Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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Joe Rogan will not lose his Spotify podcast (e.g., Spotify will not ask him or force him to step away) in 2022. ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by adanvers on 2022-03-31; known on 2022-12-31; judged right by adanvers on 2023-01-01.
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The 7-day moving average of Covid deaths (as tracked by the New York Times) will be less than 1000 people on April 4, 2022. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by adanvers on 2022-03-31; known on 2022-04-04; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-10.
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Created by adanvers on 2022-03-31; known on 2022-12-31.
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Alaska bill SB140, which “would ban trans girls and women from participating in sports in accordance with their gender identity” will pass in 2022. ( 75% confidence )
Created by adanvers on 2022-03-31; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by adanvers on 2023-01-01.
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Russian government blocks access to Wikipedia ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-31; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.
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The Biden administration officially claims that Russia has attempted to interfere in the 2024 US presidential election ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-30; known on 2025-01-31.
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I leave the country before mosh starts. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Wineormilk on 2022-03-29; known on 2022-06-28; judged wrong by Wineormilk on 2022-08-15.
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No Blue state to be in the top 5 for per a capita deaths from Covid on January 1, 2023. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-28; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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Donald Trump will be elected president in 2024. ( 34% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Wineormilk on 2022-03-27; known 12 days ago.
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I will have put online an experiment by next weekend. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Ygg on 2022-03-27; known on 2022-04-01; judged wrong by Ygg on 2022-04-03.
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GDP growth will not resume to the pre-covid trajectory. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Ygg on 2022-03-27; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-04.
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Odessa will not be invaded by Russia by April 3rd ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Ygg on 2022-03-27; known on 2022-04-03; judged right by Ygg on 2022-04-03.
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Shoigu remains as Russian Minister of Defense until the end of Putin's current term. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-27; known on 2024-05-01.
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Los Angeles indoor mask mandate is in effect any time between now and Jan 2023 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-25; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.
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we will sit at the same table in the bryn mawr room. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Wineormilk on 2022-03-22; known on 2022-03-27; judged wrong by Wineormilk on 2022-03-29.
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Any movie will win 6 or more Oscars at the 94th Academy Awards ceremony. ( 18% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-21; known on 2022-03-28; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-28.
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Biden to announce a No Fly Zone while in Europe. ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-21; known on 2024-04-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-05-14.
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DATE > SEX: I will have sex with Karla ( 55% confidence )
Created by pancakemouse on 2022-03-20; known on 2022-03-21; judged right by pancakemouse on 2022-03-21.
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Ukraine to surrender to Russia by May 1st. ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-18; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-05-01.
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I can revise predictions on this site ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Oscar142857 on 2022-03-18; known on 2022-03-19; judged right by Oscar142857 on 2022-03-18.
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'Morbius' will gross $50 million or more on opening weekend in the USA ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-18; known on 2022-04-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-04.
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Russian stock market is open on Monday, March 28 2022 ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-18; known on 2022-03-29; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-29.
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Russian stock market is open on Monday, March 21 2022 ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-18; known on 2022-03-22; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-21.
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An earthquake measuring 8.0 or above will occur anywhere on Earth before June 1, 2022 ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-17; known on 2022-06-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-01.
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China attempts a full scale invasion of Taiwan in 2022. ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by atzeje on 2022-03-16; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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I will cross the 15,000 copies-sold mark for Mind Management, Not Time Management by the end of May 2022 ( 70% confidence )
Created by kadavy on 2022-03-15; known on 2022-06-01; judged right by kadavy on 2022-05-05.
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The Biden administration officially claims that China has provided military assistance to Russia for its invasion in Ukraine ( 30% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-14; known on 2025-01-20.
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Ukrainian military personnel fly Poland's MiG-29s into Ukraine ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-10; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.
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Russia won't be disconnected from global internet as of Mar 11, 2022 ( 98% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by denisp on 2022-03-10; known on 2022-03-12; judged right by denisp on 2022-03-12.
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NATO will have more than 30 full member states before January 1, 2023, ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-09; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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I will pray at least five times on Wednesday, March 9, with each of the five prayers spaced at least 30 minutes apart ( 95% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-03-09; known on 2022-03-10; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-03-12.
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I will go to bed by 11pm EST on Wednesday, March 9 ( 95% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-03-09; known on 2022-03-10; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-03-12.
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I will exercise for at least 30 min by 9pm EST on Wednesday, March 9 ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-03-09; known on 2022-03-10; judged wrong by God on 2022-04-01.
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Russian sovereign debt default by May 1, 2022 ( 47% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-09; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-02.
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US to deliver Poland's MiG fighter jets to Ukraine ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-08; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.
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The closing price of a barrel of crude oil will be $115 or more on March 15, 2022 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-08; known on 2022-03-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-16.
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I will complete at least six Pomodori on Tuesday, March 8 by 10pm EST on non-EA tasks ( 80% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-03-08; known on 2022-03-10; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-03-09.
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I will exercise for at least 30 min by 9pm EST on Tuesday, March 8 ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-03-08; known on 2022-03-09; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-03-09.
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I will go to bed by 11pm EST on Tuesday, March 8 ( 95% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-03-08; known on 2022-03-09; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-03-09.
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I will pray at least five times on Tuesday, March 8, with each of the five prayers spaced at least 30 minutes apart ( 95% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-03-08; known on 2022-03-09; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-03-09.
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At end of March break, my school will be on full masking. ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-08; known on 2022-03-29; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-29.
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Danes will vote yes to abolish Denmark's opt-out from EU's common security and defense policy ( 70% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-07; known on 2022-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-01.
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Congress authorizes a deal to send F-16s to Poland in exchange for Poland sending Soviet-era fighter jets to Ukraine ( 29% confidence; 12 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-06; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.
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Russian-Ukrainian War – Will Russia control Lviv as of 2nd April, 2022? ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-03-06; known on 2022-04-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-04-03.
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(The Hurt Locker) The young guy will die. ( 60% confidence )
Created by rlourie on 2022-03-06; known on 2022-03-06; judged wrong by rlourie on 2022-03-06.
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Ethereum price will reach a new all time high in 2022 ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-05; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-01.
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Lee Jae-myung will win the 2022 presidential election of Republic of Korea. ( 70% confidence )
Created by ysc on 2022-03-05; known on 2022-03-10; judged wrong by ysc on 2022-03-09.
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Putin runs for President of Russia again in 2024 ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-01; known on 2024-05-07.
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Putin serves as President of Russia for the remainder of his current term ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-01; known on 2024-05-07.
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I will be in bed before midnight each night this week ( 30% confidence )
Created by Ben on 2022-02-28; known on 2022-03-04; judged wrong by God on 2022-04-01.
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Cease fire this week holds for > 24 hours ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Ben on 2022-02-28; known on 2022-03-05; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-03-16.
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Russia has conquered Kyiv before deadline ( 13% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-27; known on 2022-03-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-03-04.
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Russia stops delivering gas to Germany before deadline ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-27; known on 2022-03-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-03-02.
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[I will be back home] never (won't make it back home) ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Issa Rice on 2022-02-27; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2022-03-10.
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[I will be back home] after March 31, 2022 ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2022-02-27; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2022-03-10.
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[I will be back home] between March 18, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive) ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2022-02-27; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2022-03-10.
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[I will be back home] between March 4, 2022 and March 17, 2022 (inclusive) ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2022-02-27; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2022-03-10.
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[I will be back home] on or before March 3, 2022 ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2022-02-27; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2022-03-10.
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By 2032, it will be generally accepted among neuroscientists that the brain substantially relies on non-quantum substrate-dependent computations. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sty.silver on 2022-02-26; known on 2032-01-01.
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Russia is disallowed from competing in the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 by start of April. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-26; known on 2022-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-04-02.
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World – Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2022? ( 30% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-26; known on 2022-06-01; judged right by amadeu on 2022-05-26.
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Russian-Ukrainian War – Will Russia control Kyiv as of April 2, 2022 ( 27% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-26; known on 2022-04-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-04-03.
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Russia negotiates a peace deal with Zelenskyy government by March 30, 2022 and abides by it for at least one year ( 22% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-02-25; known on 2023-03-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-03.
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World – Will any new country become members of NATO in 2022? ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-25; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.
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Politics, Finland – Finland starts process to join NATO by end of 2022 ( 61% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.
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Tech – Will Beeminder deem it prudent to make it harder to turn No-Excuses Mode back off after you opt in to it, by deadline? ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-05-06; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-07-01.
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World – Russian-Ukrainian war has collateral damage to a third party outside the borders of the current participants, or another participant outside CSTO becomes part of the war, before deadline. ( 29% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-03-06.
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Politics, US – Will the US announce intent to allow any Ukrainian citizen who reach its borders to stay until Russia is no longer attacking or occupying Ukraine, before July 1st 2022? ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-07-01.
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World – Will the US militarily engage Russia by July 1st 2022? ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-07-01.
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I will complete at least eight Pomodori on Thursday, February 24 by 10pm EST on non-EA tasks, at least two of which are completed by 1pm EST ( 75% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-02-25; judged wrong by michaelchen on 2022-02-25.
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PRC troops invade Taiwan ( 20% confidence; 23 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-02-24; known on 2026-01-01.
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I will go to bed by 11pm EST on Thursday, February 24 ( 90% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-02-25; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-25.
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I will show up to ethics class on time on Thursday, February 24 (and arrive by 3:30pm EST) ( 90% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-02-25; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-25.
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I will pray at least five times on Thursday, February 24, with each of the five prayers spaced at least 30 minutes apart ( 90% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-02-25; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-25.
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I will complete at least eight Pomodori on Thursday, February 24 by 9pm EST on non-EA tasks, at least two of which are completed by 12pm EST ( 80% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-02-25; judged wrong by michaelchen on 2022-02-24.
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I will do two legit Pomodori by 2pm EST on Wednesday, February 23 ( 95% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-23; known on 2022-02-24; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-24.
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I will exercise for at least 30 min in the CRC by 9pm EST on Wednesday, February 23 ( 85% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-23; known on 2022-02-23; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-24.
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I will pray at least five times on Wednesday, February 23 (EST) ( 100% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-23; known on 2022-02-24; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-24.
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I will pray at least five times on Tuesday, February 22 ( 100% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-02-23; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-23.
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No board member will facilitate the EA @ GT lunch on Tuesday, February 22 ( 60% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-02-23; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-22.
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I will get back to G by 9pm EST on Friday, February 25 ( 75% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-02-26; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-26.
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I will respond to ᒉᐦᔅᐦᑎᓐ by 8pm EST on February 22, 2022 ( 90% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-02-23; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-23.
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I will finish at least eight legit Pomodori working on my NLP project on Tuesday, February 22 by 9pm EST, at least two of which are completed by 1pm EST ( 88% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-02-23; judged wrong by michaelchen on 2022-02-23.
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Russia to invade Ukraine by midnight EST, Feb 25. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-02-26; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-22.
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World War III by October 1, 2022 ( 5% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-10-02; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-10-02.
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Ich werde mich am Freitag betrinken ( 40% confidence )
Created by Jeedo on 2022-02-21; known on 2022-02-26; judged wrong by Jeedo on 2022-02-27.
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liz will die of covid by feb 27 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by issobel on 2022-02-21; known on 2022-02-27; judged wrong by God on 2022-04-27.
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alex will cry within the next three weeks ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by issobel on 2022-02-21; known on 2022-03-07; judged wrong by God on 2022-04-27.
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russia will invade ukraine before may 2022 ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by issobel on 2022-02-21; known on 2022-05-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-02-24.
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I will reach 100,000 lifetime book sales within 2 years (Currently 70,000) ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy on 2022-02-19; known on 2024-02-19; judged right by kadavy on 2023-04-06.
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Fiction, Glowfic – Albe from “A dath ilani EMT in queen abrogail's court” is really Queen Abrogail in disguise. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-19; known on 2022-06-18; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-02-26.
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Russia to invade Ukraine by midnight EST, Feb 25. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-19; known on 2022-02-26; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-02-24.
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Tech – There is strongly implicating evidence that someone did something causing the loss of >=1 QALY of life in order to profit on Manifold Markets by deadline ( 3% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-17; known on 2022-07-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-07-03.
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Tech – Manifold Markets implements a public API allowing buying and selling in markets by the 1st of July 2022 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-17; known on 2022-07-01; judged unknown by jbeshir on 2022-02-18.
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Tech – Manifold Markets implements a public API allowing retrieving predictions by the 1st of July 2022 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-17; known on 2022-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-02-18.
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Tech – Manifold Markets implements editing resolve time of markets before 21th Feb 2022 05:00 UTC ( 19% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-17; known on 2022-02-21; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-02-22.
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I will spend at least two Pomodori on ML interview prep before 1pm on Thursday, February 17 ( 100% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-17; known on 2022-02-18; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-18.
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Ich werde bei Tilman an der BA schreiben ( 40% confidence )
Created by Jeedo on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-02-21; judged wrong by Jeedo on 2022-02-21.
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Human level AI across all virtual tasks before 2028. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nathanpmyoung on 2022-02-16; known on 2028-01-01.
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I will spend at least two Pomodori on ML interview prep before 1pm on Wednesday, February 16, and at least 10 Pomodori in total by 10pm ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-05-17; judged wrong by michaelchen on 2022-02-17.