One of the next 5 years, the total population will be lower at the end of the year than the start of the year.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-21; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-19.

• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2015-04-21
• JoshuaZ said “Context: http://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/33da99/chinese_secret_society_challenges_illuminati/cqjwslu?context=3 $25 bet with Marakosii” on 2015-04-21
• jesselevine estimated 0% and said “I have to say, it doesn’t look good. A major event would have to happen, and I have little confidence in that. Furthermore this .svg from Wiki show a regression analysis that doesn’t dip below 0% http://goo.gl/x8s3DP” on 2015-04-22
• orthonormal estimated 5% and said “JoshuaZ: you put a 15% chance that it will happen in one of the next 10 years, but only 1% in one of the next five? http://predictionbook.com/predictions/71392” on 2015-04-29
• JoshuaZ estimated 4% and said “Good point. This one should have more uncertainty. ” on 2015-04-29
• JoshuaZ said “Note to future self: deadline set up later than final date to deal with processing of data if close. ” on 2015-04-29
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% and said “I have predicted the population to hit replacement level, but even then because of population momentum it will continue to increase in terms of total numbers for a 1-2 decades after.” on 2016-02-21
• telegrafista estimated 0% on 2019-02-14
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-01-19.