PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

XiXi: 6 ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2013-02-27; known on 2013-02-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-02-27.

XiXi: 5 ( 10% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2013-02-27; known on 2013-02-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-02-27.

XiXi: 4 ( 10% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2013-02-27; known on 2013-02-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-02-27.

XiXi: 3 ( 10% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2013-02-27; known on 2013-02-27; judged right by gwern on 2013-02-27.

XiXi: 2 ( 30% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2013-02-27; known on 2013-02-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-02-27.

XiXi: 1 ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2013-02-27; known on 2013-02-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-02-27.

Alex Jones will be implicated in an illicit drug scandal by the end of 2013. ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Digglerson on 2013-02-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.

Alex Jones will be implicated in a sex scandal by the end of 2013. ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Digglerson on 2013-02-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.

LSD microdosing experiment: pair 18: placebo then active? ( 60% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2013-02-26; known on 2013-02-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-02-26.

feds take down silk road within a year ,from a undercover agent selling ids and monitoring emails ( 26% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by ledzep6551 on 2013-02-26; known on 2013-07-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-07-31.

Silk Road: there will have been a bust (>10 named defendants) related to forged IDs eg. driver's licenses, linked to the SR vendor KingOfClubs ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-02-25; known on 2015-03-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-03-31.

EU-Ukraine association agreement to be signed in 2013 (probably Nov.) ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by simplicio on 2013-02-25; known on 2013-12-01; judged wrong by simplicio on 2014-01-02.

Chuck Hagel will be confirmed as Secretary of Defense within one month of this prediction. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25; known on 2013-03-25; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-02-26.

By January 1, 2014 I will have published at least one paper that involves Artin representations where I am the sole author. ( 48% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-02-24; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2014-01-16.

By January 1, 2025, it will be proven that any odd perfect number is divisible by the sixth power of some prime. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-02-24; known on 2025-01-01.

Anne Hathaway will win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoaoEira on 2013-02-24; known on 2013-02-25; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-02-25.

The Partito Democratico (PD) will win the next election (24/25 of February) in Italy ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by devas on 2013-02-23; known on 2012-02-27; judged right by devas on 2013-03-06.

The Democratic Party will keep a majority in the US Senate following the 2014 Midterm Elections ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-22; known on 2014-11-05; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2014-11-05.

Daniel Day Lewis will win the Oscar for Best Actor ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-22; known on 2013-02-24; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25.

Tommy Lee Jones will win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-22; known on 2013-02-24; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25.

Argo will win the Oscar Award for Best Picture ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-22; known on 2013-02-24; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25.

The price of bitcoins exceeds $35 on mtgox in the next 30 days. ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by tedks on 2013-02-22; known on 2013-03-24; judged right by nanotube on 2013-03-04.

A referendum on Quebec sovereignty to be held before 2018. ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by simplicio on 2013-02-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-02.

Lakers will trade Kobe Bryant in 2013 or 2014 ( 40% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-02-20; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-01-11.

US minimum wage to be $9 (nominal) or greater by 2015. ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by simplicio on 2013-02-20; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.

“Glasses” computing devices (peripheral or standalone – example: Google Glasses) to have sales of at least 100 million units per year by 2018. ( 50% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by simplicio on 2013-02-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2020-05-15.

Republican presidential candidate in 2016 to be generally perceived as immigration-friendly (described as such by a major news source). ( 30% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by simplicio on 2013-02-20; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-08-05.

USA to initiate trade sanctions or legal action against China for cyber-espionage by 2016. ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by simplicio on 2013-02-20; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.

LSD microdosing experiment: pair 17: placebo then active? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2013-02-20; known on 2013-02-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-02-20.

Bitcoins will be worth more than 50$/coin at the end of 2013. ( 76% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by ChristianKl on 2013-02-18; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by mastermind8189 on 2013-12-28.

I will wake up naturally and feel refreshed and rested by Saturday, due to the 6500K CFL “sun” that is on a timer in my bedroom. ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-02-18; known on 2013-02-23; judged wrong by ashrewdmint on 2013-02-25.

Marco G will attend Story Night II ( 75% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-18; known on 2013-02-19; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.

Ludwig S will attend Story Night II ( 75% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-17; known on 2013-02-18; judged right by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.

Alan will attend Story Night II ( 85% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-17; known on 2013-02-18; judged right by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.

Matt V will attend story night II ( 20% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-17; known on 2013-02-18; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.

SE will attend Story Night II ( 30% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-17; known on 2013-02-18; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.

Rebecca G will attend Story Night II ( 75% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-17; known on 2013-02-18; judged right by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.

Bill K will attend Story Night II ( 75% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-17; known on 2013-02-18; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.

I will quit my night-job before April. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-02-17; known on 2013-04-02; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-03-06.

Oscar Pistorius to be convicted of murder of Reeva Steenkamp. ( 67% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by simplicio on 2013-02-15; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by procran on 2014-01-20.

Charlie vN will attend Story Night II ( 80% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-15; known on 2013-02-18; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.

CVN's gift will be either food-based or snow-based. ( 85% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-15; known on 2013-02-16; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-15.

There is some way to see my older, open, private predictions that are cut off on my user page, but I'm just not seeing it. ( 10% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by nick on 2013-02-15; known on 2013-03-15; judged wrong by nick on 2013-03-14.

USA to begin phase-out of pennies by start of 2016. ( 12% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by simplicio on 2013-02-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-01-01.

More than 1000 French troops remain in Mali at beginning of 2014. ( 20% confidence )

Created by simplicio on 2013-02-13; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by simplicio on 2014-01-02.

The US federal budget sequester (aka “automatic cuts”) will initially take place as planned (though it may or may not be fixed by later retroactive planning). ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-03-01; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-03-01.

LSD microdosing experiment: pair 16: placebo then active? ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-14; judged right by gwern on 2013-02-13.

On The Office (US), the Scranton Strangler will be revealed during the final season to be a character we have seen before on the show. ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by tormey on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-05-17; judged wrong by ShIxtan on 2013-06-30.

Toby will be revealed as the Scranton Strangler in the final season of The Office (US). ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by tormey on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-05-17; judged wrong by ShIxtan on 2013-06-30.

Brian F will attend Story Night II ( 5% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.

Dan B will attend Story Night II ( 5% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.

Tom C will attend Story Night II ( 15% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.

Kimberley S will attend Story Night II ( 10% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.

Michael C will attend Story Night II ( 25% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.

Alexei A will attend Story Night II ( 35% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.

David Garvey will attend Story Night II ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged right by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.

Justin C will attend Story Night II ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged right by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.

Nora N will attend Story Night II ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.

Ambrose F will attend Story Night II ( 65% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.

Jonathan P will attend Story Night II ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged right by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.

Allison K will attend Story Night II ( 80% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged right by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.

Alex D will attend Story Night II ( 85% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged right by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.

Sasha W will attend Story Night II ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged right by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.

Julia G will attend Story Night II ( 85% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged right by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.

Alli (Val's wife) will attend Story Night II ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.

Val will attend Story Night II ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.

Scott R will attend Story Night II ( 95% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged right by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.

Jocelyn B will attend Story Night II ( 95% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged right by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.

I will attend Story Night II ( 100% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged right by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.

Qiaochu will attend Story Night II ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.

Malcolm will attend Story Night II ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.

The next pope will be a white male. ( 69% confidence; 22 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-02-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by simplicio on 2013-03-13.

23andme will have processed my sample within 6 weeks of receiving it ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by dhoe on 2013-02-12; known on 2013-02-15; judged right by dhoe on 2013-02-14.

weirderweb.com will get a book deal. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ZrCa on 2013-02-12; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by John Maxwell IV on 2014-07-01.

Logs from Tesla Motors will vindicate Elon Musk and the Tesla Model S. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by alecbrooks on 2013-02-12; known on 2013-03-01; judged wrong by procran on 2013-06-14.

Pope Benedict XVI resigned for reasons other than his health, and this will be confirmed by reliable news sources. ( 18% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by stephenh on 2013-02-11; known on 2014-02-11; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-13.

The recently resigned pope will announce he is an atheist ( 0% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-02-11; known on 2013-05-11; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2013-05-11.

Chuck Hagel will be confirmed as the Secretary of Defense within two weeks of this prediction. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-11; known on 2013-02-25; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25.

Marc Ouellet will be the next Pope. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by halfwaytogallifrey on 2013-02-11; known on 2013-04-30; judged wrong by simplicio on 2013-03-13.

There will be a new book review on FraVerus.com by the end of March 15th. ( 50% confidence )

Created by halfwaytogallifrey on 2013-02-11; known on 2013-03-16; judged wrong by halfwaytogallifrey on 2013-03-16.

Iceland will become a major port for goods transported across the Northwest Passage. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by halfwaytogallifrey on 2013-02-11; known on 2028-02-11.

Regardless of the outcome of the Dorner manhunt, drones will be praised for their value in said manhunt by at least one news outlet monitored by the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism within one year of today. ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by halfwaytogallifrey on 2013-02-11; known on 2014-02-11; judged wrong by halfwaytogallifrey on 2014-02-11.

In the next 3 days, fewer than 4 different users will make top-level comments that introduce new research in this thread: http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/fmy/lw_women_crowdsourced_research_on_cognitive/ ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by John Maxwell IV on 2013-02-11; known on 2013-02-14; judged wrong by John Maxwell IV on 2013-02-14.

Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, “How to create a mind”) ( 25% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-02-08; known on 2029-01-02.

China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023. ( 7% confidence; 23 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-02-08; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2023-01-02.

The Republicans will keep their US House majority after the 2014 elections ( 56% confidence; 12 wagers )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-07; known on 2014-12-01; judged right by kuudes on 2014-11-22.

Electoral Vote Predictor (run by Andrew Tannenbaum) will come back in 2014. (http://www.electoral-vote.com/) ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by alecbrooks on 2013-02-07; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-05.

By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000 ( 60% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-02-07; known on 2064-01-01.

I will get a list article published at Cracked.com by 31/12/2020. ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by najdorf on 2013-02-06; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by najdorf on 2021-01-03.

Western Australia will secede from the Commonwealth of Australia by the end of 2025. ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by najdorf on 2013-02-06; known on 2025-12-31.

LSD microdosing experiment: pair 15: placebo then active? ( 65% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2013-02-06; known on 2013-02-07; judged right by gwern on 2013-02-06.

EY posts something on “The Open Problem of Loeb-Tiling AI” within three months ( 49% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by papermachine on 2013-02-06; known on 2013-05-06; judged right by papermachine on 2013-05-06.

EY posts something on “The Open Problem of Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics” within three months. ( 37% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by papermachine on 2013-02-06; known on 2013-05-06; judged right by Malo on 2013-04-29.

Less than one hundred comments on the uncensored LW thread in a month. http://www.reddit.com/r/LessWrong/comments/17y819/lw_uncensored_thread/ ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by papermachine on 2013-02-05; known on 2013-03-16; judged wrong by moridinamael on 2013-02-07.

Celtics will make the playoffs ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by fistpo on 2013-02-02; known on 2013-04-18; judged right by fistpo on 2013-04-18.

Voice recognition software will be capable of replacing the average court stenographer in five years. ( 31% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by lavalamp on 2013-02-02; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2018-02-01.

England win the six nations ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by alanog on 2013-02-02; known on 2013-03-17; judged wrong by alanog on 2013-03-17.

LSD microdosing experiment: pair 14: placebo then active? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2013-01-31; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-31.

Hilary Clinton will not be running for President in the 2016 Presidential Election ( 45% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-30; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.

I will reach 200 followers on Twitter by the end of 2013. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by alecbrooks on 2013-01-29; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by alecbrooks on 2014-01-01.

Statistics

Recent Predictions