Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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China builds a moonbase by 2028 ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-05; known on 2028-01-01.
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SpaceX Starship to not have any crewed launches before 2030. ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-15; known on 2030-01-01.