Commercial fusion reactors by end of 2040.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-22; known on 2041-01-01

• JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2015-04-22
• JoshuaZ said “http://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/33cr40/china_can_cut_cord_on_coal_mostly_by_2050_china/cql3pec is context. bet is $200 for me if it happens and $25 for Maxientus22 if it doesn’t. ” on 2015-04-22
• Chri estimated 30% on 2015-04-22
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 9% and said “This is possible, just improbable. Breakthroughs are hard to predict, which is what this will require. Your odds of 25% are crazy high though.” on 2015-05-31
• JoshuaZ said “Raahul, how can you consistently say 100% for http://predictionbook.com/predictions/108719 when you’ve said 9% for this one, and this one being true, makes that one false. ” on 2015-05-31
• JoshuaZ said “That means prediction 108719 should have a probability of at most 91%, and presumably lower since it is for 10 years later. ” on 2015-05-31
• themusicgod1 estimated 50% on 2016-07-09
• Baeboo estimated 25% on 2019-02-09
• amadeu estimated 10% on 2019-04-07