Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Joe Biden ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[Hong Kong's 2020 Tiananmen Square Incident commemoration vigil] to be canceled/banned ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-05; judged right by Cato on 2020-06-05.
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[Hong Kong's 2020 Tiananmen Square Incident commemoration vigil] attendance to exceed that of 2019, conditional on vigil being held ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-05.
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Federal Reserve cuts rate by 25bps on September FOMC meeting ( 90% confidence )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-18; judged right by batemancapital on 2019-09-19.
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SoftBank stock suffers 50% correction from its all-time-high by end of 2020 ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] More than 6h15m ( 15% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 6h00m and 6h15m ( 10% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 5h45m and 6h00m ( 10% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 5h30m and 5h45m ( 15% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 5h15m and 5h30m ( 15% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 5h00m and 5h15m ( 15% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 4h45m and 5h00m ( 10% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 4h30m and 4h45m ( 8% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Less than 4h30m ( 2% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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No WeWork IPO in 2019 ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-09-16; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by batemancapital on 2019-12-23.
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Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 20 years. ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2019-09-15; known on 2039-09-15.
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Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 10 years. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2019-09-15; known on 2029-09-15.
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Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 5 years. ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by krazemon on 2019-09-15; known on 2024-09-15.
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The Hong Kong protests will have a turnout exceeding 1 million people on Saturday, August 31 2019. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-08-31; known on 2019-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-03.
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There will be a crocs movie before 2040. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-08-29; known on 2040-01-01.
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The world gross product of 2099 will not be less than the world gross product of 2020. ( 89% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-08-29; known on 2100-01-01.
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The average age of death for humans in 2099 is not going to be lower than 70 years. ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-08-29; known on 2100-01-01.
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I am not going to die as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change. ( 99% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-08-29; known on 3000-01-01.
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Humanity is not going to go extinct before 2200 because of anthropogenic climate change. ( 97% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-08-29; known on 2200-01-01.
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Hong Kong Dollar will not break peg in 2019 or 2020 ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-08-29; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.
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Person sitting next to me will still be staring at phone in half an hour. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by wizzwizz4 on 2019-08-26; known on 2019-08-26; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-08-26.
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[US politics] Andrew Yang to participate in the fifth Democratic primary debate (November 2019) ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-26; known on 2019-11-21; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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Data-centers get carbon taxed by the end of 2021 ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by predoindk on 2019-08-25; known on 2021-12-31; judged right by stepan on 2022-01-02.
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At least one war breaks out between countries due to (perceived) inaction / exacerbation of climate change before 2030 ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by predoindk on 2019-08-25; known on 2030-12-31.
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At least one chief executive of any large fossil fuel / oil / mining company will be assassinated before 2025 due to ( perceived ) culpability. ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by predoindk on 2019-08-25; known on 2025-12-31.
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The High Court of Australia will grant special leave to appeal from the decision in Pell v The Queen 2019 VSCA 186 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2019-08-24; known on 2020-06-30; judged right by sjy on 2020-04-09.
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Polar Bears will go extinct in the wild before 2025 ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predoindk on 2019-08-23; known on 2025-08-16.
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The Amazon rainforest fire triggers an irreversible catastrophic ecological collapse ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by predoindk on 2019-08-23; known on 2024-08-16.
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There'll be a global average “dip” in the rate of population increase directly attributable to people voluntarily forgoing having kids due to climate change fears ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predoindk on 2019-08-23; known on 2020-08-16; judged wrong by jamesrom on 2020-08-17.
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Climate change news related psychological disorders (including stress and anxiety induced by news) spawns a new branch of psychiatry ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predoindk on 2019-08-23; known on 2020-08-16; judged wrong by jamesrom on 2020-08-17.
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The Amazon Rainforest fire makes at least two tribal languages extinct ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by predoindk on 2019-08-23; known on 2020-08-16; judged wrong by jamesrom on 2020-08-17.
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Treasury bonds yield ends lower for the day after Powell delivers Jackson Hole speech ( 65% confidence )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-08-22; known on 2019-08-23; judged right by batemancapital on 2019-08-23.
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sha256 b7ef0c292e294fa4a8a61db591b60d35b5afa21260c3b2e7a9c0c4da45b675f3 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2019-08-17; known on 2019-08-17; judged wrong by Somni on 2019-08-17.
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Saudi Aramco's IPO valuation to be less than $2 trillion, conditional on IPO before 2020 EOY ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-13.
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There will be more than 5 Metaculus domains on 14 Jan 2020 ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-08-14; known on 2020-01-14; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-01-25.
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Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022 ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-08-12; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-01-01.
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AMD 3rd Gen Mobile Processors will reduce power consumption by at least 20% from the prior generation ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2019-08-11; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by lettergram on 2020-01-13.
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AMD 3rd Gen Mobile Processors will be released Q2 2020 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lettergram on 2019-08-11; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by lettergram on 2020-01-13.
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The Collatz Conjecture will not be proven/disproven this year ( 99% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-08-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[Politics] Martial law to be declared in at least part of Hong Kong by October 2019 EOM ( 23% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9 ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-02-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8 ( 81% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-02-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7 ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-02-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6 ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-02-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5 ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-02-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7 ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9 ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8 ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7 ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6 ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5 ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7 ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9 ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8 ( 84% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7 ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6 ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5 ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7 ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9 ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-02.
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[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8 ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-02.
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[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7 ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-02.
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[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6 ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-02.
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[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5 ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-02.
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[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7 ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-02.
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Collision between Chinese and US naval vessels or military aircraft by 2020-07-31 ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-01; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-15.
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Collision between Chinese and Taiwanese naval vessels or military aircraft by 2020-07-31 ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-01; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-15.
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[Fighting] Claressa Shields to have a professional MMA bout by 2020-07-31 ( 57% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-01; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 20 ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 19 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 18 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 17 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 16 ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 15 ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 14 ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 13 ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 12 ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 11 ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 10 ( 38% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 9 ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 8 ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 7 ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 6 ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 5 ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 4 ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Fighting] Rico Verhoeven to beat Badr Hari in their December 2019 fight ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-12-22; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-23.
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[Fighting] Rico Verhoeven and Badr Hari to fight as scheduled on 2019-12-21 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-12-22; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-23.
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[Politics] At least one Democrat to withdraw/suspend candidacy by August 2019 EOM ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-08-31; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-16.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 7 ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 6 ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 5 ( 26% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 4 ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 3 ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.