2012-11-06; known on 2013-02-01; judged wrong by fistpo on 2013-02-01.

Valerie Jarett will not be White House Chief of Staff ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-06; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-06-02.

At least one major broadcaster will have to retract its calling a state for a particular candidate within a week after the election tomorrow. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-06; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-27.

David Axelrod will not shave his mustache within a month. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-05; known on 2012-12-07; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-24.