Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, “How to create a mind”)

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-02-08; known on 2029-01-02

• Tuxedage estimated 8% on 2013-02-08
• Tuxedage changed the deadline from “on 2014-01-02” on 2013-02-08
• dusk estimated 30% on 2013-02-10
• procran estimated 1% on 2013-02-10
• Slahzer estimated 55% on 2013-02-10
• ashrewdmint estimated 5% on 2013-02-13
• Houshalter estimated 98% on 2013-02-15
• Jayson Virissimo said “What constitutes ‘human level’? Care to name a easily verifiable sufficient condition?” on 2013-02-17
• PaulS estimated 5% on 2013-02-25
• Qiaochu estimated 1% and said “I expect this to be false even with a very generous definition of “human level.” Anyone who thinks this is reasonably likely should be donating to MIRI like crazy… ” on 2013-02-25
• halfwit estimated 20% on 2013-06-10
• PseudonymousUser estimated 38% on 2015-12-31
• PseudonymousUser estimated 25% on 2015-12-31
• PseudonymousUser estimated 24% and said “Lots of recent advances in reinforcement learning, bayesian optimization, computer vision. But we still have a long way to go with transfer learning and NLP.” on 2016-01-02
• themusicgod1 estimated 50% on 2016-10-10
• timmartin estimated 10% on 2017-11-05
• PseudonymousUser estimated 35% on 2020-07-13
• Baeboo estimated 23% on 2020-07-13
• n99 estimated 1% on 2022-10-28