HP:MoR: Review-count of MoR to surpass UC within a year.

Created by gwern on 2012-11-16; known on 2013-11-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-16.

• gwern estimated 40% on 2012-11-16
• gwern said “http://www.fanfiction.net/s/6496709/1/Unexpected_Circumstances current 24163 reviews vs MoR current 18911; see http://lesswrong.com/lw/7sc/siai_vs_fhi_achievements_20082010/596g” on 2012-11-16
• gwern said “in 2 years: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/10023” on 2012-11-16
• gwern estimated 20% and said “more pessimistic after modeling: http://www.gwern.net/hpmor#the-review-race-unexpected-circumstances-versus-mor” on 2012-11-17
• alecbrooks estimated 15% and said “Gwern’s model seems sound.” on 2012-11-21
• gwern said “UC: 24,724; MoR: 22,762; UC won” on 2013-11-16
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-11-16.