Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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At end of March break, my school will be on full masking. ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-08; known on 2022-03-29; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-29.
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By Feb 1, 2027, clear that massive reduction in fertility due to Covid vaccines. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-19; known on 2027-02-02.
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New lettered variant of covid announced by February 20th, 2022. ( 21% confidence; 20 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-16; known on 2022-03-05; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2022-02-24.
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CDC official count of at least one million official covid deaths in the US by October 1, 2022. ( 85% confidence; 26 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-14; known on 2022-10-02; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-05-26.
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No Blue state to be in the top 5 for per a capita deaths from Covid by January 1, 2023. ( 54% confidence; 13 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-12; known on 2023-01-02; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-28.
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New South Wales has 25,000 COVID cases a day by late January ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sjy on 2021-12-30; known on 2022-02-01; judged right by kronicd on 2022-01-04.
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Australia has 200,000 COVID cases a day by late January ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sjy on 2021-12-30; known on 2022-02-01; judged wrong by sjy on 2022-02-02.
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People will need a 2nd vaccine booster shot within 4 months of receiving their first booster shot. #secondbooster #vaccineboosters ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by julietierney14 on 2021-12-28; known on 2022-01-28; judged wrong by michaelchen on 2022-02-22.
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Covid vaccines will be recognized as causing ongoing health issues of at least 3 months duration in from 1 in 500 and 1 in 5000 vaccinated individuals ( 22% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2021-12-26; known on 2030-01-01.
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SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant will be generally considered a lab leak before 2024 ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2021-12-23; known on 2024-01-01.
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Within 5 years of initial release of mRNA vaccines, they will be recognized to cause serious side effects lasting >6 months in at least 1 in 5000 cases. ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2021-12-22; known on 2026-01-01.
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Omicron will be the majority strain in the US by the end of January ( 95% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2021-12-07; known on 2022-02-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2022-02-01.
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No widespread (>1%) issues with fertility as a result of the COVID-19 vaccine (e.g. pfizer) will be known (i.e. reported by reputable US based source e.g. NYT,FDA or equivalent) by 2022. ( 96% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ghodith on 2021-05-14; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by Ghodith on 2022-01-01.
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[Covid origin:] Definitive evidence will be found concerning an accidental lab escape by 2023 ( 28% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.